Since the heat balance approach does not involve
estimating ocean parameters, it does not provide an estimate of TCR.
Not exact matches
«New satellite method enables undersea
estimates from space: Statistical advance quantifies important
ocean parameters in the illuminated
ocean.»
Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at
Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we
estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity
parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.
Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at
Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we
estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity
parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.
A detailed reanalysis is presented of a «Bayesian» climate
parameter study (Forest et al., 2006) that
estimates climate sensitivity (ECS) jointly with effective
ocean diffusivity and aerosol forcing, using optimal fingerprints to compare multi-decadal observations with simulations by the MIT 2D climate model at varying settings of the three climate
parameters.
The evolution of the global weather for the period 1901 — 2010 is represented by a ten - member ensemble of 3 - hourly
estimates for
ocean, surface and upper - air
parameters.
These algorithms, developed for national and international operational and research satellite programs, convert sensor / instrument measurements into geophysical
parameters such as vertical temperature / water vapor profiles,
estimates of cloud amount, type and phase, and land /
ocean parameters such as sea surface winds, net heat flux, and forest fire intensity / extent.
They are simply a first estimate.Where multiple analyses of the biases in other climatological variables have been produced, for example tropospheric temperatures and
ocean heat content, the resulting spread in the
estimates of key
parameters such as the long - term trend has typically been signicantly larger than initial
estimates of the uncertainty suggested.
The climate models have gotten more complex, for sure, with thousands of
estimated parameters for warming potential, vorticity, circulation patterns, absorption of heat, pressure, energy, and momentum by various layers or atmosphere, land,
ocean, and sea - ice.
So,
ocean thermal inertia should scare us for the warming that gets held «in the pipe», but it should not be a source of LTP - related skepticism on the
estimated magnitude of the GHG sensitivity
parameter?
«The assessment is supported additionally by a complementary analysis in which the
parameters of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) were constrained using observations of near - surface temperature and
ocean heat content, as well as prior information on the magnitudes of forcings, and which concluded that GHGs have caused 0.6 °C to 1.1 °C (5 to 95 % uncertainty) warming since the mid-20th century (Huber and Knutti, 2011); an analysis by Wigley and Santer (2013), who used an energy balance model and RF and climate sensitivity
estimates from AR4, and they concluded that there was about a 93 % chance that GHGs caused a warming greater than observed over the 1950 — 2005 period; and earlier detection and attribution studies assessed in the AR4 (Hegerl et al., 2007b).»