Sentences with phrase «end model simulations»

Next, the magnitudes and patterns of climate change from high - end model simulations are examined and compared with the remaining projections, to see whether the behaviour of these two classes of model is very different.

Temperature and precipitation changes from the high - end model simulations (21 runs) were scaled to a global mean warming of 4 °C.

Not exact matches

The study used simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) run at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and examined warming scenarios ranging from 1.5 degrees Celsius all the way to 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century.

By the end of the simulated grand solar minimum, however, the warming in the model with the simulated Maunder Minimum had nearly caught up to the reference simulation.

Such simulations can't predict which fibers will end up in which bridge, necessitating the coarser - grained model the researchers described in their second paper.

During this period the participants will develop a full simulation project of their own from beginning (conceptual modeling) to end (analysis of results).

New and unique model simulations have also been made available through the MaRIUS project under which CPDN created a very large ensemble of possible weather and extreme weather in Europe from the beginning of the 20th century up to the end of the 21st.

I agree that a priori we can't assume that the high end simulations will fall by the wayside once more validation is done, but that is my hunch (based on model valdiation that we perform at GISS and my own experience with paleo - climate modelling).

Using simulations with 22 climate models and the MOSES — TRIFFID * land surface scheme, we find that only in one of the simulations are tropical forests projected to lose biomass by the end of the twenty - first century — and then only for the Americas.

MONITOR PRODUCTION With weather records, model simulation, and data collection, authorities can accurately project production levels, compare them with the number of products that actually end up in the market chain, and see whether supplies exceed the expected totals.

Where not available, and in the case of the «NAT» simulations, the mean for the 1996 to 2005 decade was estimated using model output from 1996 to the end of the available runs.

One of the consequences is that if you run multiple computer simulations of earth's climate, then average the results, the simulated ENSO events get scattered throughout time and end up being averaged out, so that the model average ends up looking like it doesn't have a strong ENSO impact even though the individual model runs do.

an analysis of the full suite of CMIP5 historical simulations (augmented for the period 2006 - 2012 by RCP4.5 simulations, Section 9.3.2) reveals that 111 out of 114 realisations show a GMST trend over 1998 - 2012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble... During the 15 - year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model - simulated trends whereas during the 15 - year period ending in 1998, it lies above 93 out of 114 modelled trends.

Hence we have to resort to simulations of such a climate using state - of - the - art climate models.Furthermore, small differences in how we initialize these simulations can have a significant impact on the end results — reflecting the fact that we do not have completely perfect models and that in the real world small differences in what is going on now can have significant effects on what happens in the future (to quote a famous statement, «The flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil can set off a tornado in Texas»), the so called «butterfly effect».

It even is principally possible that, for a given 15 - year time period, the temperature trend of one simulation with a model ended up in the «best» composite for this time period, and the temperature trend of another simulation with the same model ended up in the «worst» composite of the same time period.

As a consequence, pCO2 levels at the preindustrial end of all of the simulations were slightly higher (by 9.5 ppm to 10.6 ppm) than the observed value of 278 ppm such that GMT values there were also slightly higher (by 0.23 °C to 0.25 °C) than the standard DCESS model preindustrial level of 15 °C (41).

In contrast, in the Risbey et al. study, the information what specific models provided the simulations that ended up in the composites for any of the sliding 15 - year periods by chance, and this information would vary with the 15 - year periods, is not essential for the conclusions in the study.

So, is your argument now, Risbey et al should have listed those at least 48 and maybe even around 150 names of the models whose simulations ended up in the composites, even if this information wasn't relevant for the conclusions, because otherwise it would be «an outrage»?

Even simulations with a perfect model, which by definition would be the best for the task could have ended up in the «worst» composite for some of the 15 - year time periods.

You seem to think that if a simulation with a model ended up in the «best» composite, and another one one with another model in the «worst» composite, it would mean that the first model was «better at this task» than the second model.

He points out that the range of values for 2xCO2 ECS goes from 0.6 ºC (low end of Lindzen & Choi, 2011, observation - based on CERES satellite data) and 9.2 ºC (upper end of range of Knutti, 2002, based on a large ensemble of model simulations).

Say I have data on average precipitation for the last 30 years in the Southwest United States, as well as simulations from 20 different climate models of current and future precipitation in the same region, and I want to know what the expected change in precipitation will be at the end of this century under a specific emissions scenario.

Specifically, we compare climate model simulations of two end - member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2, and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the «low CO2 - thin clouds» or LCTC scenario).

Forty global climate model projections using the A2 scenario from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report have been analysed, and a number of simulations that project a high - end warming of 4 °C or more by the 2090s (relative to the preindustrial period) were found.

The 0C - 10C range for 2xCO2 climate sensitivity encompasses ALL the published estimates I have seen, from the Spencer and Lindzen lower end of 0.6 C (from CERES and ERBE satellite observations) and the Forster and Gregory range of 0.9 C to 3.7 C (based on «purely observational evidence» — see earlier thread) to IPCC's range of 2.0 C to 4.5 C (from model simulations based largely on theoretical deliberations rather than physical observations).

However, a later study by McIntyre and McKitrick, extending the data series from 1999 to the end of 2007, shows that this discrepancy between the model simulations and the actual observations still exist.

Working on a «best case scenario» of global carbon emissions reaching a zero level by the end of the century, the simulation designed by experts at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis and the University of Calgary, has concluded that recent rises in greenhouse gas emissions will nevertheless cause unstoppable effects to the global climate for the next 1,000 years.

Review simulation models to identify bottleneck stations and offer suggestions to break constraints and optimize the end of line throughput.