Enough for a good
estimate of global temperature go back to 1850, which by my calculation is 167 years ago.
Not exact matches
While land surface observations
go back hundreds
of years in a few places, data
of sufficient coverage for
estimating global temperature have been available only since the end
of the 19th century.
Regarding Judith Curry, there is broad general agreement that the results released today give a new and improved
estimate of the
global land
temperature going back 250 years.
I had attempted a similar project at the 3rd conference with my poster «Comparison
of Climate Forecasts: Expert Opinions vs. Prediction Markets» in which my abstract proposed the following: «As an experiment, we will ask participants to
go on the record with
estimates of probability that the
global temperature anomaly for calendar year 2012 will be equal to or greater than x, where x ranges in increments
of 0.05 °C from 0.30 to 1.10 °C (relative to the 1951 - 1980 base period, and published by NASA GISS).»
They
go back 220 million years when
estimated global temperatures were much higher, yet millions
of years
of these
temperatures did not extinguish the coral.
This is not good news for
global warmers because the mid to high end
estimates of 2100
temperature are off the table, and the missing 2.25 W / m2
of GHG forcing
went back into space.
, according to NASA scientists: «Coincidence, conspired to dampen warming trends» — Excuse number 10 for
global warming «pause» or «standstill» — NASA's Gavin Schmidt & colleagues finds «that a combination
of factors, by coincidence, conspired to dampen warming trends in the real world after about 1992» — Latest excuse for
global temperature standstill mocked by skeptics: «Apparently, if you
go back and rework all the forcings, taking into account new data
estimates (add half a bottle
of post-hoc figures) and «reanalyses»
of old data (add a tablespoon
of computer simulation) you can bridge the gap and explain away the pause.»
Lots
of other factors
go into
global temperature, but this ball park, back
of the envelope calculation shows that even IPCC's lowered top
estimate of 4.5 degrees is laughably preposterous.
The exact speed with which these are
going to contribute to sea level rise is highly uncertain, the synthesis report says, but the best scientific
estimate — based on observed correlation between
global average
temperatures and sea level rise over the past 120 years — shows that by 2100 we will experience sea level rise
of one meter or more.
Refuting the claim that CRU had somehow rigged its
global temperature estimates or deleted critical data, the committee
went through the rather extraordinary measure
of reproducing the
global temperature record from scratch, using publically archived data and methods.
He did do the first quantitative outlook
of the effects
of CO2 changes on
global temperature (
of which he got very lucky in being close to modern
estimates), but his target was largely to examine the coming and
going of ice ages.