When you consider even the most extreme claim for the global warming effect of human CO2, it is within
the error of the estimate of almost every single variable.
It is inherent in the data set, being derived by an equation from the standard
error of estimate.
Professor Phil Jones at the University of East Anglia (yes, the Phil Jones), tells me: «
The error of estimate of global averages or the forecasts for subsequent years is completely unrelated to the trend of warming.
Regardless, notice the amount is less than
the error of the estimate of two of the natural emissions, «Oceans» and «Ground» and close to a third, «humans and animals».
In other words
the error of the estimate of incoming insolation is five times greater than the effect of CO2.
The standard
error of this estimate is just 0.13 percentile points.
This is a very precisely - estimated zero: the standard
error of this estimate is just 0.14 percentage points.
The standard
error of this estimate is 0.114.
In four of the countries, Australia, Hong Kong, Scotland, and the United States, the standard
error of the estimated effects of class size was extremely large, indicating that little confidence should be placed in the results.
This is greater than the two - point gain we found in Iceland and Greece, but it is within the standard
error of these estimates, suggesting that the actual effect of reducing class size in Iceland and Greece could be as large as Krueger found in the United States.
In general, we can conclude that we find evidence that investor experience lessens the simple mathematical
error of estimating portfolio returns, but seems not to influence their behavioral mistakes pertaining to how good (in absolute sense or relative to other investors) they are.
JAXA boasts that, «we can reduce
the error of the estimated values when we introduce IBUKI's observation data compared to that of the values calculated in a conventional way based on ground observation data.»
By the way, although I have not read the paper, «variance corrected means» probably refers to some technique to obtain more accurate estimates of the means, the averages in the series, using information on the variance of
the error of estimating these averages which would have varied from year to year.
BEST has released gridded data, and I'm more interested in it at the moment On that subject, is there any uncertainty information, such as mean standard
error of the estimates associated with the grid points?
Not exact matches
This timeliness and detail comes at a cost, however, as the small sample sizes
of the LFS causes the
estimates to have substantial standard
errors (which can lead to some peculiar results at the provincial and CMA levels).
«If you really want to be 100 % confident in your
estimate, you're either going to have to ask every American or be satisfied with a huge margin
of error,» Bray, the Reed College statistics professor, says.
Further, there's a good chance the hot hand is more substantial than we
estimate due to another subtle statistical issue called «measurement
error,» which we discuss in the appendix
of our paper.
While the American Medical Association
estimated that 7.1 percent
of paid claims in 2013 contained an
error, a 2014 NerdWallet study found mistakes in 49 percent
of Medicare claims.
The IIF, incorporating recently released partial State Administration
of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) data for the fourth quarter, said it now
estimates that China's 2015 net capital outflows totaled $ 463 billion, or $ 637 billion including
errors and omissions.
«What this all suggests is that the level
of precision at which a speaker chooses to convey a quantitative
estimate — as «seven days» versus «one week» — signals to message recipients the magnitude
of error around the
estimate they should expect,» says Mason.
This online survey is not based on a probability sample, and therefore no
estimate of theoretical sampling
error can be calculated.
With the increasing reliance on tax data for business surveys, I fear for the quality
of GDP
estimates — and just look at what the Conference Board's
error on the China LEI did to the markets this week.
After analysts fixed a computer programming
error that had inflated the total, the CDC reduced its
estimate of cases
of «severe maternal morbidity» this year from 65,000 to more than 50,000.
«There's no reason to doubt the governor's
estimate of end - October, and there's no room for
error in the necessary federal response.»
The
errors in
estimating the costs
of the war, the incompetent planning for the occupation, and the failure to understand the sheer length
of the commitment are at least as important in understanding questions
of when, if, and how, the U.S. should get into wars.
You're
estimate of world christian believers is also in
error as well, but I get you're point.
The margin
of error to be allowed for in any
estimate depends mainly on the number
of interviews on which it is based.
Calculation to determine the necessary number
of resident participants used estimations
of knowledge from previous studies
of pediatric residents, which suggested a baseline knowledge about breastfeeding
of 60 percentage points.8, 9,15 To detect an improvement in knowledge score
of 20 percentage points with an
estimated standard deviation
of 20 points, a 2 - tailed α
error of 0.05 and a power
of 0.80, sample size was calculated at a minimum
of 16 resident participants.
Ignoring the stratified sampling does not affect point
estimates and may have resulted in slightly overestimated standard
errors.14 Robust variance estimation was used to allow for the clustered nature
of the data within units and trusts.
We therefore performed each simulation 2,000 times, drawing key parameters at random from triangular distributions covering the range
of estimates available in the literature associating breastfeeding with maternal health outcomes, centered on the point
estimate provided in the literature and a distribution width
of four standard
errors.
Self - reported weight and height contribute to measurement
error in the calculation
of prepregnancy BMI and misclassification into BMI categories, which affect
estimates of GWG and PPWR (65).
The authors conducted a systematic review
of published studies from which
estimates of a mean difference (standard
error) in blood pressure between breastfed and bottle - fed subjects could be derived.
Mr. Cuomo began the year by unveiling a pledge to cover the cost
of tuition at state colleges for families making up to $ 125,000 a year, a plan that his administration
estimated would cost $ 163 million a year by 2019 — a mere «rounding
error» in the education budget, the governor said on Tuesday, but that experts have warned could ultimately cost far more.
It is possible to produce
estimates for the effect
of different uniform swings as UK Polling did here, but there are,
of course, subject to greater
error and many more caveats.
«Even if we take the extreme
of these
error estimates, we are left with a significant trend since 1890 and a significant trend in major hurricanes starting anytime before 1920,» say atmospheric scientists Greg Holland
of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., and Peter Webster
of the Georgia Institute
of Technology in Atlanta.
But even physicians provided incorrect diagnoses about 15 percent
of the time, which is comparable with past
estimates of physician diagnostic
error.
Point
estimates of population parameters (e.g., mean, correlation coefficient, slope) or comparative measures (e.g., mean difference, odds ratio, hazard ratio) should be accompanied by a measure
of uncertainty such as a standard
error or a confidence interval.
Padgett notes, «Previous investigations were able to provide
estimates of subsidence with large
errors, which are only so helpful to the modelers.»
Uncorrected refractive
error was the leading cause
of moderate to severe visual impairment, affecting an
estimated 101.2 million people.
The resulting dark energy value, 74 per cent
of the universe's energy, had a potential
error one - third the size
of previous
estimates (Nature, DOI: 10.1038 / nature09577).
Intel responded by saying that analysis
of a variety
of spreadsheet users at its own offices backed up its
estimate of 1000 divisions per day, and that four - figure numbers are not statistically any more likely than others to lead to
errors.
The new measurement fits with previous
estimates when their margin
of error is considered, he says.
«Although both water balance - based and GRACE - based groundwater volume
estimates are subject to
errors, the relatively small area
of the Central Valley in the eyes
of GRACE might also be responsible for that recovery discrepancy,» Lee said.
There, however, activity did not correspond as closely with the magnitude
of error in the participants» initial risk
estimates, matching the poorer correction later.
«Our goal is to give the examiner a way to
estimate the probability
of this type
of error so the jury can take that into account when deciding guilt or innocence.»
Scientists believe that aerosols exert an influence on climate roughly equal to that
of greenhouse gases, but the current
estimate of aerosols» climate effect carries a large margin
of error.
A new paper, co-authored by Woods Hole Research Center Senior Scientist Richard A. Houghton, entitled, «Audit
of the global carbon budget:
estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty,» was published in the journal Biogeosciences.
At the end
of his famous report, Henry Cavendish said
of another
estimate of G, which deviated from his by 22 percent, well outside his
estimated statistical
error of plus or minus 7 percent: «[It] differs rather more from the preceding determination than I should have expected.
«Obviously, that's a low
estimate because not everybody has gotten back to me, and there may well be a lot
of errors that I haven't picked up.»
Normally, radiocarbon dates have
error ranges
of several centuries, but the researchers could improve the
estimates because the smallest sharks measured showed the «bomb pulse» — a huge increase in global radiocarbon released from the hundreds
of nuclear weapons tested in the 1950s and»60s.