For this, properly constructed samples using
equal probability of selection methods are required which are sufficiently large to investigate the issues raised in this paper.
«I don't care who makes (the juror list) as long as it is complete and as long as it is a full and accurate representation of the community, and that all individuals — whether you are poor, rich, white, Black, homeless or a homeowner — have
an equal probability of forming that list,» he says.
Over the last decade, record highs were more than twice as common as record lows, whereas half a century ago there was a roughly
equal probability of experiencing either of these.
I think that we can be pretty confident that if done properly, the 1 SD would be pretty wide and kurtosis flat, which can be expressed as «pretty much
equal probability of any outccome».
I can generate completely random data without any trend with noise mimicking that in annual temperature data and quickly find a 13 - year span somewhere in the mix that would appear to have a trend that's positive within a 95 % confidence interval (with
an equal probability of seeing a «significant» decline).
That is, the kurtosis of the model output would be flat, meaning pretty much
equal probability of any outcome.
Recall that in their 2001 Third Assessment Report, the IPCC gives a range of temperature increase between 1990 and 2100 of 1.4 and 5.8 ºC based upon the simulated output from 7 different climate models run under 35 different emissions scenarios — each of which the IPCC claimed as having
an equal probability of occurrence.
35 different emissions scenarios — each of which the IPCC claimed as having
an equal probability of occurrence
Early on in a search, a robot may know very little about where a scent is coming from — every direction in which it could travel has a relatively
equal probability of leading to the source.
To be perfectly practical if cazorla was in any of last 3 games there was
equal probability of us winning or losing.
Based on your logic, there is
equal probability of pink unicorns, teapots orbiting the sun and god (s).
This is not an approach that regards all things as having
equal probabilities of occurring.
The solution for the pressure at a constant temperature above indicates that a gas is perfectly happy to support its own weight and density / pressure profile at a constant temperature, and at a constant temperature all collisions have
equal probabilities of heat transfer in all collisions in all directions.
Nic Lewis made this point about Forster and Gregory, which the IPCC subsequently applied a uniform prior assumption that S had
equal probabilities of lying between 0 and 18.5 deg C, thus skewing the original data.
Not exact matches
Just some real data from wikipedia: «The likelihood
of a woman having an abortion is called the abortion index, with the value
of 1.0 as signed to a
probability equal to a population's average.
If it is a guess, the chances that it will be correct is 1/10, 000 and the
probability of all the three guesses i.e. the earth is spherical, light
of moon is reflected light and everything is created from water being correct is 1/30 x 1/2 x 1/10, 000 = 1/60, 000 which is
equal to about.0017 %.
In an online discussion on religion and Nazis, the
probability of a discussion involving Hitler's faith
equals 1 and will happen within the first x posts, where x is y %
of the number
of regular posters.
Consequently one must not seek to find the excuse for the witty expressions
of pain and
of sorrow in the fact that the person who uttered them was a superior person, well educated, intelligent, and witty withal, for the passions make all men again
equal — but the explanation is to be found in the fact that in all
probability everyone would have said the same thing in the same situation.
The
probability of winning a roll
of the dice, for example, is
equal to the proportion
of winning outcomes relative to all possible ones.
For example, MLB now has 30 teams, and if one assumes that in any year each team has an
equal probability — 3.3 % —
of winning the championship, then simple binomial statistics predict that the
probability that a particular team — say, the San Diego Padres in California — will fail to win a championship for 107 years in a row is 2.67 %.
Assuming all teams have
equal chances
of winning, then the
probability that the Indians will continue to not win for another 39 years is 26.7 %.
In one sentence: Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and colleagues found that if followed by measures
of equal or greater ambition, individual country pledges to reduce their emissions called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have the potential to reduce the
probability of the highest levels
of warming and increase the
probability of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
About half
of the respondents defined it as a
probability greater than or
equal to 90 percent.
The outcome
of a given division is unpredictable, but in homeostasis the
probabilities of producing two progenitor and two differentiating daughters are the same, so that on average,
equal numbers
of progenitors and differentiating cells are produced across whole population
of progenitors.
Michel and colleagues report that the
probability of an earthquake
of magnitude 6 or more is
equal to about 43 percent over the span
of 30 years, and 96 percent over the span
of 200 years.
In February
of 2011, CUNY's Office
of Institutional Research and Assessment, headed by University Dean David Crook, released critical data (obtained by Director
of Policy Analysis Colin Chellman using linear
probability models and logistic regression) demonstrating that, all else being
equal (i.e., taking into account all measurable demographic and performance characteristics), CUNY's transfer students were at a disadvantage in terms
of graduation compared to native students.
Assign
equal probability to each
of these classrooms, choose one at random, and denote it by.
Assign
equal probability to each
of the other classrooms in that have the same teacher as.
Equal changes in each of the four components listed above had roughly equal effects on the probability that a woman would enter the teaching profes
Equal changes in each
of the four components listed above had roughly
equal effects on the probability that a woman would enter the teaching profes
equal effects on the
probability that a woman would enter the teaching profession.
As journalist Louis Menand put it, «The experts performed worse than they would have if they had simply assigned an
equal probability to all three outcomes... Human beings who spend their lives studying the state
of the world, in other words, are poorer forecasters than dart - throwing monkeys.»
INCLUDES: 36 Student Activity Books (1 copy
of each
of the six titles per grade level, 32 - pages each) 4 Answer Cases 1 Teacher Guide FEATURES: Flexibility for task centers, independent or partner work, or one - on - one tutoring / remediation Clearly stated objective for each activity that allows you to differentiate Focus on foundational skills and concepts Engaging puzzle format for a fun challenge Immediate feedback for self - checking Titles: Grade 1: Number and Operations: Counting and Place Value Addition and Subtraction: Properties and Situations Addition and Subtraction: Strategies and Equations Addition and Subtraction: Beyond 20 Measurement and Data: Length, Time, and Analysis Geometry: Shapes and Attributes Grade 2: Addition and Subtraction: To 20 and Beyond Foundations
of Multiplication:
Equal Groups and Arrays Addition and Subtraction: Properties and Place Value Measurement and Data: Length, Time, and Analysis Measurement and Data: Time, Money, and Analysis Geometry: Shapes and Attributes Grade 3: Number and Operations: Multiply and Divide Multiply and Divide: Problem Solving Fractions: Fractions as Numbers Measurement and Data: Use and Interpret Data Geometric Measurement: Perimeter and Area Geometry: Shapes and Attributes Grade 4: Number and Operations: Whole Numbers Number and Operations Multi-Digit and Fractions Fractions: Equivalence and Ordering Fractions: Operations Measurement and Data: Convert and Solve Problems Geometry: Angles and Plane Figures Grade 5: Operations and Algebraic Thinking: Expressions and Patterns Number and Operations: Whole Numbers and Decimals Fractions: Add and Subtract Measurement and Data: Convert and Interpret Geometric Measurement: Volume Geometry: Graphing and 2 - D Figures Grade 6: Ratio and Proportions: Ratios and Problem Solving The Number System: Rational Numbers The Number System: Factors and Multiples Expressions and Equations: Write, Solve, and Analyze Geometry: Problem Solving Statistics and
Probability: Variability and Displays
INCLUDES 1 Hands - On Standards Math Teacher Resource Guide Grade 7 with 32 lessons TOPICS Ratios and Proportional Relationships Proportional relationships Constant
of proportionality Equations
of proportional relationships The Number System Add and subtract integers Multiply and divide integers Expressions and Equations Mixed numbers, decimals, and percents greater than 100 % Covering fractions, decimals, and percentages Fraction, decimal, and percentage combinations that
equal one Solving linear equations Two - step linear equations Geometry Scale factor Construct triangles Circumference
of a circle and pi Area
of a circle Area
of irregular figures Polygons: exploring area Statistics and
Probability Population sampling Modeling probability: building spinners Theoretical and experimental probability with spinners and dice Modeling probability: relationships between events Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and t
Probability Population sampling Modeling
probability: building spinners Theoretical and experimental probability with spinners and dice Modeling probability: relationships between events Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and t
probability: building spinners Theoretical and experimental
probability with spinners and dice Modeling probability: relationships between events Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and t
probability with spinners and dice Modeling
probability: relationships between events Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and t
probability: relationships between events
Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and t
Probability and fairness Finding
probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and t
probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and tree diagram
INCLUDES 1 Hands - On Standards Math Teacher Resource Guide Grade 7 with 32 lessons TOPICS Ratios and Proportional Relationships Proportional relationships Constant
of proportionality Equations
of proportional relationships The Number System Add and subtract integers Multiply and divide integers Expressions and Equations Mixed numbers, decimals, and percents greater than 100 % Covering fractions, decimals, and percentages Fraction, decimal, and percentage combinations that
equal one Solving linear equations Two - step linear equations Geometry Scale factor Construct triangles Circumference
of a circle and pi Area
of a circle Area
of irregular figures Polygons: exploring area Statistics and
Probability Population sampling Modeling probability: building spinners Theoretical and experimental probability with spinners and dice Modeling probability: relationships between events Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and tree diagram Resources Polygons: Exploring Area Sa
Probability Population sampling Modeling
probability: building spinners Theoretical and experimental probability with spinners and dice Modeling probability: relationships between events Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and tree diagram Resources Polygons: Exploring Area Sa
probability: building spinners Theoretical and experimental
probability with spinners and dice Modeling probability: relationships between events Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and tree diagram Resources Polygons: Exploring Area Sa
probability with spinners and dice Modeling
probability: relationships between events Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and tree diagram Resources Polygons: Exploring Area Sa
probability: relationships between events
Probability and fairness Finding probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and tree diagram Resources Polygons: Exploring Area Sa
Probability and fairness Finding
probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and tree diagram Resources Polygons: Exploring Area Sa
probability without replacement Compound events: making an organized list and tree diagram Resources Polygons: Exploring Area Sample Lesson
The real cost
of an executive option to the company (rather than to its stockholders)
equals the present value
of the
probability that option program will reduce the company's future access to capital markets, especially equity markets.
The flip side
of this 95 % chance
of success is
equal to a 5 % chance
of lifetime ruin
probability.
A company with a declining moat has a higher
probability of lower returns on capital in the future and should, therefore, have lower projected cashflows going forward, all else
equal.
As risk is
equal to the
probability of occurrence times consequences; I submit that the likely worldwide consequences
of abrupt SLR demands the adoption / acceptance
of a high confidence level (CL) that such an event will not occur (i.e. adoption / acceptance
of the Precautionary Principle).
Doesn't using a «baseline for anomaly calculation» «
equal to the time span being analyzed» decrease REAL extreme weather event
probabilities much the same way as using a sliding baseline minimizes the slope
of temperature increase?
As you point out, the IPCC does not explicitly state that the SRES scenarios all are
of equal likelihood, but, given what they do tell us (as you indicated) 1) we should not rely on the frequency distribution to develop
probability of occurrence, and 2) «No judgment is offered in this report as to the preference for any
of the scenarios and they are not assigned
probabilities of occurrence,» it seem to me that the best we can do is to make the simple assumption that they are equally likely (with departures from
equal probability randomly distributed).
Silver accurately said that the
probability of Romney being elected was
equal to the
probability of the state polls being biased in Obama's favour.
Actually, one
of the things I found most thought provoking was his description
of the media habit
of always having a commentator from each side
of a controversial issue — doesn't matter where the balance
of probabilities are — if there is a controversy, both sides get
equal time.
I had attempted a similar project at the 3rd conference with my poster «Comparison
of Climate Forecasts: Expert Opinions vs. Prediction Markets» in which my abstract proposed the following: «As an experiment, we will ask participants to go on the record with estimates
of probability that the global temperature anomaly for calendar year 2012 will be
equal to or greater than x, where x ranges in increments
of 0.05 °C from 0.30 to 1.10 °C (relative to the 1951 - 1980 base period, and published by NASA GISS).»
(The philosophy involved in this gets quite turgid, but a lot
of people follow the indifference principle and assign
equal probabilities to each possibility — assuming you know how many possibilities there actually are.
Under Cardano's theory
of fair gambling devices,
equal numerical values are assigned to the
probabilities of the ways in which an outcome can occur in a game
of chance.
The
probability that we will see sharp GMT rises (or could even be in the middle
of one right now)
equal to or in excess
of 0.2 C / decade is much higher than the
probability of a pause.
[1] These authors assert that four independent groups (who's individual qualifications are unknown to me) create four independent --(«can't call them scenarios — lets call them «pathways») that are
of «
equal probability»
Should one ignore the very high
probability of «
equal = no - change» or «better than» outcomes?
As I recall, this is based on the theory that the structure
of the black body surface is so complex that it has a continuous spectrum
of oscillatory mechanisms and can thus radiate or absorb at any frequency with
equal probability.
In this case, the two
probabilities are virtually
equal, as the
probability density scarcely changes on the order
of a hundred millionth
of an SD.
HPD ranges are located differently from those with
equal probability in both tails
of a
probability distribution; they are narrower but not necessarily better.