Sentences with phrase «estimated feedback factor»
They give an equation to determine the probability of a temperature rise of ΔT, given an estimated feedback factor f and the error on its determination σ (f).
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/ Not exact matches
Since Milankovitch factors are excluded as small, BUT they do exist and by ignoring them you are introducing an increasing underestimation of the incoming solar radiation (& its impact on solar irradiance and on water vapor etc feedbacks), then why is there not an uncertainty estimate for this or better yet an actual estimate of what the under estimation is?
But it could be even worse — with the GHG feedback added in, the full response from the paleoclimate effects looks like it could multiply the IPCC estimates by a factor of 4 to 6.
«Researchers (17, 18) estimated mean and SD of feedback factors calculated from two different suites of climate models.
If the IPCC number of 1 C for a doubling of CO2 is wrong, then the estimate of the contribution of feedbacks is wrong by the same factor.
For the sake of brevity, I took the «official» values of the CO2 radiative forcing and of the Planck parameter as correct, and pointed out to the audience that the major debate between the skeptics and the believers centers on the overall feedback gain factor, which — in the IPCC's implicit central estimate — is 2.81, almost tripling the warming that a CO2 doubling causes before feedbacks are taken into account.
Thus, estimates of cloud feedback require process - level understanding and modeling of the nontrivial factors on which clouds depend.
As can be seen, the «constant RH assumption» exaggerates the actually observed moisture increase with warming by a factor of around 10:1 (and hence the model - based water vapor feedback estimates).