Sentences with phrase «estimates of equilibrium»

I have written extensively on the shortcomings of the Administration's determination of the SCC (for example, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/obamas-social-cost-carbon-odds-science) and the folks at the Heritage Foundation just yesterday released a report looking at what would happen in DICE model if recent estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity were used in place of the (outdated) ones used by the Administration.

Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750 — 2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate system.

Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived based on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Scientific Report (AR5).

In the Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis Report of AR4 («AR4: WG1»), various studies deriving estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity from observational data are cited, and a comparison of the results of many of these studies is shown in Figure 9.20, reproduced below.

The three successive IPCC reports (1991 [2], 1996, and 2001 [3]-RRB- concentrated therefore, in addition to estimates of equilibrium sensitivity, on estimates of climate change over the 21st century, based on several scenarios of CO2 increase over this time interval, and using up to 18 general circulation models (GCMs) in the fourth IPCC Assessment Report (AR4)[4].

The report offers likely ranges and best estimates of the equilibrium warming that can be expected from various levels of CO2 in the atmosphere:

An updated estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity distribution (ECS)-- a measure of CO2's temperature impact — reduces the 2020 estimate of SCC by more than 40 percent; and

A.) If I wanted to get a rough estimate of the equilibrium warming response to a tripling of the preindustrial atmospheric concentration of CO2eq (so 3 x 280 CO2eq ppm), I would just take my best sensitivity - per - doubling estimate on the bottom bar and multiply it by 1.5?

But, as we have discussed previously, the new, lower estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity is just one of several key variables to which the SCC is very sensitive.

The concept of abrupt climate change does not figure into any estimate of equilibrium sensitivity that I am aware of.

Along with the corrected value of F2xCO2 being higher than the one used in the paper, and the correct comparison being with the model's effective climate sensitivity of ~ 2.0 C, this results in a higher estimate of equilibrium efficacy from Historical total forcing.

No: that is the beauty of using top of atmosphere radiative balance data — it automatically reflects the flow of heat into the ocean, so thermal inertia of the oceans is irrelevant to the estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity that it provides, unlike with virtally all other instrumental methods.

But, nevertheless, Lewis and Curry have generated a very robust observation - based estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity.

From the recent literature, the central estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity is ~ 2 °C, while the climate model average is ~ 3.2 °C, or an equilibrium climate sensitivity that is some 40 % lower than the model average.

The first attempt at a consensus estimate of the equilibrium sensitivity of climate to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations appeared in 1979, in the U.S. National Research Council report of J.G. Charney and associates.

AR4's estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2 - 4 degK / 2xCO2 (90 % ci) or about 0.45 - 0.90 degK / W / m2.

Not exact matches

The presumed duration of the whole human development (a few million years) is so trifling compared with the extent of astronomic time, even at the lowest estimate, that the chance of a variation of the solar equilibrium while the anthropogenesis is in process may be ignored.

Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) was commissioned by Tabcorp to model public benefits of cost savings they anticipated from the merger DAE's Regional General Equilibrium computer general equilibrium model (CGE model) to estimate «broader and long - term economy - wide benefits associated with the merger»Equilibrium computer general equilibrium model (CGE model) to estimate «broader and long - term economy - wide benefits associated with the merger»equilibrium model (CGE model) to estimate «broader and long - term economy - wide benefits associated with the merger» (para 514)

We estimated the DV for each voxel, which corresponds to the equilibrium measurement of the ratio of the radiotracer's tissue concentration to that of its plasma concentration using a graphical analysis technique for reversible systems (38).

Where (equilibrium / effective) climate sensitivity (S) is the only parameter being estimated, and the estimation method works directly from the observed variables (e.g., by regression, as in Forster and Gregory, 2006, or mean estimation, as in Gregory et al, 2002) over the instrumental period, then the JP for S will be almost of the form 1 / S ^ 2.

Inverse estimates of aerosol forcing from detection and attribution studies and studies estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity (see Section 9.6 and Table 9.3 for details on studies).

Mobility, Housing Markets, and Schools: Estimating General Equilibrium Effects of Interdistrict Choice

Unfortunately, these estimates reflect profit margins that remain about 70 % above historical norms, and are primarily driven by unusually large budget deficits and depressed private savings (the deficit of one sector must be the surplus of another in equilibrium — see Too Little to Lock In for the accounting relationships here).

Elevated trace GHG concentrations contributed an estimated positive forcing of approximately 1.7 — 2.3 W m - 2 (Table S5) in addition to that of CO2 and produced equilibrium climate system responses resulting in widespread significant warming, especially in the high latitudes (Figs. 3 and 4).

captdallas2 @ 130 — To become more impressed by the estimate of about 3 K for Charney equilibrium climate sensitivity, read papers by Annan & Hargreaves.

Your attempt to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity from the 20th C won't work because a) the forcings are not that well known (so the error in your estimate is large), b) the climate is not in equilibrium — you need to account for the uptake of heat in the ocean at least.

You can estimate how close to equilibrium the climate must be over such a time period assuming for instance that all the energy imbalance goes to melting ice: an imbalance of say 0.1 W / m2 would over 2000 years melts / grows approx 18m of ice.

Maybe the word «equilibrium» should be omitted from all climate sensitivity estimates, from the shortest term values (TCR) to the longest and most comprehensive (Earth System), since all the different forms of sensitivity estimation seem, in my view, to be looking at somewhat different phenomena and should not necessarily yield the same values.

Hegerl et al (2006) for example used comparisons during the pre-industrial of EBM simulations and proxy temperature reconstructions based entirely or partially on tree - ring data to estimate the equilibrium 2xCO2 climate sensitivity, arguing for a substantially lower 5 % -95 % range of 1.5 — 6.2 C than found in several previous studies.

Even the conventional notion of ECS involving the short - term (Charney) feedbacks doesn't represent an equilibrium result, which is better represented by «Earth System Sensitivity» estimates.

In our paper, based on data from Jason Box from the Geologic Survey of Denmark and Greenland, we estimated that the Greenland ice sheet has already come out of equilibrium since the beginning of the 20th century and has since added about 13,000 cubic kilometers of meltwater to the ocean.

Is there some simple intuitive explanation of how this pipeline warming is estimated with respect to an equilibrium climate sensitivity at a doubling of CO2 equivalent (thus including methane, ozone, aerosols, CFCs...)?

But 3,2 °C is the best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (that is when the runs of models consider all the feedbacks).

The 2,1 - 4,4 °C range of IPCC 2007 (with 3 °C as best estimate) is equilibrium (long term) sensitivity.

Therefore we have still significantly differing estimates for the long tail of the return to equilibrium after the human contribution has been reduced again to a low level.

New, relevant, readily available, and influential science on a topic considered to be a «key factor» in the determination of the SCC — the distribution of the estimated value of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)-- was not included in the 2013 SCC update used in the final rulemaking.

(ppm) Year of Peak Emissions Percent Change in global emissions Global average temperature increase above pre-industrial at equilibrium, using «best estimate» climate sensitivity CO 2 concentration at stabilization (2010 = 388 ppm) CO 2 - eq.

This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS - E2 - R climate model, that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were biased low.

To translate this into 2xCO2 temperature impact (equilibrium climate sensitivity) means that this would be around 0.6 deg C including all feedbacks, compared to the Myhre et al. estimate before feedbacks of around 1.0 degC and the IPCC mid-range estimate including all feedbacks of 3.2 degC.

I estimate dT increased from 1980 to 2010 by about 0.4 K. Given equilibrium climate sensitivity of 0.75 K / Wm2, the amount of forcing neutralised by said dT is; 0.4 * 0.75 = 0.3 W / m2.

If we assume the most likely climate sensitivity estimate is correct (3 °C for the equivalent of a doubling of atmospheric CO2), the equilibrium climate sensitivity parameter is 0.8.

[7] Each individual estimate of the SCC is the realization of a Monte Carlo simulation based on a draw from an equilibrium climate sensitivity distribution to model the impact of CO2 emissions on temperature.

(The equilibrium referred to is that of the ocean — it doesn't include very slow changes in polar ice sheets, etc.) Obviously, the upper tail of the estimated distribution for S is important, not just its central value.

Furthermore, Gillett et al.'s central estimate of the transient response, 1.3 °C, very closely matches the 1.2 °C and 1.5 °C alternative IPCC estimates of warming per 1,000 GtC after 1,000 y from the end of emissions, assuming a midrange equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3 °C to the doubling of preindustrial carbon levels (6).

Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for futureclimate change.

Assuming the same climate sensitivity, Lindzen's estimate of a 2.5 °C drop for a -30 W / m2 forcing would imply that currently doubling CO2 would warm the planet by only a third of a degree at equilibrium, which is well outside the bounds of IPCC estimates and even very low by most skeptical standards.

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces awide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results.

It also states, «No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.»

Note 16 «No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.»

You compare estimates (2xCO2) «equilibrium climate sensitivity» with measurements of the mass of the moon.