Sentences with phrase «ensemble prediction systems»

It is also a classic demonstration of the need for ensemble prediction systems on all time scales in order to sample the range of possible outcomes that even the real world could produce.

Pelly, J.L., and B.J. Hoskins, 2003b: How well does the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System predict blocking?

The NEMO model provides the dynamic ocean model used in the ensemble prediction system and the seasonal forecast system (S4).

The ECMWF model, the Ensemble Prediction System, [7] uses a combination of singular vectors and an ensemble of data assimilations (EDA) to simulate the initial probability density.

Gamma - SREPS: AEMET New Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System for Solar Radiation Fluxes Probabilistic Forecast

Not exact matches

Palmer, T.N., et al., 2004: Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER).

«Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions.

You could try quoting the very next sentence to them: «The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system's future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions.»

Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios [possible paths for greenhouse gas emissions] adds at least another 5 years.

Zhang (Applied Physics Lab, University of Washington); 4.1 ± 0.6; Model This is based on numerical ensemble predictions starting on 6/1/2011 using the Pan-arctic Ice - Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS).

GFDL NOAA (Msadek et al.), 4.82 (4.33 - 5.23), Modeling Our prediction for the September - averaged Arctic sea ice extent is 4.82 million square kilometers, with an uncertainty range going between 4.33 and 5.23 million km2 Our estimate is based on the GFDL CM2.1 ensemble forecast system in which both the ocean and atmosphere are initialized on August 1 using a coupled data assimilation system.

Ensemble decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) can skillfully predict past decadal rates of Atlantic winter sea ice change because they do well at predicting THC - driven ocean heat content change in the vicinity of the winter sea ice edge in the Labrador, Greenland, Irminger, and Barents Seas.

CAS = Commission for Atmospheric Sciences CMDP = Climate Metrics and Diagnostic Panel CMIP = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project DAOS = Working Group on Data Assimilation and Observing Systems GASS = Global Atmospheric System Studies panel GEWEX = Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GLASS = Global Land - Atmosphere System Studies panel GOV = Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) Ocean View JWGFVR = Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research MJO - TF = Madden - Julian Oscillation Task Force PDEF = Working Group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting PPP = Polar Prediction Project QPF = Quantitative precipitation forecast S2S = Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project SPARC = Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate TC = Tropical cyclone WCRP = World Climate Research Programme WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Climate Extremes • Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity • Melting Ice and Global Consequences • Regional Sea - Ice Change and Coastal Impacts • Water Availability WCRP JSC = Joint Scientific Committee WGCM = Working Group on Coupled Modelling WGSIP = Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction WWRP = World Weather Research Programme YOPP = Year of Polar Prediction

This study evaluates the hydrologic prediction skill of a dynamical climate model - driven hydrologic prediction system (CM - HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically - downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System prediction skill of a dynamical climate model - driven hydrologic prediction system (CM - HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically - downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System prediction system (CM - HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically - downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (Cansystem (CM - HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically - downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Prediction System (CanSystem (CanSIPS).

Our prediction is based on the GFDL - FLOR ensemble forecast system, which is a fully - coupled atmosphere - land - ocean - sea ice model initialized using a coupled data assimilation system.

He was a lead author on chapter 10 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report; he also coordinates the development of the multi-model ensemble climate prediction system ENSEMBLES, a large European Union research project.

Her PhD research is to develop a non-linear pattern recognition technique called Self - Organizing Map (SOM) based prediction system and a multi-model ensemble forecasting system for the probabilistic extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon 3 - 4 pentads in advance.