Not exact matches
For example, if your child doesn't press a universal digital
thermometer to his body tightly, the result
in the armpit can be with a rather large
error — up to half a degree.
Correcting this
error did not bring the early
thermometers completely
in line with proxies — up to 0.9 F of additional warm bias might still persist from other sources, such as differences
in the
thermometers or
in how people read them — «but I think we are nearer to the truth,» said Böhm
in 2012.
When they corrected the
error, Wentz and Schabel derived a warming trend of about 0.07 °C per decade, more
in line with surface
thermometers and climate models.
They committed serial
errors in the data analysis, but insisted they were right and models and
thermometers were wrong.
The Sherwood et al. study
in Science Express concerns one particular type of long - recognized radiosonde
error, that caused by the sun shining on the «thermistor» (basically, a cheap
thermometer easily read by an electric circuit).
Now, add all those up, with all the uncertainties involved
in trying to get a geographic average when, for example, large swaths of the earth are not covered by an official
thermometer, and what is the
error on the total?
Rev, «Or — perhaps,
in your blog - research, you only use magic «perfect»
thermometers that read correctly to 137 decimal places with no margin of
error?
As regards
thermometers, the diameter of the mercury column with only a + / - 2.5 % deviation
in diameter will yield a 10 %
error over the number of increments counted.
As an extension, systematic observational
errors could perhaps be corrected as part of the regression by estimating a constant shift to apply to each
thermometer (treating changes
in technology as creating a new
thermometer on the same site), though this may make the problem too large.
Nevertheless, this compilation contains the only known official climate records for the Western Australia colony before 1900 and although recording discrepancies may have been common, these mistakes might either inflate or deflate the real temperatures (e.g.
thermometers near warm buildings or
in cool locations, although a common
error was heat radiation from the ground).
Stick a
thermometer in for temperatures, use the old unadjusted data and make the models available so programing
errors can be removed.
The measurement uncertainties account for correlations between
errors in observations made by the same ship or buoy due, for example, to miscalibration of the
thermometer.
In the CRU approach the errors are estimated or built up in a bottom up fashion, so there is an estimate for thermometer error, for recording error, etc
In the CRU approach the
errors are estimated or built up
in a bottom up fashion, so there is an estimate for thermometer error, for recording error, etc
in a bottom up fashion, so there is an estimate for
thermometer error, for recording
error, etc..
They have said above (
in their replies, but not
in the paper itself) that that particular AGW signal is bounded by a maximum of.66 C per century, and that the AGW signal may come from (1) a recent CO2 increase — which you are apparently assuming is the sole source), (2) measurement
error / bias (UHI and bad
thermometer sites) and (3) other causes.
See, the first thing to do is do determine what the temperature trend during the recent
thermometer period (1850 — 2011) actually is, and what patterns or trends represent «data»
in those trends (what the earth's temperature / climate really was during this period), and what represents random «noise» (day - to - day, year - to - random changes
in the «weather» that do NOT represent «climate change»), and what represents experimental
error in the plots (UHI increases
in the temperatures,
thermometer loss and loss of USSR data, «metadata» «M» (minus) records getting skipped that inflate winter temperatures, differences
in sea records from different measuring techniques, sea records vice land records, extrapolated land records over hundreds of km, surface temperature
errors from lousy stations and lousy maintenance of surface records and stations, false and malicious time - of - observation bias changes
in the information.)
Errors from all sources — miscalibration of
thermometers, reading temperatures inconsistently, poor placement of
thermometers, and so on would
in general be assumed to be as likely to be too warm as too cold.
If this is the best such land area surface temperature assessment system on the planet (covering, as well, a broad range of metropolitan, suburban, and rural areas), and the quality of the system is now proven to be demonstrably more prone to
error than had been previously assumed — with the preponderance of
error shown to produce the impression of warming
in excess of real conditions prevailing — what may be reliably inferred about surface temperature monitoring systems data from even less reliable
thermometers all over the rest of the world?
Parts of the data may have some elements of the
errors that are Gaussian — the example of measurement
error in terms of scale may be Gaussian — after get through the problems of variances
in the
thermometers themselves, which is also a well - known problem for mercury
thermometers vis a vis their manufacturing — but their measured variance from the true temperature is not demonstrably Gaussian, and gets worse the further back you go.
a Uncertainties (2 sigma) du to: data gaps and random
errors estimated by RSOA (heavy solid); SST bias - corrections (heavy dashes); urbanisation (light dashes); changes
in thermometer exposures on LAT (light solid).
By fixating on a minor detail, you have glossed right over all the real difficulties and challenges
in working out the probable
error range for early temperature records, which include uncertainty about the properties of the
thermometers used and gaps
in the records.