The apparent one - to - one relationship between Treasury yields and
equity yields during that span (which is the entire basis for the «Fed Model») is anything but a «fair value» relationship between stocks and bonds.
Not exact matches
In essence, investors who reinvest their dividends accumulate more shares
during stock market collapses as the dividend
yield expanding allows them to gobble up more
equity with each dividend check they shove back into their account or dividend reinvestment plan.
During times of recession the economy is stimulated with low interest rates and once they get low enough, the
yield on bonds and other fixed investments becomes so unattractive that money starts to flow into
equities.
During the late morning and into the afternoon,
equities continued to climb (S&P +30 to 2676), while the 10 - year
yield remained below 3 %.
Putting aside the performance of bonds
during the bear market beginning in 1980 (both because the starting
yields on Treasuries were so high but also because the bear market was relatively mild as the decline began from relatively low levels of valuation), what's interesting about the above chart is how dependably bonds protected a portfolio
during equity bear markets.
I've also marked on the graph the level that
yields would need to fall to in order to match the total return earned
during prior
equity bear - market periods.
The best framework for bonds protecting portfolio capital
during equity bear markets is: average to above - average starting bond
yields, with an average to above - average rate of inflation — which is set to decline in a recession - induced bear market.
However, for bonds to provide a similar level of return as they did
during the last
equity bear market described above,
yields would have to fall to approximately minus 2 %.
To the extent credit markets take the events in Washington in stride — even
during the worst selling last week high
yield spreads remained comfortably below 400 basis points (4 %)--
equity investors can breathe a little easier, at least until they can't.
Considering the low
yield bond investors are earning
during sunnier days for
equity - only investors, when the storm comes, that outcome would be particularly painful.
Putting aside the performance of bonds
during the bear market beginning in 1980 (both because the starting
yields on Treasuries were so high but also because the bear market was relatively mild as the decline began from relatively low levels of valuation), what's interesting about the above chart is how dependably bonds protected a portfolio
during equity bear markets.
The best framework for bonds protecting portfolio capital
during equity bear markets is: average to above - average starting bond
yields, with an average to above - average rate of inflation — which is set to decline in a recession - induced bear market.
I've also marked on the graph the level that
yields would need to fall to in order to match the total return earned
during prior
equity bear - market periods.
It does indeed seem that retiring at times with particularly low bond
yields, which can be expected to increase over time, may not favor rising
equity glidepaths
during retirement.