The meat of the matter is why the different adjustment procedures don't agree and if there is any way to get accurate
enough temperature estimates to make useful estimates of the accumulated energy.
Not exact matches
The CDR potential and possible environmental side effects are
estimated for various COA deployment scenarios, assuming olivine as the alkalinity source in ice ‐ free coastal waters (about 8.6 % of the global ocean's surface area), with dissolution rates being a function of grain size, ambient seawater
temperature, and pH. Our results indicate that for a large ‐
enough olivine deployment of small ‐
enough grain sizes (10 µm), atmospheric CO2 could be reduced by more than 800 GtC by the year 2100.
«The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast
temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, by no means
enough but a lot lower than the
estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs,» said Ms. Figueres.
Enough for a good
estimate of global
temperature go back to 1850, which by my calculation is 167 years ago.
Given those assumptions, looking at the forcing over a long -
enough multi-decadal period and seeing the
temperature response gives an
estimate of the transient climate response (TCR) and, additionally if an
estimate of the ocean heat content change is incorporated (which is a measure of the unrealised radiative imbalance), the ECS can be
estimated too.
From Figure 1 it looks as though a window of no more than 120 months, and preferably only 60 months is desirable to capture the changing distribution of
temperature anomalies, however a shorter window may not provide
enough data to reliably
estimate the uncertainty.
For the rest of the world, the Historical Climatology Network datasets didn't actually have
enough rural stations with sufficiently long records to
estimate global
temperature trends.
For about 200 of the urban stations, they do not have
enough rural neighbours for their computer program to work, and so these unadjusted urban stations are not included in their global
temperature estimates.
The problem is that there's also a lot of extra variability in CET and that the available data is not sufficient for
estimating well
enough how much CET can tell about the wider
temperature trends at other times.
But linear regression is known to give the best possible unbiased
estimate of its parameters for any linear function of the data — if a regression can not give a reliable
enough estimate of the global average
temperature, it seems inevitable that the current method must be worse.
Toggweiler for example
estimates that the opening of the Drake Passage improve the rate of ocean mixing
enough to produce roughly a 4 C magnitude «abrupt» change in «global» surface
temperature.
Good
enough models may eventually provide an
estimate of the effect of CO2 on recent surface
temperature changes.
But the
estimates of «one to seven years» means that there will be no periods in the 21st century when
temperatures are low
enough to keep the corn earworm from damaging crops.
Choice 3: Can we devise a carbon tax flexible
enough to deal with the above uncertainties that: a) is fully refunded to every citizen and exporters, b) collected from importers, c) rises exponentially with future
temperature change, d) responds to the willingness and effectiveness of other nations to limit their emissions, and e) provides reasonable economic incentives to reduce emissions if the IPCC's central
estimates are correct?
We can at best
estimate that natural variability is an order of magnitude or two smaller than the GHE for climate timescales, which is good
enough, since our precision on
temperatures on climate timescales barely has
enough significant digits to be affected by a two order of magnitude lower effect.
Enough climate change and forcing has occurred that a rule of thumb might be to take the change (whether in
temperature or sea level) up to 2000 and triple it as an
estimate for 2100.
only since the mid-1960s that the instrumentation has been stable
enough and sufficiently well documented for these measurements to be of use for
estimating global
temperature changes.
I used the word «consistent» because observational data are not yet accurate
enough to prove the existence of an imbalance (e.g. 0.9 W / m ^ 2) capable of significant
temperature effect but too small to be precisely
estimated as the exact difference between two large numbers in the range of 239 W / m ^ 2.
A conservative
estimate is that a 0.1 percent change in solar total radiation will bring about a
temperature response of 0.06 to 0.2 °C, providing the change persists long
enough for the climate system to adjust.
This means that reanalysis and
estimates based solely on
temperature measurements can differ slightly — and
enough to affect the ranking of the warmest years.
Christiana Figueres quote: «The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast
temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, by no means
enough but a lot lower than the
estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs.»
Traditionally, the notion has been that it is
enough to give the tropopause forcing for the well - mixed gases in order to obtain an
estimate of the surface
temperature response.
As the summer waxed, old
temperature records fell all over the Northern hemisphere; in Russia the heatwave would be brutal
enough to kill 11,000 people in Moscow alone, and would cost the nation an
estimated 7 - 15 billion US dollars.
If you're a believer in strong natural variability, and you're looking to criticize the IPCC, you might complain that they don't reduce their
estimates of climate sensitivity
enough, or that they don't adequately discuss the increased evidence of the importance of natural variability in affecting
temperatures from decade to decade.