Church and White (2011) examined sea level data from both tide gauges (TGs), satellite altimeter data (Sat - Alt), and
the estimated contribution to the sea level rise from various sources (Figure 4).
In AR5 WG1 SPM there are interesting changes compared with AR4 WG1 SPM concerning
the estimated contributions to sea level rise from different sources (mm per year):
Not exact matches
From that number, they have calculated Greenland's
contribution to sea level rise over that time, which they
estimate to be about 10
to 17 percent of the total global
sea level rise of about 1 foot since 1900.
The findings «lend support
to our confidence in recent
estimates of
sea level rise and the increasing ice sheet
contribution,» said Michael Oppenheimer, the Albert G. Milbank professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University's department of geosciences, in an email
to The Post.
«Alaskan and immediately adjacent Canadian glaciers supply one of the largest measured glaciological
contributions to global
sea level rise (~ 0.14 mm yr - 1, equivalent
to new
estimates from Greenland).
The review of Sheperd and Wingham 2007 gives a best
estimate of 0,35 mm / yr for present
contribution of Greenland + Antarctica
to sea level rise.
For example, if this
contribution were
to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges of
sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m
to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited
to assess their likelihood or provide a best
estimate or an upper bound for
sea level rise.
For observed 20th - century
sea level rise, based on tide gauge records, Church et al. (2001) adopted as a best
estimate a value in the range of 1
to 2 mm yr — 1, which was more than twice as large as the TAR's
estimate of climate - related
contributions.
For the 1961 - 2003 period they clearly note: «For the period 1961
to 2003, the sum of climate
contributions is
estimated to be smaller than the observed
sea level rise.»
Their results yielded two surprises: The melt rate for glaciers and ice caps outside Antarctica and Greenland made a smaller
contribution to sea -
level rise than had been
estimated, and the melt rate in the Asian mountains, including the Himalayas, was dramatically lower: 4 billion tons annually versus up
to 50 billion.
This resolution adds confidence
to recent
estimates of individual
contributions to 20th century
sea -
level change and
to projections of GMSL
rise to the end of the 21st century based on them.»
The researchers behind the study recorded the progress of ice caps and glaciers throughout the world over an eight - year period in order
to estimate their
contribution to sea -
level rise.
Previous models
estimated Antarctica deglaciation contributed 24 - 37 meters of
sea level rise, but that
contribution has now been reduced
to just 6 - 14 meters.
Present uncertainties of ice shelf mass loss are large, however, with
estimates of their
contribution to sea level rise ranging from a few centimeters
to over one meter.
And more recent
estimates of the Antarctic mass balance
contribution to sea level rise has the East Antarctica ice sheet gaining mass at a more accelerated pace for 2003 - 2013 than the mere +14 Gt per year identified by Shepherd et al. (2012) for 1992 - 2011.
The
sea level rise from this
contribution is subtracted from the total
sea level rise to obtain another
estimate of steric
sea level rise.
Gornitz et al. (1997)
estimate that ground water is mined at a rate that has been increasing in time, currently equivalent
to 0.2
to 1.0 mm / yr of
sea level, but they assume that much of this infiltrates back into aquifers so the
contribution to sea level rise is only 0.1
to 0.4 mm / yr.
However, the amount of water stored in this ice is
estimated to be less than 0.5 m of
sea -
level equivalent (Lemke et al., 2007), so the
contribution to sea -
level rise can not be especially large before the reservoir is depleted.
IMBIE is an international collaboration of polar scientists, providing improved
estimates of the ice sheet
contribution to sea level rise.
As with IMBIE 2012, it will collate, compare, integrate, interpret, and report satellite
estimates of ice sheet mass balance, with the overall aim of producing a community assessment of Greenland and Antarctica's ongoing
contributions to global
sea level rise.
Hay et al. (2015) argue that rates of
sea level rise between 1.0 and 1.4 mm yr - 1 close the
sea -
level budget for 1901 — 1990 as
estimated in AR5, without appealing
to an underestimation of individual
contributions from ocean thermal expansion, glacier melting, or ice sheet mass balance.
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides
estimates of the cryospheric
contributions to the acceleration of
sea -
level rise, including Greenland, Antarctica, and small ice caps and mountain glaciers (22), although these measurements only start in 2002.
However, mass balance observations are needed for
estimating the
contribution of glacier melt
to sea level rise, so are discussed further in Chapter 11.