Sentences with phrase «estimates account for uncertainty»

Only a few estimates account for uncertainty in forcings other than from aerosols (e.g., Gregory et al., 2002a; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003); some other studies perform some sensitivity testing to assess the effect of forcing uncertainty not accounted for, for example, in natural forcing (e.g., Forest et al., 2006; see Table 9.1 for an overview).

Not exact matches

Home birth is uncommon in the United Kingdom and uncertainty exists about its safety.1 2 Almost all mortality figures available nationally1 provide merely a single global figure for planned and unplanned home births, though the constituent rates differ greatly.3 The only recent figures for planned home birth in England and Wales relating to 19794 and 19935 provide an inaccurately low estimate of risk because it was not possible to account for those mothers who originally booked to have a home delivery but ended up delivering in hospital.

However, as pointed out by the authors, this estimate does not account for forcing uncertainties.

Ideally, one would want to do a study across all these constraints with models that were capable of running all the important experiments — the LGM, historical period, 1 % increasing CO2 (to get the TCR), and 2xCO2 (for the model ECS)-- and build a multiply constrained estimate taking into account internal variability, forcing uncertainties, and model scope.

When differences in scaling between previous studies are accounted for, the various current and previous estimates of NH mean surface temperature are largely consistent within uncertainties, despite the differences in methodology and mix of proxy data back to approximately A.D. 1000... Conclusions are less definitive for the SH and globe, which we attribute to larger uncertainties arising from the sparser available proxy data in the SH.

So, I interpret this as scything that the IPCC's best estimate is that 100 % of the warming since 1950 is attributable to humans, and they then down weight this to «more than half» to account for various uncertainties.

These measurements become sparser as we go further back in time, hence trend estimates become more uncertain; of course we fully accounted for this uncertainty in our analysis.

Ideally, one would want to do a study across all these constraints with models that were capable of running all the important experiments — the LGM, historical period, 1 % increasing CO2 (to get the TCR), and 2xCO2 (for the model ECS)-- and build a multiply constrained estimate taking into account internal variability, forcing uncertainties, and model scope.

Finally, not only did K et al not use a reasonable amplification factor for land, but they also did not account for the inherent uncertainty in the estimate of amplification.

Not only is its central estimate relatively distant from (warmer than) the prior record, but even accounting for known uncertainties, and their known shapes, it still emerges as easily the most likely warmest year on record.

During recent years (1993 — 2003), for which the observing system is much better, thermal expansion and melting of land ice each account for about half of the observed sea level rise, although there is some uncertainty in the estimates.

However, taking account of sampling uncertainty (as most more recent detection and attribution studies do, including those shown in Figure 9.9) makes relatively little difference to estimates of attributable warming rates, particularly those due to greenhouse gases; the largest differences occur in estimates of upper bounds for small signals, such as the response to solar forcing (Allen and Stott, 2003; Stott et al., 2003a).

Lyman and colleagues combined different ocean monitoring groups» data sets, taking into account different sources of bias and uncertainty — due to researchers using different instruments, the lack of instrument coverage in the ocean, and different ways of analyzing data used among research groups — and put forth a warming rate estimate for the upper ocean that it is more useful in climate models.

It seems likely to be a combination of factors / definitional differences — as Dr Rogelj says — account for the difference between the IAM and non-IAM budgets, as both physical climate uncertainties and technical / societal uncertainties regarding how much we are able to reduce contributions to warming from non-CO2 matter to estimates of remaining budgets.»

It also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability.

They (under) estimate the error in the OLS reconstruction, but they do not account for any other uncertainty.

Given current uncertainties, our global - scale estimate of reservoir GHG flux does not account for ice cover, but see the supplemental materials for an estimate of the extent to which ice cover could reduce annual - scale emissions (assuming no turnover emissions).

Choosing lower and upper limits that encompass the range of these results and deflating significance levels in order to account for structural uncertainty in the estimate leads to the conclusion that it is very unlikely that TCR is less than 1 °C and very unlikely that TCR is greater than 3.5 °C.

Because Schwartz's model is simpler it is easier to account for and quantify the uncertainty in it (in fact much of the uncertainty in complex GCMs is hidden eg see Stainford et al referenced in the post), so if you take the view that you are interested not just in the mean but the variation in the estimate Schwartz's model, despite being simpler, gives you better information.

Furthermore, on these times scales the differences between MSU data sets are often not larger than published internal uncertainty estimates for the RSS product alone and therefore may not be statistically significant when the internal uncertainty in each data set is taken into account.

Whilst the system is devised to accurately account for the range of possible outcomes, as expressed by our ensemble spread and projection uncertainty, there is still a possibility of the actual outcome falling outside this estimate.

These estimates for the response of the AMOC to future anthropogenic forcing rely on our «best guess» for many of the complex model details, and do not account for uncertainty in the model input parameters.

However, these estimates for the response of the AMOC to future anthropogenic forcing rely on our «best guess» for many of the complex model details, and do not account for uncertainty in the model input parameters.

Prepare a «traceable account» of how the [uncertainty] estimates were constructed that describes the writing team's reasons for adopting a particular probability distribution, including important lines of evidence used, standards of evidence applied, approaches to combining / reconciling multiple lines of evidence, explicit explanations of methods for aggregation, and critical uncertainties.

For instance, he emphasizes that when computing uncertainty in a trend estimate you have to take into account something called autocorrelation, which means the noise isn't the simple type called «white noise.»

Uncertainty is estimated by the variance of the residuals about the fit, and accounts for serial correlation in the residuals as quantified by the lag - 1 autocorrelation.