The heat capacity of the oceans is recognized as a factor of enormous importance in delaying
the equilibrium response of climate to a CO2 - mediated forcing.
The equilibrium response of the control run (1950 atmospheric composition, CO2 approx. 310 ppm) and runs with successive CO2 doublings and halvings reveals that snowball Earth instability occurs just beyond three CO2 halvings.
Quantifying
the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research.
Also, it diagnoses only one measure of climate change (
equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature).
Actually, we're using the term climate sensitivity in the same sense,
the equilibrium response of mean temp to the surface radiative forcing associated with CO2 doubling.
Stouffer, R.J., and S. Manabe, 2003:
Equilibrium response of thermohaline circulation to large changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Not exact matches
In terms
of equilibrium, this has more to do with the child's internal
response.
The CCEA analyzed the 752
responses — which represent about one quarter
of the Diaper Bank's recipients — according to the Regional Economic Model Inc.'s dynamic
equilibrium model.
When the child is a little older, after about three months
of age, therapy also addresses head control with
equilibrium reactions (the natural
response to trying to maintain your balance) and head righting reactions (the natural
response to keep your eyes level when you are in different positions).
And is the current large scale ablation seen on these glaciers due to these glaciers coming to some
equilibrium with a warmer world due to coming out
of the LIA and
response times associated with the large masses involved?
The «
equilibrium» sensitivity
of the global surface temperature to solar irradiance variations, which is calculated simply by dividing the absolute temperature on the earth's surface (288K) by the solar constant (1365Wm - 2), is based on the assumption that the climate
response is linear in the whole temperature band starting at the zero point.
However, the
equilibrium response would be non-linear so it could be that most
of the distance to equlibration was made up in the first couple
of centuries.
They conclude, based on study
of CMIP5 model output, that
equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is not a fixed quantity — as temperatures increase, the
response is nonlinear, with a smaller effective ECS in the first decades
of the experiments, increasing over time.
Eventually the
response is a «give up,» after which, the US Dollar slowly overshoots and then finds a new temporary
equilibrium level, and the rest
of the world adjusts to it.
The functional
response for cat trapping (the offtake with constant effort per unit time) overlaid against the curve
of cat productivity suggested a stable
equilibrium point at low cat densities (0.07 — 0.13 cats km — 2).
If it takes 100 plus years to double the concentration
of CO2, and if the
equilibrium response is a 2C increase (Pierrehumbert, «Principles
of Planetary Climate», p 623), and if the increased CO2 produces increased vegetation and crop growth, then the present rate
of development
of non-fossil fuel power and fuel generation is more appropriate than an Apollo type project or attempt to get rid
of all fossil fuel use by 2050 starting now as fast as can be done.
There is still a rather broad range
of expected
equilibrium global temperature
response for CO2 doubling
of between 2 to 4.5 degree C.
Elevated trace GHG concentrations contributed an estimated positive forcing
of approximately 1.7 — 2.3 W m - 2 (Table S5) in addition to that
of CO2 and produced
equilibrium climate system
responses resulting in widespread significant warming, especially in the high latitudes (Figs. 3 and 4).
Do be mindful that the references he makes present two different forms
of sensitivity —
equilibrium sensitivity & transcient sensitivity or transcient cllmate
response (TCR).
Polar amplication is
of global concern due to the potential effects
of future warming on ice sheet stability and, therefore, global sea level (see Sections 5.6.1, 5.8.1 and Chapter 13) and carbon cycle feedbacks such as those linked with permafrost melting (see Chapter 6)... The magnitude
of polar amplification depends on the relative strength and duration
of different climate feedbacks, which determine the transient and
equilibrium response to external forcings.
Is that array (Hansen's
response function)
of percentages meant to indicate the percentage
of the
equilibrium response since a step-wise change in forcing?
Never mind the continuing increase in atmospheric CO2 — what happened to the 0.5 degree rise due to
equilibrium response to recent levels
of GHGs.
(change in forcing from bottom to top
of a layer = forcing
of that layer;
equilibrium temperature
response of a layer changes the LW and convective fluxes to restore balance).
If your water vapour is out
of equilibrium, you will have a forcing that is the systemic
response to the water vapour being out
of equilibrium.
That doens» t affect the
equilibrium increase in the upward flux at TRPP in
response, though it may change how much
of that is absorbed by the stratosphere (perhaps a reduction due to shielding
of water vapor and CO2 wings in the stratosphere by increased tropospheric water vapor (as it would by an increase in clouds, particularly higher clouds)-- PS feedbacks also change the baseline spectral flux in the vicinity
of the CO2 band.
We know that there were two other factors at play, increasing CO2 and higher insolation, both
of which also change the energy balance positively and therefore increase the
equilibrium response to the changes in the environment.
Because latent heat release in the course
of precipitation must be balanced in the global mean by infrared radiative cooling
of the troposphere (over time scales at which the atmosphere is approximately in
equilibrium), it is sometimes argued that radiative constraints limit the rate at which precipitation can increase in
response to increasing CO2.
(57k) When I state that the
equilibrium climatic
response must balance imposed RF (and feedbacks that occur), I am referring to a global time average RF and global time average
response (in terms
of radiative and convective fluxes), on a time scale sufficient to characterize the climatic state (including cycles driven by externally - forced cycles (diurnal, annual) and internal variability.
Instead, he inappropriately fed his Fantasy IPCC predictions
of CO2 concentration into equations meant to describe the
EQUILIBRIUM model
response to different CO2 concentrations.
The disequilibrium referred to comes from the fact that the ocean has a lot
of thermal inertia and takes a long time to warm up, whereas the atmosphere has a short
response time and quickly comes into
equilibrium with any given ocean temperature, corresponding to the current amount
of greenhouse gases.
Starting from an old equilbrium, a change in radiative forcing results in a radiative imbalance, which results in energy accumulation or depletion, which causes a temperature
response that approahes
equilibrium when the remaining imbalance approaches zero — thus the
equilibrium climatic
response, in the global - time average (for a time period long enough to characterize the climatic state, including externally imposed cycles (day, year) and internal variability), causes an opposite change in radiative fluxes (via Planck function)(plus convective fluxes, etc, where they occur) equal in magnitude to the sum
of the (externally) imposed forcing plus any «forcings» caused by non-Planck feedbacks (in particular, climate - dependent changes in optical properties, + etc.).)
Refering to bands where optical thickness is constant over the interval
of each band, if the atmospheric LW absorption is limited to some band (that doesn't cover all LW radiation), than increases in OLR in
response to surface warming will occur outside that band, so OLR will drop within the band — there will still be some portion
of stratospheric or near - TOA cooling that will be transient, but some will remain at full
equilibrium.
The
equilibrium response to an addition
of RF at a level is an increase in net upward flux consisting
of LW radiation (the Planck
response, PR) plus a convective flux
response CR; CR is approximately zero at and above the tropopause in the global time average.
My conjecture — and yes, I realize that it is only a conjecture — is that such a variable may exhibit excursions, in
response to the delta forcing, that overshoot its ultimate
equilibrium values, as a result
of the
responses and feedbacks mentioned above.
It might help Peter Huybers and his collegues if we understood more about the temperature
response of the albedo
of the calcite belt, and other bioogically variable components
of radiative
equilibrium that impact SST in both the southern ocean and the arctic seas
Once the ice reaches the equator, the
equilibrium climate is significantly colder than what would initiate melting at the equator, but if CO2 from geologic emissions build up (they would, but very slowly — geochemical processes provide a negative feedback by changing atmospheric CO2 in
response to climate changes, but this is generally very slow, and thus can not prevent faster changes from faster external forcings) enough, it can initiate melting — what happens then is a runaway in the opposite direction (until the ice is completely gone — the extreme warmth and CO2 amount at that point, combined with left - over glacial debris available for chemical weathering, will draw CO2 out
of the atmosphere, possibly allowing some ice to return).
And we know that adding the same greenhouse agents back will (absent hysteresis among
equilibria — which should be avoidable if we limit ourselves to considering only the Planck
response) warm the climate back up to a surface temperature
of 288 K.
So, an
equilibrium response is a convenient fiction which enables the science but is not a goal
of policy makers and so can not exist in the real world.
part
of the utility is that Charney sensitivity, using only relatively rapid feedbacks, describes the climate
response to an externally imposed forcing change on a particular timescale related to the heat capacity
of the system (if the feedbacks were sufficiniently rapid and the heat capacity independent
of time scale (it's not largely because
of oceanic circulation), an imbalance would exponentially decay on the time scale
of heat capacity * Charney
equilibrium climate sensitivity.
Changes in temperature cause changes in emission
of radiation, so that as the temperature changes in
response to an energy flow imbalance, the imbalance tends to decay toward zero as
equilibrium is approached.
Note that «
equilibrium» in this thread — up through
response 162 — was in terms
of climate sensitivity, answering the question about where the «extra heat» comes from.
You state in the
response to # 10, ``... There is no surprise that the CO2 in the atmosphere winds up partially in the oceans, nor that the amount
of CO2 going into or coming out
of the oceans varies in time and space — that's simple
equilibrium chemistry between the liquid (that is, dissolved) and gaseous phases...» Are the buffers a part
of simple
equilibrium chemistry, and where can I go to read up on this and how it pertains to the Models.
This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS - E2 - R climate model, that estimates
of the transient climate
response (TCR) and
equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were biased low.
Assume a
equilibrium climate sensitivity for doubling CO2
of 3 degrees, and a transient climate
response of 2 degrees.
The
equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the
response of the climate system to constant radiative forcing on multi-century time scales.
Underlying this entire context is the fact that we have not yet seen the
equilibrium response or Earth system
response from 350 to 400 ppm
of CO2 — since the oceans are warming and ice is melting and the seas rising.
The typical
equilibrium response times
of the climate system's various components range from a single day to millenia.
The latest modelling experiments take this into account, but it is easier to understand causes and effects in an
equilibrium -
response experiment.The first thing that happens when CO2 is doubled is that less energy in the form
of radiation escapes to space.
If the rather quick
response of CO2 rise / year just 5 - 9 months after temperature changes reflects
equilibrium with the oceans, then we are only in physical contact with the upper meters
of the ocean.
There may be temporary imbalances, but they must average out over time.In an «
equilibrium -
response» experiment, scientists begin by setting up a climate model with concentrations
of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at their present real - world levels.