Sentences with phrase «estimate regional temperature change»

Not exact matches

Based on regional studies, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that 20 — 30 % of the world's species are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction from climate change impacts within this century if global mean temperatures exceed 2 — 3 °C above pre-industrial levels [6], while Thomas et al. [5] predicted that 15 — 37 % of species could be «committed to extinction» due to climate change byChange (IPCC) estimated that 20 — 30 % of the world's species are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction from climate change impacts within this century if global mean temperatures exceed 2 — 3 °C above pre-industrial levels [6], while Thomas et al. [5] predicted that 15 — 37 % of species could be «committed to extinction» due to climate change bychange impacts within this century if global mean temperatures exceed 2 — 3 °C above pre-industrial levels [6], while Thomas et al. [5] predicted that 15 — 37 % of species could be «committed to extinction» due to climate change bychange by 2050.

Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones, 2012: Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset.

Changes in instrumentation and data availability have caused time - varying biases in estimates of global - and regional - average sea - surface temperature.

Rohde, R. et al: «A new estimate of the average earth surface land temperature spanning 1753 to 2011», Manuscript: text presented at the 3rd Santa Fe conference on global and regional climate temperature change, 2011

Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones (2012), Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset, J. Geophys.

This 2005 paper is headed «Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes - a new dataset from 1850.»

http://www.agci.org/docs/lean.pdf «Global (and regional) surface temperature fluctuations in the past 120 years reflect, as in the space era, a combination of solar, volcanic, ENSO, and anthropogenic influences, with relative contributions shown in Figure 6.22 The adopted solar brightness changes in this scenario are based on a solar surface flux transport model; although long - term changes are «50 % larger than the 11 - year irradiance cycle, they are significantly smaller than the original estimates based on variations in Sun - like stars and geomagnetic activity.

Mi Cro August 30, 2014 at 2:53 pm Clive, that's all fine and dandy, except those warming trends did not take place globally, they were regional trends.............................. We are finalising an analysis for Australia that shows of the claimed 1 deg C or so of warming since 1900, the maximum temperature change based on unadjusted data is half that or less, so 0.45 degrees for the century in the USA would fall neatly in the range we estimate for Australia.

Lower case a-h refer to how the literature was addressed in terms of up / downscaling (a — clearly defined global impact for a specific ΔT against a specific baseline, upscaling not necessary; b — clearly defined regional impact at a specific regional ΔT where no GCM used; c — clearly defined regional impact as a result of specific GCM scenarios but study only used the regional ΔT; d — as c but impacts also the result of regional precipitation changes; e — as b but impacts also the result of regional precipitation change; f — regional temperature change is off - scale for upscaling with available GCM patterns to 2100, in which case upscaling is, where possible, approximated by using Figures 10.5 and 10.8 from Meehl et al., 2007; g — studies which estimate the range of possible outcomes in a given location or region considering a multi-model ensemble linked to a global temperature change.

In particular, the research indicates that seasonal and regional changes in temperature and, to a certain degree, precipitation can be estimated solely on the basis of carbon dioxide emissions, which makes it simpler to study the effects of climate change.

If, unknown to us, the bias changed over time (because of changes in the regional distribution of temperatures), then the change in bias is incorporated into the estimate of the «trend».

These range from simple averaging of regional data and scaling of the resulting series so that its mean and standard deviation match those of the observed record over some period of overlap (Jones et al., 1998; Crowley and Lowery, 2000), to complex climate field reconstruction, where large - scale modes of spatial climate variability are linked to patterns of variability in the proxy network via a multivariate transfer function that explicitly provides estimates of the spatio - temporal changes in past temperatures, and from which large - scale average temperature changes are derived by averaging the climate estimates across the required region (Mann et al., 1998; Rutherford et al., 2003, 2005).

Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850