There is not yet any technical reason to assume the broad market has formed a significant bottom, but it is equally risky to
enter new short positions right now because stocks are due for a substantial bounce (the Nasdaq is on pace for its sixth consecutive week of losses).
As a «sell» signal matures and becomes more confirmed by time and price, short selling of weak stocks also becomes part of the trading plan, but for now it is still too early to
enter new short positions for momentum swing trading.
Again,
entering a new short position while a stock is breaking down below the low of a range is not something we are very comfortable doing:
In our original March 18 analysis, we said we were stalking $ GLD to
enter a new short position (or buy a «short ETF»).
Although not shown on the chart above, we subsequently began
entering new short positions on April 20, just in time to catch the Nasdaq's big breakdown below key support on April 23 (the following trading day).
However, even though our market timing system is still in «sell» mode, as it has been since October 12, we are now in a situation where the reward to risk ratio for
entering new short positions at current levels is simply not positive.
The last time
I entered a new short position was early January this year when I shorted STP (down 66 % since).
Not exact matches
The coin is in a weak
short - term advance, and traders should wait for the signs of relative strength and a break above primary resistance before
entering new positions.
The coin is still inside a forming long - term base pattern, but
short - term traders should wait for a break - out from the current pattern before
entering new positions.
Strong resistance ahead at $ 16 and at $ 18, and
short - term traders should wait for at least a move above $ 14.50 before
entering new positions, while investors could still add to their
positions here.
Ethereum Classic continues to be the weakest major
short - term, trading in a steep downtrend after falling below the long - term base formation near $ 13.50 The coin might remain stuck in the long - term downtrend so traders and investors should wait for some strength before
entering new positions, despite the attractive price levels.
While we expect the recent leader to regain its strength in the coming weeks, for now,
short - term traders shouldn't
enter new positions.
With the long - term picture still being bullish, we expect the uptrend to resume after the correction, but
short - term traders should wait before
entering new positions.
This means we view normal,
short - term pullbacks in uptrending stocks as buying opportunities to
enter new long
positions; our trend - following system does NOT allow us to sell
short quick pullbacks of strong stocks and ETFs in an uptrending stock market.
Therefore, we're not in a hurry to
enter multiple
new positions (either long or
short) ahead of the holidays, but will still consider
new stock and / or ETF trade entries (possibly on the
short side and / or inverse ETFs) with reduced share size if an ideal trade setup with a firmly positive reward - risk ratio presents itself.
Congestion (1) A market situation in which
shorts attempting to cover their
positions are unable to find an adequate supply of contracts provided by longs willing to liquidate or by
new sellers willing to
enter the market, except at sharply higher prices; (2) in technical analysis, a period of time characterized by repetitious and limited price fluctuations.
With that in mind, traders should wait for a
short - term trend change before
entering new positions, while investors could be looking for early entry points near the key support zones between $ 600 and $ 650 and $ 500.
Technicals also support more upside, and although this is not the best of times to
enter new positions, the market is not overbought yet either
short - or long - term.