«the long fat tail that is characteristic of all recent
estimates of climate sensitivity simply disappears, with an upper 95 % probability limit... easily shown to lie close to 4 °C, and certainly well below 6 °C.»
Not exact matches
I think that the vast majority
of lay readers who read the headlines and the text
of stories on
climate sensitivity do not know this and they
simply presume that the scientists concerned are talking about their absolute best
estimates of the possible temperature increases which may be faced.
We should underscore that the concepts
of radiative forcing and
climate sensitivity are
simply an empirical shorthand that climatologists find useful for
estimating how different changes to the planet's radiative balance will lead to eventual temperature changes.
One
of these years the scientiifc community is going to wake up to the fact that there is no sound scientific basis on which anyone can claim that CAGW exists,
simply because there is no basis whatsoever on which to base any
estimate of climate sensitivity.
«
Climate sensitivity estimates are greatly impacted by such variability especially when the observed record is used to try to place limits on equilibrium climate sensitivity [Otto et al., 2013], and simply using the ORAS - 4 estimates of OHC changes in the 2000s instead of those used by Otto... changes their computed equilibrium climate sensitivity from 2.0 °C to 2.5 °C, for in
Climate sensitivity estimates are greatly impacted by such variability especially when the observed record is used to try to place limits on equilibrium
climate sensitivity [Otto et al., 2013], and simply using the ORAS - 4 estimates of OHC changes in the 2000s instead of those used by Otto... changes their computed equilibrium climate sensitivity from 2.0 °C to 2.5 °C, for in
climate sensitivity [Otto et al., 2013], and
simply using the ORAS - 4
estimates of OHC changes in the 2000s instead
of those used by Otto... changes their computed equilibrium
climate sensitivity from 2.0 °C to 2.5 °C, for in
climate sensitivity from 2.0 °C to 2.5 °C, for instance.
Nevertheless, the IPCC concluded its discussion
of the issue by
simply stating that «uniform prior distributions for the target
of the
estimate [the
climate sensitivity S] are used unless otherwise specified».
Well, it's
simply the
estimate of climate sensitivity for the present
climate — how much would you expect the planet to warm if you doubled CO2?