He restated the longstanding mantra from China on climate, saying the responsibility for blunting
emissions curves for greenhouse gases will remain with industrialized powers for a long time to come.
(Note, by the way, that what is true for a radiating object is that the amount of radiation emitted AT ANY PARTICULAR WAVELENGTH is an increasing function of the temperature, a fact that is not always obvious because people often tend to normalize the emission curves when showing
emission curves for different temperatures on the same graph.)
Not exact matches
«That flat torque
curve is there
for emissions reasons, because it suits the drive - cycle used in testing,» says Turner.
But the torque
curve is more linear
for better off - line performance, said John Schutz, director of powertrain and
emissions for Nissan Research and Development Inc..
A long list of technologies has been engineered to provide 255 horsepower, a unique three - stage torque
curve, very low
emissions, high fuel efficiency
for a truck, and instantaneous throttle response.
Eventually, by shaving away the two tails of the global development and
emissions curve, while also aggressively pushing
for efficiency and new energy choices among the global middle class, a happy medium with far lower
emissions could be achieved, according to the paper.
He recently wrote a Policy Forum paper in Science reviewing his and other research on widespread misunderstanding of this kind of risk, including a 2007 study he was a co-author of in which 84 percent of 212 M.I.T. participating grad students drew
curves for proposed
emission trends that would result in concentrations continuing to climb.
He wrote a fascinating piece
for the journal Science on the results of a study testing hundreds of very smart M.I.T. students to see if they could draw an
emissions curve that would stop the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from rising.
The task on
emissions is twofold — to bend the
curve of gas releases using regulations, incentives, education and standards, but (more importantly, to me) also to build the intellectual infrastructure and innovative, globally - collaborative culture that will be required
for the next generation to take that
curve down toward zero even as humanity's energy needs continue to rise.
Thus, solar cycle variations may or may not explain this «dip» (one similar - looking dip in two
curves is not a significant correlation and could easily be coincidence; there is a better - founded explanation
for this «dip» resulting from cooling by aerosol
emissions — see the figure from Hansen et al. coming up below).
The TAR showed sea level rise
curves for a range of
emission scenarios (shown in the Figure above together with the new observational record of Church and White 2006).
Apparently, environmental Kuznets
curves work in the case of cleaning up car
emissions because localised pollution provokes local pressure to improve the environment, whereas CO2
emissions are generalised and so subject to the «tragedy of the commons» (I typed «tragedy of the cosmos», which would be a good title
for something or other).
Modeled carbon isotope
curves (CIEs)
for 3 different
emissions sources over 4 different
emission timeframes.
Lots of black body
curves but not used to thinking about
emission spectrum
for a gas.
Taken another way, from a climate perspective, the total area under the
emissions trajectory matters more
for peak warming than the shape of that
curve.
Fitting CDIAC
emissions and land - use - change data to the Keeling
curve gave a much better fit at 285 years than 287, so
for the purposes of illustrating the follownig I've gone with that as a round number
for the time being though clearly this needs closer inspection.)
However please understand that I'm using CO2 as a relatively well - quantified proxy (thanks to both the CDIAC data and the Keeling
curve)
for all climate - relevant side - effects of rising human population and technology, of which CO2
emissions is just one component.
Even if it increases
for population (i.e. population grows more slowly in future), any matching decrease in doubling time
for per - capita energy consumption will offset that increase and CO2
emissions will therefore continue to follow the
curve.
That would not really impact the
emissions curve worldwide
for very long.
Also, when you compare the mathematical growth
curves for atmospheric CO2 and human
emissions the numbers
for the RE simply do not add up.
And
for those of you who are not as familiar with it, essentially what the Paris agreement did was,
for the first time, mobilize 200 nations around the world to sign up, agree to specific steps they are going to take in order to begin to bend the
curve and start reducing carbon
emissions.
By contrast, RCP 8.5 seems fairly close to what we are doing now — though with the agreement of the US and China, the world's largest emitters, to curb
emissions, and with optimism in the air
for international agreement in Paris at the end of 2015, there is some room at present to hope that we may, over the next few years, begin to bend the Keeling
curve downward a bit.
What I do not see is that what you suggest would have any significant impact on changing the growth
curve for CO2
emissions worldwide.
-- New technology of this sort tends to follow an exponential growth
curve, so that if properly managed it could become mature within a few decades, being then able to balance existing
emissions and start a drawdown process that could quickly make up
for the previous century's
emissions.
This occurs because the cumulative totals include contributions
for portions of the
emissions floor that are emitted after the time of peak warming, which can have no effect on peak warming, as illustrated by the green
curves in figure 1.
If one were to take the model and plot a
curve of
emission versus wavelength rather than simply summing up the values (integrating over wavelength), it would show a spectral
curve of a black body at 288.2 k with the absorption lines of the atmosphere dipping down to the point where there is a spectral
curve for a lower temperature at which there is
emission going on in the wavelength bands associated with ghg absorption.
The steepness of these
curves superimposed on actual national ghg
emissions levels is an indication of the enormity of the challenge
for the international community because the
emissions reduction
curves are much steeper than reductions that can be expected under projections of what current national commitments are likely to achieve if fully implemented.
The chart's two ten - year moving average
curves for the respective periods indicate a similarity that is striking, especially considering that modern human CO2
emissions are many multiples larger than the pre-1950
emissions.
Expensive short term acitons won't change the long term
curve for emissions.
However, we know that the
emission has been increasing
for those 20 years throughout, and hence the CO2 concentration
curve should be superlinear.
«Maybe the single most encouraging factor here is that the [climate] policies that China has put in place are in fact beginning to bend its
emissions curve downward,» says Elliot Diringer, executive vice president of the Center
for Climate and Energy Solutions, a nonprofit in Arlington, Va..
The
emission curve (looking down from space)
for the tropical Pacific in «clear - sky» conditions (ie, ignoring the 65 % of the time that clouds are present) tells an interesting story very similar to what the top post article says.
[16] Nasir M, Rehman F. Environmental Kuznets
curve for carbon
emissions in Pakistan: an empirical investigation.
There has to be an exploration of ways where these two seemingly opposed issues of economic development and low carbon can actually become complementary Unfortunately there is no historical precedent
for an increase in energy without increased greenhouse gas
emissions, which makes me extremely skeptical of «greenhouse gas Kuznets
curves.»
Here
emission curves are developed
for advanced biofuel supply chains to enhance understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation while accounting
for landscape heterogeneity.
Even a casual inspection of the
curves shows that the Paris pledges from the big three will provide no room
for future
emissions for all of the other countries in the 2 degree case.
If CO2
emissions from fossil fuels were the primary driver of the observed increase in CO2 the drop in CO2
emissions from 31915.9 mt in 2008 to 31338.8 mt in 2009 followed by the rapid increase to 33158.4 mt in 2010 would have influenced this
curve in some noticible fashion if your contention about CO2
emissions from fossil fuels being the prime source
for the observed increase is correct.
Environment Kuznets
Curve for CO2
emissions: A co-integration analysis
for China.
Baek, J., 2015, Environmental Kuznets
curve for CO2
emissions: The case of Arctic countries, Energy Economics, 50, 13 - 17.
Environmental Kuznets
curve for carbon
emissions in Pakistan: An empirical investigation.