The largest total discharge into the Arctic Ocean (
ensemble mean values of 1.0 — 2.2 dSv) occurs during the onset of the Younger Dryas.
Annual means or totals for each pixel were averaged across all three reanalysis data sets to produce
an ensemble mean value.
The Ensemble I mean value is 5.61 million km2 (bias included).
Not exact matches
The mapping of the downscaled results can be done for multi-model
ensemble mean temperature trends as well as probabilities of exceeding certain threshold
values.
I have linearly extended the
ensemble mean model
values for the post 2003 period (using a regression from 1993 - 2002) to get a rough sense of where those runs might have gone.
First I calculated the land - only, ocean - only and global
mean temperatures and MSU - LT
values for 5
ensemble members, then I looked at the trends in each of these timeseries and calculated the ratios.
Both of those approaches seem to me to be more scientifically justifiable than just taking the
ensemble mean at face
value.
In b, T g is shown relative to the
value at the end of the calibration phase and where initial condition
ensemble members exist, their
mean has been taken for each time point.»
I know there are monthly
mean values of sub-daily
ensemble spread available, but these are not the same as the spread of the monthly averages calculated using each
ensemble.
As I wrote originally, the differences between the sum of (
ensemble mean)
values for the individual forcing simulations and the Historical (All forcings) simulations are ~ 10 % for ΔT and iRF ΔF
values.
The
mean September
value of the
ensemble mean is 4.46 million kmÇ (bias corrected).
a Regressions of winter SLP and SAT trends upon the normalized leading PC of winter SLP trends in the CESM1 Large
Ensemble, multiplied by two to correspond to a two standard deviation anomaly of the PC; b CESM1 ensemble - mean winter SLP and SAT trends; c b − a; d b + a. SAT in color shading (°C per 30 years) and SLP in contours (interval = 1 hPa per 30 years with negative values
Ensemble, multiplied by two to correspond to a two standard deviation anomaly of the PC; b CESM1
ensemble - mean winter SLP and SAT trends; c b − a; d b + a. SAT in color shading (°C per 30 years) and SLP in contours (interval = 1 hPa per 30 years with negative values
ensemble -
mean winter SLP and SAT trends; c b − a; d b + a. SAT in color shading (°C per 30 years) and SLP in contours (interval = 1 hPa per 30 years with negative
values dashed).
SLP (contours; interval = 1 hPa with negative
values dashed) and SAT (color shading; °C) from: a observations; b CESM1 simulation 14; c CESM1
ensemble mean; d CESM1 simulation 25.
The model's
ensemble -
mean P anomalies exhibit a realistic dipole pattern, with the largest positive
values (in excess of 0.75 mm day − 1) over northern Europe, especially the west coast of Great Britain and Scandinavia, and largest negative
values of comparable amplitude over southern Europe, particularly Portugal, Spain, and other countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea (compare Fig. 3e, g).
This range is constructed by computing the standard deviation (σ) of the 40 regression
values at each grid box for each variable (SLP, SAT and P) based on detrended data during 1920 — 2012, and subtracting / adding these
values (multiplied by two) from / to the
ensemble mean regression
value.
However, the
ensemble mean September 2008 sea ice conditions, using the range of historical summer weather, gives a
value of sea ice extent that is slightly more than 2007.
The modification of all feedback parameters results in changes of the sum of all feedbacks (water vapour, cloud, lapse rate and albedo), spanning a minimum — maximum range of 71 % (63 %) of the
mean value for the correlated (uncorrelated)
ensemble.
They actually regressed individual run
values and then took the
ensemble mean of the regression slopes.
The larger
values of both signs are stippled, indicating that the
ensemble mean is larger in magnitude than the inter-model standard deviation.
Honestly, the p -
values should be generated by constructing a Monte Carlo
ensemble of model results, per model, and looking at the actual distribution of (and variance of, autocorrelation of, etc) the
ensemble of outcomes where the outcomes ARE iid samples drawn from a distribution of model results, and then use a correctly generated
mean / sd to determinea p -
value on the null hypothesis.
Given an
ensemble of models from which an observable variable takes the
mean value m 1 = 0 (without loss of generality) and standard deviation s 1, and an observation of this variable which takes the
value m 2 with associated uncertainty s 2, the observation is initially at a normalised distance m 2 / s 1 from the
ensemble mean.
The
mean ΔT and ΔQ
values from an
ensemble of five runs were used.
Annual
mean values are given for each
ensemble member (r15) and the
ensemble average.
The p
values using the nine climate variables (denoted as «Overall» in Table 4) of MMEs are larger than the threshold (0.05, significant level = 5 %), which
means that, according to this analysis, these
ensembles have not been shown to be unreliable.