But while there has been some spillover
of equity market weakness, the difficulties in credit markets at this stage have been mainly confined to the industrial countries.
The fact that the S&P 500 is currently within about 1 % of those levels suggests some level of economic concern already, but our concerns would be substantially amplified in the event of fresh and
significant equity market weakness.
Accordingly, a year - over-year increase in new claims of about 20 % (which would currently equate to a level of about 340,000 weekly new claims) would create a significant concern of a new recession in progress, particularly if coupled with other evidence such
as equity market weakness and slowing growth in real personal income.
If the Rick Saccone loses, then that could add to
the equity market weakness.