Sentences with phrase «ensemble hindcast»

Using a total of 39 initial conditions chosen every five years on January 1st, we conduct 10 - year - long ensemble hindcast experiments.

The model ensemble hindcast tracks the two big dips in the real temps, as it should if the models know about El Chichon and Pinatubo.

This potential multi-year skill estimate is consistent with ensemble hindcasts conducted with the CESM for various initial conditions.

Not exact matches

A measure of skill of predictions thus should be that the observed climate trends fall within the range of an ensemble of hindcast predictions.

In practice, the probabilities generated from operational weather ensemble forecasts are not highly reliable, though with a set of past forecasts (reforecasts or hindcasts) and observations, the probability estimates from the ensemble can be adjusted to ensure greater reliability.

· Sakaguchi, K., X. Zeng, and M. A. Brunke (2012), The hindcast skill of the CMIP ensembles for the surface air temperature trend, J. Geophys.

doi: 10.1007 / s00382 -012-1313-4 who report quite limited predictive skill in two regions of the oceans on the decadal time period, but no regional skill elsewhere, when they conclude that «A 4 - model 12 - member ensemble of 10 - yr hindcasts has been analysed for skill in SST, 2m temperature and precipitation.

The ensemble members are then transformed into a probabilistic forecast distribution using the kernel dressing approach, in which the parameters of the kernels are determined based on the statistical skill over a set of hindcasts, under cross-validation.

Don't they give away the game when they use «ensembles» of model runs to get the best fit for hindcasting?

Refer to the (slow moving) gif animation that shows the observed (HADISST based) versus individual IPCC hindcast / fprojection ensemble members for the AMO (North Atlantic SST Anomalies Minus Global SST Anomalies): It's from this post: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/04/19/492/

Right panels show the predictability horizon for annual mean precipitation (above the dashed line), soil water averaged from the surface, and total water storage (below the dashed line), estimated from the 39 individual 10 member hindcast experiments (red) and the 1st order Markov model with 10,000 ensemble members (black circle) for the b the northern, d southern, and f these difference indices.

Temporal evolution for three - year - mean anomalies of SLP (contoured) and total water storage (shaded; units are mm) in CTL and the ensemble mean of hindcast run initialized in 240.

On the other hand, to the extent that such reliability can be demonstrated (even in a hindcast situation), it must be considered a positive indication in judging whether the range of uncertainty sampled by an ensemble provides a plausible range of depictions of the climate system.

On the contrary, global warming is a problem for which the world is rather well equipped to make informed policy, thanks to the IPCC reviewing the best available scientific knowledge, and thanks to ensembles of hindcasting - capable models constrained by (real - world!)

In order to sample the effects of error growth arising from imperfect knowledge of the observed state, four DePreSys ensemble members were initialized from consecutive days preceding and including each hindcast start date (23).