Since then,
estimates for liquidation proceeds have been included in each quarterly report but have not varied significantly.
Not exact matches
Accounting rules are designed to give the best
estimate of
liquidation value
for debt investors, not to measure the capital used to generate returns, which is what matters to equity investors.
The difference between our
estimates for NTII's net cash value and its
liquidation value is the $ 9M in ARS, which we've discounted by 20 % to $ 7.2 M, and which the company believes will eventually yield full value.
We
estimate its
liquidation value to be 57 % higher at $ 13.9 M. Brean Murray Carret's original 13D filing disclosed its intention to tip out ARCW's board and «nominate an alternative slate of directors
for election to [ARCW's]'s Board of Directors at the earliest possible opportunity.»
Our updated
estimate for the company's net cash value is set out below (the «Book Value» column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the «Liquidating Value» column shows our
estimate of the value of the assets in a
liquidation):
The
estimates of
liquidation value in the DEF 14A may have been good at the time, but the situation has certainly changed
for the better.
How
estimates look after accounting
for what has happened since the original
liquidation estimates
We
estimated the
liquidation value to be anywhere from nil to $ 259M or ~ $ 10.85 per share and the net cash value from nil to $ 228M or $ 10.54 per share, so it wasn't a typical
liquidation play
for us.
On page 30 there is a table outlining their
liquidation estimates for the company.
We have adjusted the September 10Q balance sheet to account
for the sale of the SEN JV and to back out several other payments and projected it forward to March (the «Book Value» column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the «Liquidating Value» column shows our
estimate of the value of the assets in a
liquidation):
Interested as I am in the firm as a going concern, as opposed to its
liquidation value, I would likely assess the probability of a cash shortage and that would lead to an
estimated cost of capital
for future CF, but if I discount further the value of negative CF there's a risk of double dipping on the cash burn situation.
The latest
estimate of
liquidation distributions, made in late July 2016, was
for $ 10.61 per share (which excluded $ 7.75 per share in previous distributions).
The Proxy statement requesting shareholder approval
for the
liquidation, first issued in mid-May, continued to use the first quarter NAV
estimates of
liquidation proceeds, $ 13.79 to $ 15.79 per share.
Our updated
estimate for the company's
liquidation value is set out below (the «Book Value» column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the «Liquidating Value» column shows our
estimate of the value of the assets in a
liquidation):
There was only a statement that the
liquidation proceeds
for common shareholders would not be less than the lower end of NAV
estimated as of the end of the first quarter, $ 13.79 per share.
The summary of our
estimate for the company's
liquidation value is set out below (the «Book Value» column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the «Liquidating Value» column shows our
estimate of the value of the assets in a
liquidation):
The potential
for an acquisition of Northstar at a valuation materially in excess of the
estimated liquidation value reflected in management's
liquidation analysis, or the potential
for a strategic transaction that would significantly mitigate shareholder risks from continued operations, was also discussed.
Our board of directors considered the fact that we were in the early stages of considering strategic alternatives that could create more value
for shareholders than the Tang Capital proposal, that the directors believed that continuing to execute on our strategic plan, which included conducting the PROSPECT II clinical trial and continuing to develop our Renova ™ Cortical Stimulation System, could ultimately create more value
for shareholders than the Tang Capital proposal, and that management had prepared an informal
liquidation analysis which showed that the
estimated liquidation value of Northstar at that time was greater than the price in the Tang Capital proposal.
[** Exited holdings, except TLI: LN
for which I've adopted an
estimated final NAV, since it's now delisted / scheduled
for a
liquidation payment in Jan..
If, prior to its dissolution, the Company receives an offer
for a transaction that will, in the view of the Board, provide superior value to stockholders than the value of the
estimated distributions under the Plan, taking into account all factors that could affect valuation, including timing and certainty of payment or closing, credit market risks, proposed terms and other factors, the Plan of
Liquidation and the dissolution could be abandoned in favor of such a transaction.
Set out below is our adjusted balance sheet
for AVGN (the «Book Value» column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the «Liquidating Value» column shows our
estimate of the value of the assets in a
liquidation):
Trilogy has now launched a tender offer
for ABTL at $ 0.35 per share, which is at our
estimate of ABTL's $ 15.4 M or $ 0.34 per share net cash value, but at a substantial discount to our
estimate of ABTL's $ 24.3 M or $ 0.54 per share
liquidation value.
It's not unrealistic to think that until then, no significant demand
for these rigs will materialize, so just to be conservative, I'd cut 60m from your
estimate which would be the most recent cash burn extrapolated until
liquidation is possible.
Our
estimate for ABTL's
liquidation value is set out below (the «Book Value» column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the «Liquidating Value» column shows our
estimate of the value of the assets in a
liquidation):
We will have a better
estimate for the likely distribution when the company files its Plan of Complete
Liquidation and Dissolution of the Company.
We'll provide a more full discussion of where we went wrong with these stocks at a later date, but suffice it to say
for present purposes that all were errors from the second bullet point in the Greenbackd's valuation methodology section above (i.e. overly optimistic
estimates for the recovery rates of assets in
liquidation).
With 15.2 M shares on issue, and assuming SOAP spends the full $ 5.5 M reserve
for liquidation costs, SOAP looks likely to yield $ 0.75 per share, the upper end of management's
estimated range and a 15 % return from here.
Trilogy had also launched a tender offer
for ABTL at $ 0.35 per share, which was at our
estimate of ABTL's $ 15.4 M or $ 0.34 per share net cash value, but at a substantial discount to our
estimate of ABTL's $ 24.3 M or $ 0.54 per share
liquidation value.
(10)
Estimated range of cash use
for professional fees related to our
liquidation and dissolution, as well as ongoing SEC reporting requirements.
Re Commonwealth Institute (In Members» Voluntary
Liquidation)[2014] W.T.L.R. 1621 Application by the liquidators
for directions in relation to (amongst other matters) a potential claim against the Government
estimated to be worth in excess of # 18m; acted
for the Secretary of State
for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (an interested party).