Sentences with phrase «ensemble average estimate»

Not exact matches

«We use a massive ensemble of the Bern2.5 D climate model of intermediate complexity, driven by bottom - up estimates of historic radiative forcing F, and constrained by a set of observations of the surface warming T since 1850 and heat uptake Q since the 1950s... Between 1850 and 2010, the climate system accumulated a total net forcing energy of 140 x 1022 J with a 5 - 95 % uncertainty range of 95 - 197 x 1022 J, corresponding to an average net radiative forcing of roughly 0.54 (0.36 - 0.76) Wm - 2.»

These small alterations are taken into account in climate models, with the average of all models (i.e. an ensemble forecast, a term you should know well as a former meteorologist), scientists (like those at the IPCC) can arrive at a sensible estimate of what we are likely to experience in the future.

They may get the physics wrong, they may use the wrong parameter estimates, they may or may not work, their use of ensemble averages to predict most probable trajectories may not be correct, but that doesn't mean that they are not science or that they qualify as religion.

«We use a massive ensemble of the Bern2.5 D climate model of intermediate complexity, driven by bottom - up estimates of historic radiative forcing F, and constrained by a set of observations of the surface warming T since 1850 and heat uptake Q since the 1950s... Between 1850 and 2010, the climate system accumulated a total net forcing energy of 140 x 1022 J with a 5 - 95 % uncertainty range of 95 - 197 x 1022 J, corresponding to an average net radiative forcing of roughly 0.54 (0.36 - 0.76) Wm - 2.»

GFDL NOAA (Msadek et al.), 4.82 (4.33 - 5.23), Modeling Our prediction for the September - averaged Arctic sea ice extent is 4.82 million square kilometers, with an uncertainty range going between 4.33 and 5.23 million km2 Our estimate is based on the GFDL CM2.1 ensemble forecast system in which both the ocean and atmosphere are initialized on August 1 using a coupled data assimilation system.

The weighted ensemble average for CMIP3 (blue thick line) and CMIP5 (red thick line) are estimated by given equal weight to each model's ensemble mean.

The weighted ensemble average for CMIP5 (red thick line) is estimated by given equal weight to each model's ensemble mean.

Right panels show the predictability horizon for annual mean precipitation (above the dashed line), soil water averaged from the surface, and total water storage (below the dashed line), estimated from the 39 individual 10 member hindcast experiments (red) and the 1st order Markov model with 10,000 ensemble members (black circle) for the b the northern, d southern, and f these difference indices.

The ensemble average over the three realisations, also shown in the diagram, is an estimate of the model s forced climate change where some of this natural variability has been averaged out.

For independent realisations, the natural variability noise is reduced by the ensemble averaging (averaging to zero for a large enough ensemble) so that -LCB- T -RCB- is an improved estimate of the model s forced climate change Tf.