With
equity valuations at historically high levels, I understand being light on equities right now.
«The Shanghai Composite in aggregate is now trading back well below average global
equity valuations at the headline index level,» says Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist.
The averages above do hide a significant amount of variation in returns, and the direction of
equity valuations at any given point in time also matters.
With
equity valuations at historic highs and government bonds barely eking out a return, junk bonds offer solid yields at a good price, he reasons.
Sara Silverstein: So just to start, what do you think about pressure on
equity valuations at the levels that they are at right now?
Not exact matches
He calculated if the 90 U.S. unicorns were to go public
at a 20 percent premium to their most recent
valuations, investors would have to create a staggering $ 131 billion in new
equity.
Select startups that receive an upfront investment of $ 50,000 for 5 %
equity,
at a $ 1,000,000
valuation.
Because when you actually look
at the relationship across sectors, and you look
at their
valuations based on return on
equity, or other measures, all sectors seem to be about fairly valued.
For one, investors are going to have to get comfortable taking on more risk in their
equity portfolios by buying stocks
at higher
valuations.
At the same time, the «cliff deal» removes a layer of uncertainty, which should also help to compress risk spreads and support
equity valuations.»
Jet previously raised $ 225 million
at a $ 600 million
valuation to take on Amazon — the most
equity funding ever raised in the first 12 months by a US commerce company.
But he noted that this may have been Foursquare's best option
at the time — else it fork over a greater percentage of the company's
equity due to a potentially reduced
valuation.
During that earlier period, American business earned an average of 11 percent or so on
equity capital employed and stocks, in aggregate, sold
at valuations far above that
equity capital (book value), averaging over 150 cents on the dollar.
Jet previously raised $ 225 million
at a $ 600 million
valuation to take on Amazon — the most
equity funding ever raised by a US commerce company in its first 12 months.
At these high
equity valuations, that could really scare investors.»
«
Equity markets have really been buoyant for a long time now and
valuations are extremely high, higher than you can actually justify based on fundamentals,» Allianz Chief Executive Oliver Bate told CNBC Saturday
at the China Development Forum in Beijing.
«While everyone is focused on
valuation and bubbles (to some degree rightfully so), the fact remains that the last few years have been supported by a low level of net
equity issuance that has, all else equal, supported prices,» says Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist
at BTIG.
Today, Murphy serves as CTO of Snapchat, which is currently raising $ 650 million in
equity at a $ 16 billion
valuation.
«Now when I talk to those same investors, they basically say if you outspend cash flow on stupid investments and destroy capital, I'm not just going to be mad
at you, I will punish you and I will destroy your
equity valuation, and I will never ever own your stock again,» he said.
If somebody gives you money under a convertible debt note
at a $ 2.5 m
valuation and another person funds you with convertible debt
at $ 5m
valuation (high resolution financing) and your
equity round finally closes
at a $ 10 million
valuation... what technically happens?
«While the stock
at its current
valuation is discounting the end of the Yieldco business model, we believe that management has a nice cushion of cash and several options to ride through this market dislocation until cost of raising
equity for Yieldcos normalizes,» RBC Capital analysts said.
For instance,
equity crowdfunding is not a great solution
at an early, early stage, because it can be really expensive in the long term, when you have a low
valuation... So we would help an entrepreneur understand, well, let's look
at debt - based crowdfunding,» he says.
The New Banks have kept their corporate cash cows afloat while window - dressing owners»
equity with unrealistic
valuations of consumer debts that can not be paid, except
at the cost of bankrupting the economy.
In April 2014, Airbnb had closed a $ 450 million round of funding, led by private
equity firm TPG,
at a $ 10 billion
valuation.
When finally, I sat down and started talking, they basically tallied up the hours I spent and gave a choice to get
equity at current $ 3 mil
valuation or get full cash for my time or blend of both cash /
equity.
We view the present environment as an opportunity to add quality
equity holdings
at this level or
at cheaper
valuations.
Other private
equity firms have so far balked
at Court Square's
valuation expectations of close to $ 2 billion, sources have said.
These behavioral finance influences can skew a portfolio's overall allocations toward an overemphasis of potentially higher - yielding
equities that in some instances may represent more downside risk than upside potential
at current
valuation levels.
«Absent material
equity valuation improvements for Ares and KKR, we expect further conversions of Fitch - rated alternative investment managers to be decreasingly likely, given that the remaining managers generally have more incentive income which would not benefit from the lower tax rate,» said Meghan Neenan, head of North American Non-Bank Financial Institutions
at Fitch.
Also, European
equities appear to trade
at relatively cheaper
valuations than U.S.
equities and offer a higher dividend yield.
Looking
at valuations overall, we have observed that earnings of many EM companies are gradually improving, in terms of profitability, margins and return on
equity, after these variables came under pressure recently.
When we look
at strategies, long short
equity specifically, we anticipate the market will be more discerning with regard to fundamentals like revenue growth and
valuations.
At this point, obscene
equity valuations are already baked in the cake on
valuation measures that are reliably correlated with actual subsequent stock market returns.
Equities are essentially 50 - year duration investments
at current
valuations, and even if investors are passive and don't hold any view about future market returns
at all, one of the basic principles of financial planning is to align the duration of ones assets with the expected horizon over which the funds are expected to be spent.
Given the absence of a public trading market of our common stock, and in accordance with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants Accounting and
Valuation Guide,
Valuation of Privately - Held Company
Equity Securities Issued as Compensation, our board of directors exercised reasonable judgment and considered numerous and subjective factors to determine the best estimate of fair value of our common stock, including independent third - party
valuations of our common stock; the prices
at which we sold shares of our convertible preferred stock to outside investors in arms - length transactions; the rights, preferences, and privileges of our convertible preferred stock relative to those of our common stock; our operating results, financial position, and capital resources; current business conditions and projections; the lack of marketability of our common stock; the hiring of key personnel and the experience of our management; the introduction of new products; our stage of development and material risks related to our business; the fact that the option grants involve illiquid securities in a private company; the likelihood of achieving a liquidity event, such as an initial public offering or a sale of our company given the prevailing market conditions and the nature and history of our business; industry trends and competitive environment; trends in consumer spending, including consumer confidence; and overall economic indicators, including gross domestic product, employment, inflation and interest rates, and the general economic outlook.
But with long - term bonds and non-cyclical
equity sectors trading
at historically extreme
valuations while cyclical sectors trade
at valuations below their long - term average, we think that risk aversion is creating numerous investment opportunities for investors willing to build a portfolio of more economically sensitive companies.
For instance, as measured by price - to - earnings (P / E) and price - to - book (P / B)
valuations metrics, EM stocks continue to trade
at a roughly 30 % discount to the broader global
equity market (source: MSCI, as of 3/31/2015).
We allow that short - term interest rates may be pegged well below historical norms for several more years, and we know that for every year that short - term interest rates are held
at zero (rather than a historically normal level of 4 %), one can «justify»
equity valuations about 4 % above historical norms — a premium that removes that same 4 % from prospective future stock returns.
When and if interest rates begin to rise, corporates may have the incentive to tilt their capital structure back to
equity, or
at least to reduce stock repurchases, which could raise further questions about stock market
valuations.»
Despite my admitted stumble in the half - cycle since 2009, it's perplexing that the
equity market is
at the second greatest
valuation extreme in the history of the United States, on what are objectively the most durably reliable
valuation measures available, but it has somehow become an affront to suggest that this will not end well.
Both
valuations and consumer sentiment may be
at high levels, but with stable real yields, rising productivity and «normalised»
valuations, the
equity outlook is not necessarily negative — as long as economic growth continues.
It is not without its faults, but it is a decent way to look
at the overall
valuation of the
equity market and the potential total returns over the next 10 years.
In our 1Q2015 letter, we noted that
equity - market
valuations were
at dangerous levels by three different measures: the CAPE ratio, the Q - ratio, and the Buffett indicator, which are discussed
at length in our last letter.
The Series A Preferred shall also be convertible into any future series of Preferred Stock (the «Future Preferred») under either of the following circumstances: (a) if such conversion is approved by the Board or (b) if such conversion is in connection with a future Preferred Stock
equity financing in which the Company's fully diluted pre-money
valuation is greater than the Company's fully diluted post-money
valuation immediately following the Series A Financing contemplated by this term sheet (a «Future Financing»), in either case, on a one - for - one basis (subject to anti-dilution adjustment)
at the option of the holder; provided however, if such conversion is in connection with a Future Financing, that the holder may convert into shares of Future Preferred only in the event that all of such shares of Future Preferred received by the holder upon conversion are sold to an Approved Investor (as defined below) no later than 90 days following the first closing of the Future Financing
at a price per share no lower than the price per share
at which the Company sells shares of such Future Preferred in the Future Financing and, provided further, that such Approved Investor is not an affiliate, family member, or related party of the holder.
The YC documents are probably fine in situations where the investor (i) wishes to purchase
equity rather than convertible debt, (ii) is otherwise somewhat indifferent on terms other than percentage ownership of the company, liquidation preference and right of first offer in future financings, (iii) is investing
at a fairly low
valuation (i.e. a couple of million dollars), and (iv) is only investing a small amount (i.e. a couple hundred thousand dollars or less).
Stronger growth, higher inflation and low
equities valuations make a compelling case for a fresh look
at Japan.
Our general take on
equities is that
valuations are a bit stretched
at the moment.
If
valuations remain high or increase,
at some point higher yields may make bonds more attractive relative to
equities.
However, I believe that companies are generally better off with convertible debt rather than an
equity financing
at a low
valuation.
European
equities have done well this year, but they are still trading
at a
valuation discount to U.S. peers.