Not exact matches
«Our goal is to
give the examiner a way to
estimate the probability of this type of
error so the jury can take that into account when deciding guilt or innocence.»
The 16 planetary candidates have
estimated diameters within range of being super-Earths (1.26 to 2.0 times Earth's diameter),
given error margins ranging from 25 to 35 percent due to the uncertainty in the size of their host star and of the «depth» of the observed transits (decrease in stellar luminosity) across the surface of the star.
There is less possibility of
error with ambulatory readings, and they
give more accurate blood pressure
estimates and cardiovascular disease prognosis compared to conventional readings.
Perhaps the analysis should be weighted by the inverse of the standard
error of the test score for each country, to
give more weight to countries with more precise
estimates?
[16]
Given the margins of
error on the 2016 ACS 5 - year
estimates on kindergarten through grade 12 students enrolled in private schools, the percent of students enrolled in private school in D.C. is
estimated to range from 15.0 percent to 16.8 percent.
Fallible
estimates and standard
errors notwithstanding, the «best
estimate» of the true score (i.e., the true performance level for a
given school) is the average, and thus averages are used to report school performance.
-- Before radiotracking cats we placed radiocollars at known locations to determine accuracy of directional bearings in
estimating cat locations,
giving an
estimated bearing
error of 12 ° (White and Garrott 1990).
The total variance in the data
gives an upper limit to the
errors, and using that upper limit we can compute a statistically reliable
estimate of the significance of the trend.
I am especially interested in the mathematical details outlined in this sentence; «The total variance in the data
gives an upper limit to the
errors, and using that upper limit we can compute a statistically reliable
estimate of the significance of the trend.»
The «true»
error bars should be slightly larger
given the uncertainty in the annual
estimates themselves.
Many experts on China caution that most sources of data there should come with fat
error bars,
given past instances in which official
estimates of activities ranging from coal extraction to fish catches proved to be way off.
Observational
errors on any one annual mean temperature anomaly
estimate are around 0.1 deg C, and the
errors from the linear fits are
given in the text.
Similarly, attribution of climate change to anthropogenic causes involves statistical analysis and the assessment of multiple lines of evidence to demonstrate, within a pre-specified margin of
error, that the observed changes are (1) unlikely to be due entirely to natural internal climate variability; (2) consistent with
estimated or modelled responses to the
given combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing; and (3) not consistent with alternative, physically plausible explanations of recent climate change.
It is designed to
estimate the reliability of a final result,
given the impact of calculational and / or measurement
errors in the calculational terms.
In the case of the 1988 Hansen et al. model, there didn't appear to be any usable
estimate of the model's reliability — in other words, how likely is it, that
given the proper input, the model
gives results within a tolerable range of
error.
A result should never be reported without
giving reasonable
error estimates.»
While it is true that there are a host of different things that make up any
given individual
error estimate at any single point, that does not free us from the constraint imposed by the number of measurements.
And if you judge MRES by other criteria than variance or standard deviation, e.g. getting an interesting shape, then you are still within the realm of estimation theory (you're
estimating the parameters that
give you your interesting shape) but no longer in that of minimum mean squared
error.
For a Gaussian time series, the margin of
error on a trend of length N t
estimated by linear least - squares regression is a function of the magnitude of the interannual variability (
given by the standard deviation σ), the lag - one autocorrelation and the trend length (Thompson et al. 2015).
Unfortunately, not all articles within a
given field of science will contain statistical
estimates required for meta - analysis (e.g.,
estimate of effect size,
error, sample size).
Let us simplify the problem further and assume that the lab can
estimate the RC age on a sample (
given an assumed initial mass fraction) with negligible
error, and then consider how we generate the probability distribution for calendar date even when we have no laboratory measurement
error to take into account.
They
give an equation to determine the probability of a temperature rise of ΔT,
given an
estimated feedback factor f and the
error on its determination σ (f).
If you know the location, but have no measures at the location, the
estimate that minimizes the
error is
given by the field value at that location.
Nic writes «
Given Forster & Gregory's regression method and observational
error assumptions, the
error (and hence probability) distribution for the resulting slope coefficient
estimate can be derived from frequentist statistical theory, as used in science for many years.»
Given Forster & Gregory's regression method and observational
error assumptions, the
error (and hence probability) distribution for the resulting slope coefficient
estimate can be derived from frequentist statistical theory, as used in science for many years.
... The uncertainties
given by RSOA due to data gaps and random
errors (Figure 1a) were augmented using published
estimates of global uncertainties associated with urbanization effects (e.g. Jones et al., 1990),... We assume that the global average LAT uncertainty increased from zero in 1900 to 0.1 °C in 1990 (Jones et al, 1990), a value we extrapolate to 0.12 °C in 2000 (Figure 1a).
The grey bar
gives an
estimate of statistical
error, according to a standard formula for
error in the
estimate of the mean of a time series (in this case the observed time series of Δαs / ΔTs)
given the time series» length and variance.
The early scientific reviews suggest a couple of reasons: firstly, that modelling the climate as an AR (1) process with a single timescale is an over-simplification; secondly, that a similar analysis in a GCM with a known sensitivity would likely
give incorrect results, and finally, that his
estimate of the
error bars on his calculation are very optimistic.
Adding the relevant years» total uncertainty
estimates for the HadCRUT4 21 - year smoothed decadal data (
estimated 5 — 95 % ranges 0.17 °C and 0.126 °C), and very generously assuming the variance uncertainty scales inversely with the number of years averaged,
gives an
error standard deviation for the change in decadal temperature of 0.08 °C (all uncertainty
errors are assumed to be normally distributed, and independent except where otherwise stated).
The
estimate from satellite altimetry is also
given, with the 90 % confidence
given as an
error bar.
We can probably
estimate its magnitude with pretty narrow
error bars,
given that it is a straight chemical / physical process dependent in a simple way on substrate, temperature and so on.
Comment: Several commenters took issue with the «top - down» approach that we used to
estimate costs for small businesses, believing that this methodology provided only a single point
estimate,
gave no indication of the variation around the
estimate, and was subject to numerous methodological
errors since the entities to which the numerator pertained may not have been Start Printed Page 82757the same as the denominator.
CALCULATING
ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION - FINAL Empirical Bayes method 9
Given the relatively high standard
errors for net undercount by Indigenous status by state, the ABS used the Empirical Bayes estimation method to
estimate more reliable undercount inputs for use in deriving population
estimates.
Variation between the replicate
estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy corresponding to replicate
estimates from PES
gave estimates of the sample
error of life expectancy and the additional variation from deviations from the assumptions measured the sensitivity of the method to the assumptions.
The
estimates are subject to
errors that can not be comprehensively adjusted for within the population
estimates compilation process,
given the limited ability to
estimate Census undercount by Indigenous status and other demographic characteristics.
[26][27][29][30] They
give distribution - free expressions for direct and indirect effects and demonstrate that, despite the arbitrary nature of the
error distributions and the functions f, g, and h, mediated effects can nevertheless be
estimated from data using regression.