Tallbloke: It sounds as though you've confused the idea of «probability» with the idea of «probability density» for the IPCC isn't saying that a sensitivity of 18.5 C is as probable as a sensitivity of 1 C but rather that the two sensitivities have
equal probability densities.
Not exact matches
The solution for the pressure at a constant temperature above indicates that a gas is perfectly happy to support its own weight and
density / pressure profile at a constant temperature, and at a constant temperature all collisions have
equal probabilities of heat transfer in all collisions in all directions.
In this case, the two
probabilities are virtually
equal, as the
probability density scarcely changes on the order of a hundred millionth of an SD.
The Wikipedia definition of the likelihood function is reasonable: the likelihood of a set of parameter values given some observed outcomes is
equal to the
probability [
density] of those observed outcomes given those parameter values.