First they said the Mars and Venus measurements weren't measured, just computed; then they said we couldn't measure temperatures on other planets; then they said we'd need billions of measurements to
estimate average surface temperature.
Not exact matches
Global
surface temperatures in 2016
averaged 14.8 degrees Celsius (58.64 °F), or 1.3 C (2.3 F) higher than
estimated before the Industrial Revolution ushered in wide use of fossil fuels, the EU body said.
Using methods that allow them to
estimate the
average stellar illumination and
temperatures on their
surfaces, scientists have already identified dozens of locations where life could potentially exist.
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean
surfaces, from three different
estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty
estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas... The best
estimate of the human - induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period....
We have
estimated that air
temperature near the
surface, globally
averaged, was 3 - 4 degrees C. (5 - 7 degrees F.) cooler than today.
If you take the new 2004 annual data on
surface temperature and include it in an
average for 30 years, you have the most recent
estimate of current climate, which is centered on 1989.
Present
estimates are that limiting the increase in global
average surface temperature to no more than 2 — 2.5 °C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 °C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change.
So after considering all of that, the
estimated current «
surface»
temperature produces an
estimated effective radiant return energy from the atmosphere of about 345Wm - 3 + / - 9 called DWLR which, had the
average effective radiant energy of the oceans been used, ~ 334Wm - 2 would have created less confusion and still have been within a more realistic uncertainty range of + / - 17 Wm - 2.
It compiles a diverse set of sea
surface (not deep water)
temperature proxies to
estimate a spatially - weighted global
average temperature anomaly.
The following graph shows annual
average temperature estimates from Berkeley Earth and 5 other research groups that
estimate surface temperature.
For this reason, a number of researchers have suggested that it should be possible to
estimate the long term Sea
Surface Temperature trends for a given area by
averaging together all the available measurements from different voyages that went through that area in a given month.
A paper in this week's Nature by Caroline Snyder at Stanford provides a fresh attempt at
estimating global
average surface temperatures across the Pleistocene (her
estimates cover the last 2 million years).
When he presented his misleading graph, when he said 97 % of climate scientists agree, (knowing full well the actual situation that the number is bogus and misleading,) when he mentions adjustments to satellite data but not to
surface temperatures with major past cooling and absurd derived precision to.005 * C, when he defends precision in
surface global
averages but ignores major
estimates of temps and krigging in Arctic, Africa, Asia and oceans or Antarctica, he forfeits credibility.
Wyatt & Curry say «DM [Dickey and Marcus] removed the
estimated anthropogenic footprint from the
surface average temperature...».
Further climate change is expected to intensify these effects on North Sea plankton, cod, and marine ecosystems.7 By 2100, scientists
estimate that
average world sea
surface temperatures could rise as much as 5.4 ° F (3 ° C) if our heat - trapping emissions continue unabated.13, 14
I specifically would like to know how you judged what the «
estimated anthropogenic footprint» in
surface average temperature was.
DM removed the
estimated anthropogenic footprint from the
surface average temperature to generate a «corrected»
temperature, one assumed to reflect only natural variability.
``... the UN IPCC...
estimates that the
average global
surface temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 °C by 2100.»
However, I hope is is not to the area
averaged surface statistical models, in which case don't bother, as I consider these models to have become obsolete as
temperature estimates when the first satellites were launched around 1978.
Changes in instrumentation and data availability have caused time - varying biases in
estimates of global - and regional -
average sea -
surface temperature.
There are a number of papers by Samuel S. Shen looking at the design of observing networks for
estimating spherical harmonics with idealised
surface temperature distributions, but I'm not aware of the technique having been used to reconstruct global
average temperature using the real distribution of stations and data.
Uncertainties of
estimated trends in global - and regional -
average sea -
surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea -
surface temperatures.
Second — and I have a feeling you didn't know this — NH extratropical land
surface temperatures are the main determinant of global
average temperature estimates.
It says the
average land and ocean -
surface temperature for 2001 - 2010 was
estimated to be 14.47 °C, or 0.47 °C above the 1961 - 1990 global
average and +0.21 °C above the 1991 - 2000 global
average (with a factor of uncertainty of ± 0.1 °C).
Absolute
estimates of global
average surface temperature are difficult to compile for several reasons.
One study
estimates that there are likely to be places on Earth where unprotected humans without cooling mechanisms, such as air conditioning, would die in less than six hours if global
average surface temperature rises by about 12.6 ° F (7 ° C).16 With warming of 19.8 - 21.6 ° F (11 - 12 ° C), this same study projects that regions where approximately half of the world's people now live could become intolerable.7
Rohde, R. et al: «A new
estimate of the
average earth
surface land
temperature spanning 1753 to 2011», Manuscript: text presented at the 3rd Santa Fe conference on global and regional climate
temperature change, 2011
The Earth's
average surface temperature is
estimated to have warmed 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit (0.7 degrees Celsius) since humans accelerated greenhouse gas emissions around the time of the Industrial Revolution.
The WMO's preliminary
estimate, based on data from January to October, shows that the global
average surface temperature for 2015 so far is around 0.73 °C above the 1961 - 1990
average of 14 °C, and approximately 1 °C above the pre-industrial 1880 - 1899 period.
We can compare that to what results from subtracting the
average of
surface temperature estimates from the
average of satellite measurements:
For the time period from 1979 to 1998, it is
estimated that on
average, over the globe,
surface temperature has increased by 0.25 to 0.4 °C and lower to mid-tropospheric
temperature has increased by 0.0 to 0.2 °C.9 break
Sensitivity equals dT / dF is only valid for an absolute
temperature and absolute forcing over a small range of change and since the current «state of the artistry» «
surface temperature average» requires using anomaly from very cold locations with very little energy per degree of anomaly, what «
surface» is
averaged impacts the
estimate of «sensitivity».
This point was also made by Schmidt et al. (2014), which additionally showed that incorporating the most recent
estimates of aerosol, solar, and greenhouse gas forcings, as well as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and
temperature measurement biases, the discrepancy between
average GCM global
surface warming projections and observations is significantly reduced.
The two alternative time periods for this are pertinent, but equally pertinent is the more accurate «earth's
average surface temperature is
estimated to have risen...».
There have been a number of
estimates of the
average global
surface temperature change during the LGM.
A reasonable rule - of - thumb to
estimate crawlspace ground
surface temperatures is to use the
average annual ambient air
temperature for that location.
Although the
temperatures for November and December are not in yet, the WMO says the combined sea
surface and land
surface air
temperature for 2009 is currently
estimated at 0.44 degrees C above the 1961 - 1999
average of 14.00 degrees.
The map below presents the
estimated change in
average surface air
temperature for 2014 relative to the thirty - year
average from 1981 to 2010.
The bar graph below shows two
estimates of yearly
average surface temperature change both derived from ERA - Interim.
Provisional
estimates of
average global
temperatures based on monthly climatological land - station and sea -
surface temperature records have suggested it could be the warmest year on record.
In terms of the
average surface temperature of Earth, these indirect
estimates show that 1983 to 2012 was probably the warmest 30 - year period in more than 800 years.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its provisional Statement on the State of the Climate this week,
estimating that 2017 is likely to be one of the warmest years for global
average surface temperature, with many high - impact events including catastrophic hurricanes, floods, heatwaves and droughts.
The initial
estimate by the WMO shows that the
average surface temperature in the world for 2015 was 0.73 degrees Celsius (1.31 degrees Fahrenheit) above the
average recorded between 1961 and 1990.
Estimated long - term variations in
average global
temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's
surface are graphed along with
average troposphere CO2 levels over the past 160,000 years.
11
Temperature change over past 1,000 years Temperature change (C °) Figure 20.2 Science: estimated changes in the average global temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface over different perio
Temperature change over past 1,000 years
Temperature change (C °) Figure 20.2 Science: estimated changes in the average global temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface over different perio
Temperature change (C °) Figure 20.2 Science:
estimated changes in the
average global
temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface over different perio
temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's
surface over different periods of time.
`... over the 100 years since 1870 the successive five year values of
average temperatures in England have been highly significantly correlated with the best
estimates of the
averages for the whole Northern Hemisphere and for the whole earth» (In this last comment he is no doubt referring to his work at CRU where global
surface records back to 1860 or so were eventually gathered) he continued; «they probably mean that over the last three centuries the CET
temperatures provide a reasonable indication of the tendency of the global climatic regime.»
10
Temperature change over past 22,000 years Agriculture established Temperature change (C °) End of last ice age Average temperature over past 10,000 years = 15 °C (59 °F) Figure 20.2 Science: estimated changes in the average global temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface over different perio
Temperature change over past 22,000 years Agriculture established
Temperature change (C °) End of last ice age Average temperature over past 10,000 years = 15 °C (59 °F) Figure 20.2 Science: estimated changes in the average global temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface over different perio
Temperature change (C °) End of last ice age
Average temperature over past 10,000 years = 15 °C (59 °F) Figure 20.2 Science: estimated changes in the average global temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface over different periods o
Average temperature over past 10,000 years = 15 °C (59 °F) Figure 20.2 Science: estimated changes in the average global temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface over different perio
temperature over past 10,000 years = 15 °C (59 °F) Figure 20.2 Science:
estimated changes in the
average global temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface over different periods o
average global
temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface over different perio
temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's
surface over different periods of time.
(See NCDC Global
Surface Temperature Anomalies) The same file states «The global monthly surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that month.
Surface Temperature Anomalies) The same file states «The global monthly surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that mo
Temperature Anomalies) The same file states «The global monthly
surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that month.
surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that mo
temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period
average) to obtain an absolute
estimate of
surface temperature for that month.
surface temperature for that mo
temperature for that month.»
Those suggest that the concentration of CO2 last approached 400 ppm about 3 to 5 million years ago, a period when global
average surface temperature is
estimated to have been about 2 to 3.5 °C higher than in the pre-industrial period.