Even extending to pre-Argo periods, with a long period
the errors in ocean heat content values have to be very large to have a major effect on the mean rate of heat uptake over the period.
Not exact matches
There is still some discrepancy remaining, which could be due to
errors in the satellite measurements, the
ocean heat content measurements, or both.
And since we don't have good
ocean heat content data, nor any satellite observations, or any measurements of stratospheric temperatures to help distinguish potential
errors in the forcing from internal variability, it is inevitable that there will be more uncertainty
in the attribution for that period than for more recently.
So given a forcing (
in this case 0.85 W / m2 (= 1.6 W / m2 minus 0.75 W / m2 for the
ocean heat content change), and a temperature change 0.7 °C, the sensitivity is 0.7 / 0.85 = ~ 0.8 °C / (W / m2)(leaving off the
error bars for clarity)- gavin]
It is certainly true that a very small temperature bias that is not random from instrument to instrument, but instead is the same over a large number of profiles can create systematic
error in global estimates of
ocean heat content.
The
error bars on the CERES retrievals, particularly when all 4 sensors are available are significantly less than the (reported)
error bars on the
ocean heat content data
in the Lyman et al work.
However, it's easy to assess the
error in the global mean
ocean heat content based on the measurement
error and spatial variability, and that is done
in the Willis et al paper.
The
error is small enough to have confidence that the
ocean heat content has been increasing
in the past 15 years, during the so called «hiatus»
in global warming.
Moreover, the scientists called for continued support of current and future technologies for
ocean monitoring to minimize observation
errors in sea surface temperature and
ocean heat content.
Domingues et al (2008) and Levitus et al (2009) have recently estimated the multi-decadal upper
ocean heat content using best - known corrections to systematic
errors in the fall rate of expendable bathythermographs (Wijffels et al, 2008).
Assuming for the sake of argument that «the pause» is not an instrument
error and the troposphere hasn't gotten any warmer
in 16 years then this raises the question of how
ocean heat content could be rising which, according to ARGO, at least the upper half of the
ocean is accumulating thermal energy.
«Our results demonstrate how synergistic use of satellite TOA radiation observations and recently improved
ocean heat content measurements, with appropriate
error estimates, provide critical data for quantifying short - term and longer - term changes
in the Earth's net TOA radiation imbalance.
What are the
error bars
in calculating the
heat content of an entire
ocean from the sparse, unreliable (pre-ARGO) temperature data available?
Figure 3.2: b) Observation - based estimates of annual five - year running mean global mean mid-depth (700 — 2000 m)
ocean heat content in ZJ (Levitus et al., 2012) and the deep (2000 — 6000 m) global
ocean heat content trend from 1992 — 2005 (Purkey and Johnson, 2010), both with one standard
error uncertainties shaded (see legend).
Looking at the last decade, it is clear that the observed rate of change of upper
ocean heat content is a little slower than previously (and below linear extrapolations of the pre-2003 model output), and it remains unclear to what extent that is related to a reduction
in net radiative forcing growth (due to the solar cycle, or perhaps larger than expected aerosol forcing growth), or internal variability, model
errors, or data processing — arguments have been made for all four, singly and together.