University of Tokyo researchers have developed a real - time statistical method to
estimate death risk (i.e., the probability of death given infection) and identify risk factors of death during an infectious disease outbreak.
In order to put in place appropriate public health interventions in an ongoing disease outbreak, it is vital to
estimate death risk accurately in real time and identify risk factors such as age, gender, occupation and health conditions.
Not exact matches
Those drugs in combination reduce patients «
risk of
death or their cancer progressing by 42 percent versus chemotherapy, still beating Wall Street «s
estimates.
The best
estimate that we can make based on CDC data is a neonatal
death rate of 0.4 / 1000 in low
risk, white women at term.
The increase in
risk remained high even when overlying
deaths were discounted (32 times higher) or the
estimate of rates of bedsharing among living infants doubled (20 times higher).
Aside from sleep position, smoke exposure is the largest contributing
risk factor for SIDS.149 It is
estimated that one - third of SIDS
deaths could be prevented if all maternal smoking during pregnancy were eliminated.214, 215 The AAP supports the elimination of all tobacco smoke exposure, both prenatally and environmentally.216, 217
Estimates of the extra annual
risk of
death vary.
This makes it difficult to
estimate how BMI actually influences
risk of
death (the causal effect), as opposed to the observed association between BMI and
risk of
death.
Further follow - up of the participants will provide more accurate
risk estimates of mortality from specific causes of
death after nutritional disturbances during gestation and very early life.
Existing
estimates have been hampered by gaps in air pollution data, particularly in the developing world, and a lack of knowledge about how specific air pollution sources contribute to the
risk of disease and
death.
For instance,
estimates of «willingness to pay» to avoid
risks of
death assumed that incomes in poor countries will remain low.
Increasing the proportion of people linked to care engagement protocols within three months of a new HIV diagnosis to 90 percent, coupled with targeted yearly screening of high -
risk individuals, would avert an
estimated 292,000 HIV infections and 107,000 AIDS - related
deaths, at an incremental cost of $ 52.9 billion, or $ 65,700 per QALY gained.
The
estimated overall
death risk was approximately 20 % and was unaffected by gender.
While there have been attempts to
estimate real - time
death risks during epidemics, such statistical models require data from large numbers of patients in the order of thousands and therefore could not be applied to the 2015 MERS epidemic in the Republic of Korea with small patient numbers.
Influenza remains a major health problem in the United States, resulting each year in an
estimated 36,000
deaths and 200,000 hospitalizations.4 Those who have been shown to be at high
risk for the complications of influenza infection are children 6 to 23 months of age; healthy persons 65 years of age or older; adults and children with chronic diseases, including asthma, heart and lung disease, and diabetes; residents of nursing homes and other long - term care facilities; and pregnant women.4 It is for this reason that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recommended that these groups, together with health care workers and others with direct patient - care responsibilities, should be given priority for influenza vaccination this season in the face of the current shortage.1 Other high - priority groups include children and teenagers 6 months to 18 years of age whose underlying medical condition requires the daily use of aspirin and household members and out - of - home caregivers of infants less than 6 months old.1 Hence, in the case of vaccine shortages resulting either from the unanticipated loss of expected supplies or from the emergence of greater - than - expected global influenza activity — such as pandemic influenza, which would prompt a greater demand for vaccination5 — the capability of extending existing vaccine supplies by using alternative routes of vaccination that would require smaller doses could have important public health implications.
Liver donation carries approximately a 5 percent
risk of surgical complications and an
estimated one - half to 1 percent
risk of
death.
One possible explanation for any improvements seen in the survival of patients who stop smoking might be a reduction in mortality from cardiorespiratory causes, as the
risk of
death from these diseases reduces after cessation.9 18 Consequently, we
estimated the expected contribution of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases by using life tables as above to find the number of cardiorespiratory
deaths prevented by smoking cessation in the general population.
We applied the average
risk of
death for continued smoking
estimated from studies included in this review that reported survival curves to
estimate the number of patients surviving after five years.16 17 We
estimated five year survival in quitters at diagnosis by applying the
death rate of continuing smokers multiplied by the reciprocal of the multivariate hazard ratio for all cause mortality presented in this review.
Although unadjusted
estimates suggest that the associated increase in
risk of continuing (or the benefit of cessation) is modest at around 20 %, the adjusted
estimates suggest a more than doubling of the
risk of
death from continued smoking.
Assuming that the findings of the review reflected a causal relation between smoking cessation and
risk of all cause mortality, we further investigated the data by constructing life tables for a hypothetical group of 100 patients aged 65 years with early stage lung cancer to
estimate how many
deaths would be prevented by smoking cessation within the non-small cell lung cancer and small cell lung cancer populations during five years.
We
estimated the
risk of
death due to cardiorespiratory causes in the general population of 65 - 69 year olds from data from the Office for National Statistics.19 We assumed that this
death rate was approximately that of the non-smoking population, because around 12 % of this age group smoke.20 We multiplied this rate by the relative
risk of
death from cardiorespiratory causes in lifelong smokers to
estimate the number of
deaths that would be expected over five years from cardiorespiratory causes in the general population of 65 year olds who smoke.
Currently, the BODE index is used by chest physicians to
estimate a patient's
risk of
death from COPD.
If the
risk of
death related to weekend births was the same as for babies born on weekdays, there would be 770 fewer newborn
deaths across England every year, the study authors
estimated.
«However, it is equally clear that sudden, unexplained
death is a rare event, this is only the first such study, it relies on small numbers, and it is not possible to quantify the
risk beyond
estimating that it is very small.»
The researchers also included accurate
estimates of the increased
risk of
death of overweight and obese individuals in comparison to individuals with a BMI of 20.0 to 24.9.
In addition,
risk estimates for
death from cancer were adjusted for history of cancer (other than nonmelanoma skin cancer) in a first - degree relative (yes vs. no).
But, diabetes studies
estimate that even this 1 % reduction of that marker can lower the
risk of diabetes - related
death by a whopping 21 %.
After analyzing the relative timing of each heart attack and bereavement, the researchers
estimated that the
risk of having an attack is 21 times higher in the 24 hours following a
death than it is one to six months later.
Studies
estimate that a 1 % reduction in this marker can lower the
risk of diabetes - related
death by 21 % (34).
Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of
death worldwide, with the
death rate
estimated at 17.5 million in 2004 (29 % of all
deaths).1 The metabolic syndrome describes a cluster of
risk factors that significantly increase the
risk of developing cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 2 and the syndrome is becoming increasingly prevalent owing to rising rates of obesity and diabetes and an aging population.
The federal government
estimates that adult safety belts reduce the
risk of
death in a crash among 1 - 4 year - olds by 36 percent.
Reducing ship exhaust will eliminate an
estimated 3,600 premature
deaths between 2009 and 2015 and lower the cancer
risk by over 80 percent.
You'll see these types of questions on the life insurance application to better assess your
risk of
death, making sure we give you the most accurate
estimate possible.
Because insurance companies must guarantee
death benefits and a minimum schedule of cash values in most policies (except variable life policies), they must be conservative when
estimating the values of the various premium pricing factors (interest, mortality, expenses, lapse rates, and
risk loading factors) used to compute the required premiums under any particular premium payment plan of insurance.
Physical inactivity is a grossly under - rated
risk factor of heart disease that is
estimated to cause 14,000
deaths a year.»