Re 40 simon abingdon — there is very little mass loss to space (can be significant for evolution of conditions
over geologic time or in more extreme conditions, but not for Earth like conditions
over the
timescales over which climatic
equilibrium is determined), and latent and sensible heat are transported by conduction and convection and mass diffusion, which can't significantly extend outside the atmosphere.
Over very long time periods such that the carbon cycle is in equilibrium with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to global temperature of about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep ocean to come into balance), and variations over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitiv
Over very long time periods such that the carbon cycle is in
equilibrium with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to global temperature of about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter
timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep ocean to come into balance), and variations
over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitiv
over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitivity.
The potential change in the radiative restoration strength
over longer
timescales is also considered, resulting in a likely (67 %) range of 1.5 — 2.9 K for
equilibrium climate sensitivity, and a 90 % confidence interval of 1.2 — 5.1 K