The reason why a 1 / S ^ 2 prior is noninformative is that
estimates of climate sensitivity depend on comparing changes in temperature with changes in -LCB- forcing minus the Earth's net radiative balance (or its proxy, ocean heat uptake)-RCB-.
Not exact matches
The emission limit
depends on
climate sensitivity, but central estimates [12]--[13], including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 10
climate sensitivity, but central
estimates [12]--[13], including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment
of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 10
Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit
of the order
of 1000 GtC.
Alec Rawls, on the other hand, points out that if his criticism
of Chapter 7
of the AR5 is valid, and it has been accepted by the authors
of Chapter 7, then the value
of climate sensitivity estimated by Nic Lewis is a MAXIMUM value, which could be less
depending on the effect
of clouds.
Before discussing this, a methodological point affecting
estimates of S needs to be mentioned: results from methods
estimating a PDF
of climate sensitivity depend strongly on their assumptions
of a prior distribution from which
climate models with different S are sampled [Frame 2005].
I hope it keeps increasing as if it does and if temperatures remain stagnent, it could influence
estimates of climate sensitivity to CO2
depending on the time frame involved»
On the other hand the projected positive feedbacks you support, which are COMPLETELY theoretical,
depend on the LEAST understood aspects
of the affect
of water vapor and cloud formation, so the strong feedbacks PROJECTED are the least dependable, while the «OBSERVATIONS» used by Lindzen, Spencer, and others, support the lower
estimates of climate sensitivity.
The emission limit
depends on
climate sensitivity, but central estimates [12]--[13], including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 10
climate sensitivity, but central
estimates [12]--[13], including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment
of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 10
Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit
of the order
of 1000 GtC.
The extent
of the offset
depends on whether
climate sensitivity to CO2 is on the larger or smaller end
of the range
of estimates, and the magnitude
of the solar impact.