Sentences with phrase «estimate the uncertainty arising»
Then you hit the problem of how many patterns to retain (e.g. Steig et al. and responses) or to what extent to constrain the variance of each pattern, or to estimate the uncertainty arising from the excluded patterns, or how to deal with the jumps introduced by varying the number of patterns with the available data...
https://judithcurry.com/ Not exact matches
When differences in scaling between previous studies are accounted for, the various current and previous estimates of NH mean surface temperature are largely consistent within uncertainties, despite the differences in methodology and mix of proxy data back to approximately A.D. 1000... Conclusions are less definitive for the SH and globe, which we attribute to larger uncertainties arising from the sparser available proxy data in the SH.
The cooling in the graph shown is indeed 0.1 °C only as you observed, the 0.3 °C arises when we, conservatively, estimate all uncertainties in the modeling and the forcings.
These estimates are subject to a further uncertainty of more than ± 0.1 °C arising from the uncertainties in the pre-industrial values and in the values from each individual dataset.
Initial condition uncertainty arises due to errors in the estimate of the starting conditions for the forecast, both due to limited observations of the atmosphere, and uncertainties involved in using indirect measurements, such as satellite data, to measure the state of atmospheric variables.
Uncertainties of estimated trends in global - and regional - average sea - surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea - surface Uncertainties of estimated trends in global - and regional - average sea - surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea - surface uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea - surface temperatures.
From the cost estimates presented in the investigated studies it follows that at wind penetrations of up to 20 % of gross demand (energy), system operating cost increases arising from wind variability and uncertainty amounted to about 1 — 4 $ / MWh of wind power produced (Fig. 5).
The very high significance levels of model — observation discrepancies in LT and MT trends that were obtained in some studies (e.g., Douglass et al., 2008; McKitrick et al., 2010) thus arose to a substantial degree from using the standard error of the model ensemble mean as a measure of uncertainty, instead of the ensemble standard deviation or some other appropriate measure for uncertainty arising from internal climate variability... Nevertheless, almost all model ensemble members show a warming trend in both LT and MT larger than observational estimates (McKitrick et al., 2010; Po - Chedley and Fu, 2012; Santer et al., 2013).
«The uncertainty that arises from comparison of various models is compounded by the fact that instrumental records of ENSO are not sufficient - ly long to test the accuracy of any given model performance; these records are simply not long enough to provide robust estimates of natural ENSO variability.»
«Despite the wealth of metadata that is now available, it is not possible to estimate the biases in an exact manner so an attempt has been made to assess the potential uncertainties in the biases that arise from assumptions made in the process of aggregating the information.
Further uncertainties in the estimated significance levels arise from the use of model internal variability simulations and relatively short instrumental observations (after subtraction of an estimated greenhouse gas signal) to estimate the natural climate variability.