Specifically, the «Fed Model» — the notion that equity earnings yields and 10 - year Treasury yields should move in tandem — is an artifact restricted to the period between 1980 and 1997, when both equity and bond yields fell in virtually one - for - one lock - step — bond yields because of disinflation, and
equity yields because of what was actually a move from extreme secular undervaluation to extreme secular overvaluation.
Not exact matches
Most investors shy away from bonds
because they
yield (or return) less than
equities and tend to be more complex in nature.
This is especially true on the downside
because high
yield investors typically are «privy» to bank credit information — trust me, this is true, as our high
yield desk was next to the bank debt trading desk and we were very friendly with each other — and can see when corporate numbers are deteriorating well in advance of
equity analysts and investors.
In addition, dividend stocks often cause a stock to fall far less than non-dividend paying
equities because they become «
yield supported».
Their cost of capital is a function partly of low interest rates and part of the implicit share price is a function of the fact that investors have looked at
equities for dividends rather than bonds for
yield because the bond market is so expensive.
Also
because of regulations, smaller retail investors have effectively been blocked from participating in higher -
yielding investments — namely, private
equity and venture capital, whose 10 - year compound annual growth rates have averaged 11.8 and 11 percent, quite a bit more than Treasuries,
equities and other common asset classes.
Putting aside the performance of bonds during the bear market beginning in 1980 (both
because the starting
yields on Treasuries were so high but also
because the bear market was relatively mild as the decline began from relatively low levels of valuation), what's interesting about the above chart is how dependably bonds protected a portfolio during
equity bear markets.
The answer is:
because rising
yields on credit instruments have begun to put downward pressure on
equity prices.
High
yield bonds are interesting
because they have some properties of Treasury bonds, and some properties of
equities.
With fully two - thirds of its money invested in domestic and foreign stocks, private
equity and «absolute return strategies» (i.e., hedge funds), the New York State pension fund has a risky asset allocation profile typical of its counterparts across the country —
because chasing risk is its only hope of earning 7 percent a year in a market where the most secure long - term bonds
yield barely 2 percent.
High
yield bonds are interesting
because they have some properties of Treasury bonds, and some properties of
equities.
At present, the relationship between earnings and bond
yields seems tighter
because of the large substitution of debt for
equity going on, but that's not a normal thing in the long run.
Because they are more
equity - like, high
yield bonds have intrinsic risk that is independent of the level of
yields in high quality bonds, the leading example of which are Treasury bonds.
Color me neutral now,
because the supply of cash to invest in high
yield bonds, stock IPOs, and private
equity is substantial.
International
equities are the least tax - efficient (
because they are not eligible for the dividend tax credit and they have a higher
yield than US
equities), so they should be the first candidate.
Because high -
yield bonds generally have a substantial correlation to
equities, it could be expected that the portfolio's beta would be approximately between 1 --(0.15 + 0.10 + 0.05) = 0.7 and 1 --(0.15 + 0.10) = 0.75, which it was at 0.73.
Over the (very) long run,
equities out - perform bonds and cash, as is evident below, but may not be practical alternative to bonds for many investors,
because of investment horizon, risk - tolerance, dependence on
yield, or all the above.
Returning to Mr. Hibbert, he would appear to share this view: «Given that the starting valuation for
equities is now very low, then if those companies can continue to increase their earnings profile I think you will see very strong returns
because you will get both capital growth and dividend
yield.»
We have high
yield dividend
equities — this is unique to Rebalance IRA — that we use a proxy for a bond fund
because interest rates are artificially manipulated by the government and kept artificially lower than they normally would have been if the market had set those rates by its own market forces.
Because dividends from U.S. and international
equities are fully taxable, you generally want to tax - shelter foreign stocks with high
yields.
In hindsight, not a good argument, not
because Treasury
yields fell, but
because junk credit spreads are more critical to private
equity than treasury and high - grade
yields.
Because they are compared some investors are led to believe that the
equity owners» expected return can be estimated as the sum of the earnings
yield plus earnings growth.
A Review of the Evidence, in which Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa argue that stocks are cheap
because the «Fed model» — the
equity risk premium measured as the difference between the forward operating earnings
yield on the S&P 500 and the 10 - year Treasury bond
yield — is at a historic high.
Also, like the Fortune column points out, the thesis that interest rates will inevitably rise, so bonds are a bad idea but stocks are now undervalued
because of wide premiums over bonds is seriously flawed
because if bond
yields rise, it will be bad for bonds but the
equity premium will drop as well, so it may not be necessarily good for stocks.
Putting aside the performance of bonds during the bear market beginning in 1980 (both
because the starting
yields on Treasuries were so high but also
because the bear market was relatively mild as the decline began from relatively low levels of valuation), what's interesting about the above chart is how dependably bonds protected a portfolio during
equity bear markets.
For them the negative
yield isn't a big issue
because the real value of the bond investment is not in generating
yield, but in reducing risk by allowing them to get out of
equities.
3) In any case, the idea that
equity markets are currently risk free
because the
yield curve is not inverted is not supported by history, most recently in 2011.
Because I still have plenty of other potential buys lined up, both cheap & interesting, and I suspect we have a QE / bond
yield - induced blow - off phase to come in the developed
equity markets.
When
yield spreads are very high, future
equity returns are high,
because returns come as spreads tighten.
Equities futures were pointing to a higher opening for U.S. stocks Tuesday morning as the 10 - year Treasury
yield paused close to a level that apparently has concerned some market participants
because of what it says about inflation expectations and the potential to dent corporate borrowing...
«That has really brought REITs back into the spotlight, largely
because of their strong underlying performance and operating fundamentals providing the type of
yield that a lot of investors are looking for right now,» says Edward Mui, a REIT
equity analyst at research firm Morningstar.