Depending on meridional heat transport, when freezing temperatures reach deep enough towards low - latitudes, the ice - albedo feedback can become so effective that
climate sensitivity becomes infinite and even negative (implying unstable
equilibrium for any «ice - line» (latitude marking the edge of ice) between the equator and some other latitude).
But of course the pace of the temperature trend also
depends on the global future emissions outlook and on remaining uncertainties surrounding
climate sensitivity — or the politically most relevant metric «Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), the amount of warming expected on a decades timescale after doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concent
climate sensitivity — or the politically most relevant metric «Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), the amount of warming expected on a decades timescale after doubling of the atmospheric CO2 con
sensitivity — or the politically most relevant metric «
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), the amount of warming expected on a decades timescale after doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concent
Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), the amount of warming expected on a decades timescale after doubling of the atmospheric CO2 con
Sensitivity» (ECS), the amount of warming expected on a decades timescale after doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
The IPCC AR4 states that
equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely (> 66 %) to lie in the range 2 — 4.5 C and very unlikely (< 10 %) to lie below 1.5 C. Annan and Hargreaves demonstrate that the the widely - used approach of a uniform prior fails to adequately represent «ignorance» and generates rather pathological results which
depend strongly on the selected upper bound.
«Results imply that global and regional warming rates
depend sensitively on regional ocean processes setting the [ocean heat uptake] pattern, and that
equilibrium climate sensitivity can not be reliably estimated from transient observations.»