Was the March 2009 low
the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull?
When the adverse inflation - rate trend reaches its nadir, we will mark
the end of this secular bear and the start of the next secular bull.
When will we get to
the end of the secular bear market?»
And does the current economic backdrop yet have the characteristics that usually coincide with
the end of secular bear markets?
Not exact matches
But in the
secular bear cycles investing is a difficult task and one that at the
end of the day may find you distressingly close to where you started.
If the level
of inflation volatility continues to increase, it will become more difficult to argue that the
secular bear market has come to an
end.
Later, toward the
end of this
secular (i.e., long - term)
bear market, we could see stock prices fall below bargain levels (with P / E10 below 9) to extreme bargain levels, possibly to record lows (with P / E10 below 5).
Bulls, Bears and P / E10 Predictions I took advantage
of Ed Easterling's research to define the beginning and
end of secular (long lasting) Bull Markets and
secular Bear Markets.
Because multiples were low and inflation measures were flattening out, there was no signal prior to the nearly 30 percent decline during the summer
of 1982, which marked the
end of a 17 - year
secular bear market.
The book covers the factors that move Gold, why Gold fell into a long
bear market that would
end soon, why Gold's
secular bull market would resume and why gold mining stocks were / are the buy
of a lifetime.
At the
end of the 1966 though 1982
secular bear market the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost over (17 %)-- it had traded in a tight trading range for over 16 years.