Sentences with phrase «estimated uncertainty»

Also some of the available reconstructions estimate the uncertainties in the reconstruction.

Combining this with the uncertainties of the proxy data outlined in Fig. 2 we can roughly estimate the uncertainty of our solar forcing value to be 50 %.

Our experiments suggest that both statistical approaches should yield reliable reconstructions of the true climate history within estimated uncertainties, given estimates of the signal and noise attributes of actual proxy data networks.

Also the different data sets are estimating the uncertainties in different ways, as reflected by the much different width of the shaded uncertainties.

The examples in the post actually demonstrate how one might use past returns to estimate the uncertainty of future returns.

Her work explores observed trends in droughts and heat waves and estimating the uncertainty associated with observations.

For China's annual emissions in 2008, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency estimated an uncertainty range of about 10 %.

«Hence essentially all countries could estimate uncertainties around their reported data if they chose.»

Given current uncertainties in representing convective precipitation microphysics and the current inability to find a clear obser - vational constraint that favors one version of the authors» model over the others, the implications of this ability to engineer climate sensitivity need to be considered when estimating the uncertainty in climate projections.»

Adding up components of the Earth energy budget (evaporation, thermals, clouds, albedo, etc) sums estimate uncertainties - but OHC is a direct measure of TOA imbalance.

From Figure 1 it looks as though a window of no more than 120 months, and preferably only 60 months is desirable to capture the changing distribution of temperature anomalies, however a shorter window may not provide enough data to reliably estimate the uncertainty.

Then you hit the problem of how many patterns to retain (e.g. Steig et al. and responses) or to what extent to constrain the variance of each pattern, or to estimate the uncertainty arising from the excluded patterns, or how to deal with the jumps introduced by varying the number of patterns with the available data...

The Project uses an Ensemble Filter data assimilation method which directly yields each six - hourly analysis as the most likely state of the global atmosphere, and also estimates uncertainty in that analysis.

We refer to an interpolated data set (Schäfer - Neth and Paul 2003) from which we use the variance V = (1.41 °C) 2 as the starting point to estimate an uncertainty range for the spatial mean of the data field.

Indeed, the bizarre resulting claim by MM of anomalous 15th century warmth (which falls within the heart of the «Little Ice Age») is at odds with not only the MBH98 reconstruction, but, in fact the roughly dozen other estimates now published that agree with MBH98 within estimated uncertainties.

Question from a novice: how is this spacial noise — or poor spatial correlation — taken into account when estimating the uncertainty on the average temperature?

A comparison of bootstrap approaches for estimating uncertainty of parameters in linear mixed - effects models

The AWI researchers have devised mathematical methods that allow them to estimate the uncertainties and potential sources of error while assessing various paleoclimate archives, and to take these factors into account in their analyses.

The measured differences in the mass - to - charge ratios are compatible with zero within the estimated uncertainties, in agreement with expectations for CPT symmetry.

Given the estimated uncertainties in their method, the researchers place an upper limit on methane in the martian atmosphere of 1.3 parts per billion, as they report online today in Science.

«We did a lot of work to estimate the uncertainties in the analysis that result from those gaps.»

In the study published in the Canadian Journal of Forest Research, the role of year - to - year variation in weather conditions was examined by increasing the estimated uncertainty of litter input originating from tree needles, foliage and fine roots by a 5 % random error.

And my response to your specific question would be «neither», within the context of the estimated uncertainties in the respective curves.

«The 2 \ sigma uncertainty in the global mean anomaly on a yearly basis are (with the current network of stations) is around 0.1 ºC in contrast that to the estimated uncertainty in the absolute temperature of about 0.5 ºC (Jones et al, 1999).»

The 2 uncertainty in the global mean anomaly on a yearly basis are (with the current network of stations) is around 0.1 ºC in contrast that to the estimated uncertainty in the absolute temperature of about 0.5 ºC (Jones et al, 1999).

Let's compute the warming rate using each 30 - year segment of the Berkeley data, together with the estimated uncertainty in that rate, using an ARMA (1,1) model for the noise just to feed the «uncertainty monster.»

When comparing 2017 to 2015, the smaller difference is less than the estimated uncertainty.

Bond et al. (2004) estimated the total current global emission of BC to be approximately 8 TgC yrâ $ «1, with contributions of 4.6 TgC yrâ $ «1 from fossil fuel and biofuel combustion and 3.3 TgC yrâ $ «1 from open biomass burning, and estimated an uncertainty of about a factor of two.

The similarity of these observationally - based «NAO book - end» trend maps with those derived directly from the leading EOF of the set of 40 CESM - LE SLP trend maps (Fig. 2) attests to the robustness of the results, the utility of the method of Thompson et al. (2015) to estimate uncertainty in trends from the statistics of a Gaussian time series, and the fidelity of CESM's simulation of the NAO.

While the estimated uncertainties in these reconstructed series are substantial, they suggest that the very large 1982/83 and 1997/98 warm events might be outside the range of variability of the past few centuries.

To estimate the uncertainty range (2σ) for mean tropical SST cooling, we consider the error contributions from (a) large - scale patterns in the ocean data temperature field, which hamper a direct comparison with a coarse - resolution model, and (b) the statistical error for each reconstructed paleo - temperature value.

The new report, for example, slightly reduces the lower end of the estimated uncertainty range for the amount of warming scientists expect in response to a doubling of CO2 concentrations compared to preindustrial levels.

To estimate the uncertainty in an average or a trend, all that is required is to calculate the average or trend for each of the 100 realizations, and estimate the uncertainty from the distribution of the results.