Here Isaac Held cautiously states that a 500 - year
equilibration time is more appropriate while outlining the limitations of simple two - box models.
Finally, we note that
the equilibration time of the δ13C of seawater is about 10 times longer than that of pCO2, potentially decoupling the δ13C of DIC from surface ocean nutrient and pCO2 values.
A very long tail can result with neither high ECS nor high
equilibration time.
«c) the information content in the temperature and OHC series is not sufficient to allow accurate estimation of ECS and
equilibration time; a flux response function with a very long tail (high ECS, high
equilibration time) may give a result similar to the Schwartz exponential response function with a low ECS and low
equilibration time.»
The accessibility of deep ocean heat to the climate system tells us that
the equilibration time relevant to multidecadal climate sensitivity estimates is longer than an interval based on upper ocean measurements, and so sensitivity will be underestimated if only the shorter interval is used.
The published values for the GISS - E model are 0.75 deg / Wm2 (or 2.7 deg for a doubling of CO2) and a full
equilibration time amounting to several hundred years.
Another issue is the use of an «
equilibration time» even though the analysis shown in some papers indicates that it may not be meaningful, in that perturbation response time is not constant but scales with time.
'' a flux response function with a very long tail (high ECS, high
equilibration time) may give a result similar to the Schwartz exponential response function with a low ECS and low
equilibration time.»
'' the information content in the temperature and OHC series is not sufficient to allow accurate estimation of ECS and
equilibration time;»
[Response: But the mixing time for the atmosphere is short, about a year for exchange between the hemispheres and much shorter for mixing along latitude circles, shorter than the thermal
equilibration time from rising greenhouse gases.
Overall, model experiments show a CO2
equilibration time of a few centuries [5, 6, 11, 12].
If we don't have to wait for
equilibration every time, surely it can't be too onerous to plot out the sensitivity from present levels to, say, 3x?
If we don't have to wait for
equilibration every time, surely it can't be too onerous to plot out the sensitivity from present levels to, say, 3x?
Not exact matches
From changes in local bond distances (OH · · O and O · · · O) with
time, we elucidated the structural changes in the far - from - equilibrium regime at short
times and near -
equilibration at long
times.
«What we realize is that in almost any quantum system, including on quantum computers, if you just let it evolve and you start to study what happens as a function of
time, it's going to thermalize,» added Neill, referring to the quantum - level
equilibration.
Corresponding
time for surface + tropospheric
equilibration: given 3 K warming (including feedbacks) per ~ 3.7 W / m2 forcing (this includes the effects of feedbacks): 10 years per heat capacity of ~ 130 m layer of ocean (~ heat capacity of 92 or 93 m of liquid water spread over the whole globe)
Thus the
time scale for
equilibration is proportional to the climate sensitivity * heat capacity.
IPCC: «
Equilibration of surface ocean and atmosphere occurs on a
time scale of roughly one year.
But a single
time scale just doesn't express the multi-compartment transfer rates — a fifth to a third of the CO2 remains in the atmosphere after even a 40 - year half - life of ocean
equilibration (which quite frankly agrees with my numbers — I get about a back of the envelope number of ~ 37 years half - life, depending on the saturation limits), and the rest will be around for quite a while.
Note thermo can't tell us how long but experimental evidence shows the
time frames to
equilibration are relatively short.