Not exact matches
Where the poleward &
equatorward currents of this intensified circulation converge — the centre of the gyres — surface water is pumped downwards into the ocean interior in a process known
as Ekman pumping.
So for AGW theory to have been correct we would have to have seen that hot spot at the top of the troposphere and the presence of that hotspot would have prevented the jets moving poleward, indeed it should have sent them
equatorward instead because it would have had the same effect
as a reduction of the height of the tropopause and an enhancement of the intensity of the tropopause.
As this mass of air generally warms it holds more moisture, intensifying the precipitation
equatorward of the deserts.
[2] Thunderstorm activity, or convection, within the band is dependent upon the season,
as the more
equatorward portion is most active in the Southern Hemisphere summer, and the more poleward portion is most active during transition seasons of fall and spring.
In addition, the
equatorward propagation of energy set up in July in the strong wave years is so powerful that energy continues to propagate towards the equator through October,
as shown in the first diagram.
For falsification we would need to observe events such
as the mid latitude jets moving poleward during a cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved
equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually negative Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar activity and a warming ocean phase.
The increased cloudiness is in parallel with albedo changes and of course the jets now seem to be more
equatorward again
as they were during the mid 20th century cooling.
The meridional cool phase occurring from the 1940s to 1970s and 1990s to present consists of
equatorward winds over the continents and poleward winds over the subarctic and sub-antarctic oceans, resulting
as Rossby wave formations.
Then a few years of stable albedo
as the jets hovered around about the same position but I would guess that just recently the jets moved even more
equatorward due to the recent long solar minimum and albedo has probably now gone up a bit more but we don't have the up to date figures yet.
In contrast, warm fronts are well defined at the
equatorward surface position of polar air
as it retreats on the eastern sides of extratropical cyclones.
The ASL shifts poleward and
equatorward,
as well
as eastward and westward with the seasons.
If the surface pressure distribution begins to shift to a more meridional /
equatorward pattern
as it did around 2000 then if previously it was in a poleward / zonal mode it is clear that warming will have ceased and cooling has begun due to more global cloudiness and less solar energy getting into the oceans.
For example,
equatorward - moving weather systems — known
as «transient eddies» — fulfill much of the poleward energy export required to balance the net energy input, with the energy transport associated with vertical motion times gross moist stability less important than in the ITCZ.
For the longest time it was thought that the MOC was «thermohaline», or sometimes referred to
as horizontal convection, driven by water sinking at the North Atlantic polar regions and gradually diffusing up in various
equatorward regions, which seems pretty inefficient.
The descending air in the subtropical high - pressure belts diverges near the surface; the air that does not flow
equatorward tends to flow eastward and poleward
as the midlatitude westerlies.
The thing is that
as regards the sequence of observed events leading to changes in tropospheric temperature trends and the cyclical poleward and
equatorward shifts in the air circulation systems the NCM is pretty robust.
For true falsification we would need to observe events such
as the mid latitude jets moving poleward during a cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved
equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually powerful Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar turbulence and a warming ocean phase.
As regards your weather report the mid latitude jets in the southern hemisphere clearly continue to be well
equatorward just like those in the northern hemisphere so you are getting more weather systems crossing the Cape region.
Thus if the two mid latitude jets move
equatorward at the same time
as the ITCZ moves closer to the equator the combined effect on global albedo and the amount of solar energy able to penetrate the oceans will be substantial and would dwarf the other proposed effects on albedo from changes in cosmic ray intensity generating changes in cloud totals
as per Svensmark and from suggested changes caused in upper cloud quantities by changes in atmospheric chemistry involving ozone which various other climate sceptics propose.
However, it must be borne in mind that the MOC can also include shallower, wind - driven overturning cells such
as occur in the upper ocean in the tropics and subtropics, in which warm (light) waters moving poleward are transformed to slightly denser waters and subducted
equatorward at deeper levels.
The air circulation systems in both hemispheres move back
equatorward and the ITCZ moves nearer the equator
as the speed of the hydrological cycle decreases due to the warming stratosphere reducing the temperature differential between stratosphere and surface.
In two hemisphere integrations, the water above the abyssal thermocline may be either «intermediate» water from the same hemisphere
as the channel, or «deep» water from the opposing hemisphere, depending on whether the densest water from the opposing hemisphere is denser than the surface water at the
equatorward edge of the channel.
Thus
as sea ice expands in a cooler climate, the high - latitude oceanic heat loss to the atmosphere is inhibited, the thermohaline circulation weakens, and the sinking regions move
equatorward, leading to a shallower and weaker deep circulation.