There have been several other papers from GISS where GCM behavior was used to discount
lower empirical estimates of sensitivity; one paper critical Stephen Schwartz's temperature autocorrelation based estimate of sensitivity immediately comes to mind.
If I make some
rough empirical estimates of mapping rate and reads per lane, they generated a single Illumina run of data (7 - 8 lanes) per individual.
The width of the Gaussian probability distribution was determined individually for each experiment based
on empirical estimates of between - subject variability, taking into account the number of subjects in each experiment [9].
We recently published a study in Scientific Reports titled Comparing the model - simulated global warming signal to observations
using empirical estimates of unforced noise.
Marvel et al will be forever used by green advocates to
claim empirical estimates are biased low, and must therefore be ignored when choosing public energy policies.
HS12 uses the oxygen isotope record in ocean sediments Zachos et al. (2008) to estimate past changes of sea level and ocean temperature, and thus obtain a
largely empirical estimate of climate sensitivity.
Climate contrarians often argue that model - based climate sensitivity estimates are unreliable and
empirical estimates suggest that climate sensitivity is low.
1) Since you were a coauthor of two of the three
empirical estimate papers (which Marvel et al claim to be inaccurate), it seems to me that the journal editor should have considered you as a reviewer.
The person who was initially infected generated 12 secondary cases, in the first generation of the disease; 5 secondary cases were generated from those 12 in the second generation; and 2 secondary cases in the third generation, leading to a
rough empirical estimate of the reproduction number according to disease generation declining from 12 during the first generation, to approximately 0.4 during the second and third disease generations.
In response to this need, the study authors have created the
first empirical estimate of coral reef fisheries recovery potential using data from 832 coral reefs in 64 locations around the world.
However, as Hansen notes,
empirical estimates of climate sensitivity based on paleoclimate data are consistent with the sensitivity in climate models of approximately 3 °C for doubled atmospheric CO2.
a multimodel study is needed now to confirm that
empirical estimates are always biased low.
The pattern of attacking
every empirical estimate which yields low sensitivity by showing that GCMs give high sensitivity has now been repeated so often that you can count on it continuing.....
Kenneth, I really think it is all about reducing the credibility of
any empirical estimate which yields other than high sensitivity.
They want
empirical estimates of relatively low sensitivity to be wrong, and think (with no credible rational) that the behavior of a GCM to different applied forcings is somehow a refutation of empirical estimates.
Would the lower rate of cooling give us something close to
an empirical estimate of climate sensitivity to increased CO2?
On the contrary, HS12 shows that
empirical estimates are consistent with climate models (as has also been previously shown by Knutti and Hegerl, for example [Figure 4]-RRB-.
We also obtain
an empirical estimate of f = 2 - 4 for the fast feedback processes (water vapor, clouds, sea ice) operating on 10 - 100 year time scales by comparing the cooling due to slow or specified changes (land ice, CO2, vegetation) to the total cooling at 18K.
In this research team's mind, the answer is to look at the actual data and develop
an empirical estimate.
about the veracity of the many low
empirical estimates of sensitivity, so that those empirical estimates can be waved away when public energy policy is discussed.
kribaez, The paper is clearly an effort to discount the lower sensitivity estimates from empirical studies; how the Marvel et al work evolved is speculative, but the overall objective is obvious: discount all (low)
empirical estimates of TCR and ECS.
A 20 - year delay is equivalent to sliding the Keeling curve 20 years to the right before making
an empirical estimate.