Sentences with phrase «equilibrium sensitivity of»

The question you want to know the answer to is, what is the equilibrium sensitivity of the model?

The question you want to know the answer to is, what is the equilibrium sensitivity of the planet?

An equilibrium sensitivity of 6 C per doubling is suggested there and this feedback would be only part of that slow response.

Knutti and Hegerl in the November, 2008 Natural Geoscience paper, The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes, says various observations favor a climate sensitivity value of about 3 degrees C, with a likely range of about 2 — 4.5 degrees C per the following graphic whereas the current IPCC uncertainty is range is between 1.5 - 4.5 degrees C.

The first attempt at a consensus estimate of the equilibrium sensitivity of climate to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations appeared in 1979, in the U.S. National Research Council report of J.G. Charney and associates.

With an equilibrium sensitivity of about 0.8 degrees per W / m ^ 2, that's an increase of 0.78 degrees, or 0.195 C / decade

By focusing soley on the equilibrium climate sensitivity, the authors do miss a lot of features important to people about the overall climate system — for example, what's the equilibrium sensitivity of the carbon cycle to the temperature change brought about by 2X CO2?

The current crop of models studied by the IPCC range from an equilibrium sensitivity of about 1.5 °C at the low end to about 5 °C at the high end.

We show elsewhere (8) that a forcing of 1.08 W / m2 yields a warming of 3/4 °C by 2050 in transient climate simulations with a model having equilibrium sensitivity of 3/4 °C per W / m2.

The current crop of models studied by the IPCC range from an equilibrium sensitivity of about 1.5 °C at the low end to about 5 °C at the high end.

We show elsewhere (8) that a forcing of 1.08 W / m2 yields a warming of 3/4 °C by 2050 in transient climate simulations with a model having equilibrium sensitivity of 3/4 °C per W / m2.

Not exact matches

A leaked draft copy of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report (AR5) surfaced earlier this summer and triggered a small tempest among climate bloggers, scientists and skeptics over revelations that a key metric, called the «Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), had been revised downward.

Specifically, the draft report says that «equilibrium climate sensitivity» (ECS)-- eventual warming induced by a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which takes hundreds of years to occur — is «extremely likely» to be above 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), «likely» to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and «very likely» to be below 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 Fahrenheit).

The «equilibrium» sensitivity of the global surface temperature to solar irradiance variations, which is calculated simply by dividing the absolute temperature on the earth's surface (288K) by the solar constant (1365Wm - 2), is based on the assumption that the climate response is linear in the whole temperature band starting at the zero point.

Where (equilibrium / effective) climate sensitivity (S) is the only parameter being estimated, and the estimation method works directly from the observed variables (e.g., by regression, as in Forster and Gregory, 2006, or mean estimation, as in Gregory et al, 2002) over the instrumental period, then the JP for S will be almost of the form 1 / S ^ 2.

We have often made the case here that equilibrium climate sensitivity is most likely to be around 0.75 + / - 0.25 C / (W / m2)(corresponding to about a 3 °C rise for a doubling of CO2).

The happy band of denialists (presumably the gang of nine who advise Judge Alsup with their nonsense) have been «quietly but very busily investigating how much global warming we may cause, known as the «equilibrium - sensitivity» question.»

One common measure of climate sensitivity is the amount by which global mean surface temperature would change once the system has settled into a new equilibrium following a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 concentration.

Climate sensitivity is a measure of the equilibrium global surface air temperature change for a particular forcing.

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity -LSB-...] Newer metrics relating global warming directly to the total emitted CO2 show that in order to keep warming to within 2 °C, future CO2 emissions have to remain strongly limited, irrespective of climate sensitivity being at the high or low end.»

From the article: «The most likely value of equilibrium climate sensitivity based on the energy budget of the most recent decade is 2.0 °C, with a 5 — 95 % confidence interval of 1.2 — 3.9 °C»

Forecast temperature trends for time scales of a few decades or less are not very sensitive to the model's equilibrium climate sensitivity (reference provided).

The real «equilibrium climate sensitivity,» which is the amount of global warming to be expected for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is likely to be about 1 °C, some three times smaller than most models assumed.

The clearest indicator of those differences is the ratio between transient and equilibrium sensitivity.

Here's an interesting paper that is referenced in some of the listed publications: Meraner et al. 2013, Robust increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity under global warming, GRL https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01099395/document

There have been quite a number of papers published in recent years concerning «emergent constraints» on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), of both the current (CMIP5) and previous (CMIP3) generations.

It is worth adding though, that temperature trends over the next few decades are more likely to be correlated to the TCR, rather than the equilibrium sensitivity, so if one is interested in the near - term implications of this debate, the constraints on TCR are going to be more important.

Chris Colose @ 39 — Thanks as always, but I am baffled by your The larger thermal inertia of the ocean is important, but the higher sensitivity over land than in the ocean is also seen in equilibrium simulations when the ocean has had time to «catch up,» so that argument doesn't hold as equilibrium is approached.

In Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints [1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such constraints in Caldwell et al. (2018), [2] who concluded that only four of them were credible.

Charney (equilibrium) climate sensitivity is a (partial) indication of the system repsonse to instantly doubling CO2.

In Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints [i] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such constraints in Caldwell et al (2018; henceforth Caldwell), [ii] who concluded that only four of them were credible.

They conclude, based on study of CMIP5 model output, that equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is not a fixed quantity — as temperatures increase, the response is nonlinear, with a smaller effective ECS in the first decades of the experiments, increasing over time.

What is the reason for the changed lower end of the climate equilibrium sensitivity likely interval since the last IPCC report, 1.5 - 4.5 K vs 2.0 - 4.5 K?

Inverse estimates of aerosol forcing from detection and attribution studies and studies estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity (see Section 9.6 and Table 9.3 for details on studies).

First let's define the «equilibrium climate sensitivity» as the «equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric (equivalent) CO2 concentration.

ACT - activated clotting time (bleeding disorders) ACTH - adrenocorticotropic hormone (adrenal gland function) Ag - antigen test for proteins specific to a disease causing organism or virus Alb - albumin (liver, kidney and intestinal disorders) Alk - Phos, ALP alkaline phosphatase (liver and adrenal disorders) Allergy Testing intradermal or blood antibody test for allergen hypersensitivity ALT - alanine aminotransferase (liver disorder) Amyl - amylase enzyme — non specific (pancreatitis) ANA - antinuclear antibody (systemic lupus erythematosus) Anaplasmosis Anaplasma spp. (tick - borne rickettsial disease) APTT - activated partial thromboplastin time (blood clotting ability) AST - aspartate aminotransferase (muscle and liver disorders) Band band cell — type of white blood cell Baso basophil — type of white blood cell Bile Acids digestive acids produced in the liver and stored in the gall bladder (liver function) Bili bilirubin (bile pigment responsible for jaundice from liver disease or RBC destruction) BP - blood pressure measurement BUN - blood urea nitrogen (kidney and liver function) Bx biopsy C & S aerobic / anaerobic bacterial culture and antibiotic sensitivity test (infection, drug selection) Ca +2 calcium ion — unbound calcium (parathyroid gland function) CBC - complete blood count (all circulating cells) Chol cholesterol (liver, thyroid disorders) CK, CPK creatine [phospho] kinase (muscle disease, heart disease) Cl - chloride ion — unbound chloride (hydration, blood pH) CO2 - carbon dioxide (blood pH) Contrast Radiograph x-ray image using injected radiopaque contrast media Cortisol hormone produced by the adrenal glands (adrenal gland function) Coomb's anti- red blood cell antibody test (immune - mediated hemolytic anemia) Crea creatinine (kidney function) CRT - capillary refill time (blood pressure, tissue perfusion) DTM - dermatophyte test medium (ringworm — dermatophytosis) EEG - electroencephalogram (brain function, epilepsy) Ehrlichia Ehrlichia spp. (tick - borne rickettsial disease) EKG, ECG - electrok [c] ardiogram (electrical heart activity, heart arryhthmia) Eos eosinophil — type of white blood cell Fecal, flotation, direct intestinal parasite exam FeLV Feline Leukemia Virus test FIA Feline Infectious Anemia: aka Feline Hemotrophic Mycoplasma, Haemobartonella felis test FIV Feline Immunodeficiency Virus test Fluorescein Stain fluorescein stain uptake of cornea (corneal ulceration) fT4, fT4ed, freeT4ed thyroxine hormone unbound by protein measured by equilibrium dialysis (thyroid function) GGT gamma - glutamyltranferase (liver disorders) Glob globulin (liver, immune system) Glu blood or urine glucose (diabetes mellitus) Gran granulocytes — subgroup of white blood cells Hb, Hgb hemoglobin — iron rich protein bound to red blood cells that carries oxygen (anemia, red cell mass) HCO3 - bicarbonate ion (blood pH) HCT, PCV, MHCT hematocrit, packed - cell volume, microhematocrit (hemoconcentration, dehydration, anemia) K + potassium ion — unbound potassium (kidney disorders, adrenal gland disorders) Lipa lipase enzyme — non specific (pancreatitis) LYME Borrelia spp. (tick - borne rickettsial disease) Lymph lymphocyte — type of white blood cell MCHC mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (anemia, iron deficiency) MCV mean corpuscular volume — average red cell size (anemia, iron deficiency) Mg +2 magnesium ion — unbound magnesium (diabetes, parathyroid function, malnutrition) MHCT, HCT, PCV microhematocrit, hematocrit, packed - cell volume (hemoconcentration, dehydration, anemia) MIC minimum inhibitory concentration — part of the C&S that determines antimicrobial selection Mono monocyte — type of white blood cell MRI magnetic resonance imaging (advanced tissue imaging) Na + sodium ion — unbound sodium (dehydration, adrenal gland disease) nRBC nucleated red blood cell — immature red blood cell (bone marrow damage, lead toxicity) PCV, HCT, MHCT packed - cell volume, hematocrit, microhematocrit (hemoconcentration, dehydration, anemia) PE physical examination pH urine pH (urinary tract infection, urolithiasis) Phos phosphorus (kidney disorders, ketoacidosis, parathyroid function) PLI pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity (pancreatitis) PLT platelet — cells involved in clotting (bleeding disorders) PT prothrombin time (bleeding disorders) PTH parathyroid hormone, parathormone (parathyroid function) Radiograph x-ray image RBC red blood cell count (anemia) REL Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever / Ehrlichia / Lyme combination test Retic reticulocyte — immature red blood cell (regenerative vs. non-regenerative anemia) RMSF Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever SAP serum alkaline phosphatase (liver disorders) Schirmer Tear Test tear production test (keratoconjunctivitis sicca — dry eye,) Seg segmented neutrophil — type of white blood cell USG Urine specific gravity (urine concentration, kidney function) spec cPL specific canine pancreatic lipase (pancreatitis)-- replaces the PLI test spec fPL specific feline pancreatic lipase (pancreatitis)-- replaces the PLI test T4 thyroxine hormone — total (thyroid gland function) TLI trypsin - like immunoreactivity (exocrine pancreatic insufficiency) TP total protein (hydration, liver disorders) TPR temperature / pulse / respirations (physical exam vital signs) Trig triglycerides (fat metabolism, liver disorders) TSH thyroid stimulating hormone (thyroid gland function) UA urinalysis (kidney function, urinary tract infection, diabetes) Urine Cortisol - Crea Ratio urine cortisol - creatine ratio (screening test for adrenal gland disease) Urine Protein - Crea Ratio urine protein - creatinine ratio (kidney disorders) VWF VonWillebrands factor (bleeding disorder) WBC white blood cell count (infection, inflammation, bone marrow suppression)

Using the middle of the range of climate sensitivities of 3 oC of warming at equilibrium per doubling of [CO2], a rise of [CO2] from 280 - 310 ppm should give 0.44 oC at equilibrium.

ignoring the energy cost of water and latent heat transport [in the hydrologic cycle] leads to equilibrium calculations overestimating the climate sensitivity)...

A few things are unequivocal, perhaps (doubling from the present concentration of CO2 will take 140 years [give or take]; the idea that the changes in climate since 1880 have been in the aggregate beneficial; it takes more energy to vaporize a kg of water than to raise its temperature by 1K; ignoring the energy cost of water and latent heat transport [in the hydrologic cycle] leads to equilibrium calculations overestimating the climate sensitivity), but most are propositions that I think need more research, but can't be refuted on present evidence.

To date, I think that the sensitivity has been overestimated by the equilibrium calculations and the GCMs, and the benefits of increased CO2 over at least the next few decades have been underestimated.

While I'm posting (I can see how you guys get into this) I'm also very uncomfortable with your notion of «tacit knowledge:» it certainly seems to be tacit knowledge in the blogosphere that the chances of the climate sensitivity (equilibrium warming on indefinite stabilization at 560ppm CO2, for the non-enthusiasts) being greater than or equal to 6 degrees are too small to be worth worrying about (meaning down at the level of an asteroid strike).

Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is 6 °C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice - free Antarctica.»

Andrew (23) and Bryan (35): The problem is that climate sensitivity and thermal inertia could be traded off mathematically in producing a decent match with the observed temeperature record of the 20th century (because it's out of equilibrium.

So the marked early 20th century warming was likely a mixture of recovery from volcanic forcing and accumulated (but masked) greenhouse forcing [the 1880 - 1940 [CO2] rise from ~ 290 — ~ 309 ppm was quite significant (equivalent to nearly 0.3 oC at equilibrium with a mid-range climate sensitivity)-RSB-.

Do be mindful that the references he makes present two different forms of sensitivity — equilibrium sensitivity & transcient sensitivity or transcient cllmate response (TCR).

At the low end of sensitivity, we are living in a period of over reaction by the climate and the rate of warming should tend to revert lower towards the equilibrium value.

captdallas2 @ 130 — To become more impressed by the estimate of about 3 K for Charney equilibrium climate sensitivity, read papers by Annan & Hargreaves.

The happy band of denialists (presumably the gang of nine who advise Judge Alsup with their nonsense) have been «quietly but very busily investigating how much global warming we may cause, known as the «equilibrium - sensitivity» question.»

The total surface and atmospheric forcings led Hansen et al. (1993) to infer an equilibrium global climate sensitivity of 3 + / - 1C for doubled CO2 forcing, equivalent to 3/4 + / - 1/4 CW ^ -1 m ^ -2.

Your attempt to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity from the 20th C won't work because a) the forcings are not that well known (so the error in your estimate is large), b) the climate is not in equilibrium — you need to account for the uptake of heat in the ocean at least.