Investors» willingness to believe that
eurozone bond yields are a a single - way bet has been located out in the way that new paradigm pondering about markets always is, eventually.
Treasury yields were pushed lower by falling
eurozone bond yields.
Just because there is a rule stipulating that QE program purchases of sovereign bonds be in relation to GDP, the ECB has and will continue to do «whatever it takes» in order to prevent peripheral
Eurozone bond yields from blowing out to near - reality levels.
The disconnect between this economic outlook and heady
eurozone bond valuations makes us nervous.
All in all, we believe
eurozone bond yields may move a little higher, but any increase is likely to be capped by the ECB's ongoing level of purchases, at least until policymakers start to signal their next steps on monetary policy later in the year.
The expectations for a «bazooka» new stimulus from the ECB are also manifested in the record low
Eurozone bond yields.
For example, it could buy
eurozone bonds in relation to the outstanding debt of each country — a method that would favor the most indebted countries like Italy and Greece.
A reduction from $ 60 billion to $ 30 billion per month was scheduled for the start of 2018, but the dovish tone of ECB President Mario Draghi's accompanying comments — emphasizing that the QE program could be extended beyond September 2018, and giving no indication of an end date — came as something of a surprise to market participants, sparking a rally in
eurozone bonds and a moderate selloff in the euro.
I obviously don't envision actual
Eurozone bonds or funding — I prefer the described guarantee scheme (grafted on each country's debt issuance programme).
Not exact matches
A large share of Italian debt issued under domestic legislation does not have any contract terms and is regulated by an Italian law that gives the Italian Treasury ample latitude to restructure the debt... The composition of Italian public, however, is changing rapidly because in January 2013,
Eurozone members started issuing
bonds with standardized contract terms.
It is the
bond market that will likely push Spain into becoming the fifth
eurozone state to accept a bailout — after Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus.
The yield on Greece's three - year
bond, which has surged from 4 % to 13.5 % since October, is now reflecting serious expectations that the country may end up outside of the
Eurozone and unable to repay its euro - denominated debts.
The
Eurozone crisis could be ended tomorrow if the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it was going to launch a mammoth campaign to continue buying the
bonds of troubled members of the European Community (EC) until growth in EC output and employment bailed them out of their debt burdens.
As the fiscal disasters in Greece and Ireland unfolded, and
bond yields began drifting perilously upward, making it tougher to finance government borrowing, the
eurozone rushed to calm nervous lenders.
He's under considerable pressure to begin buying the
bonds of stricken
eurozone members with reckless abandon.
The most widespread opinion is that the European Central Bank is going to announce a new round of
bond - buying next week to try to stimulate the
Eurozone economy, which will further depress the value of the euro and make the franc yet more attractive.
Treasury yields retreat on Thursday by falling rates in European government
bonds after
eurozone inflation data came in weaker than expected.
The extent of the fallout is anybody's guess, but Greece could see the value of its
bonds plummet, putting its banks in crisis, and ultimately the country could be ejected from the
Eurozone.
By providing liquidity to the broader
eurozone (in the form of its monthly
bond - buying program), the European Central Bank (ECB) is helping to limit the scale and duration of any contagion related to events in Greece.
All markets will continue to focus on the volatility in the equity and
bond markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil prices, and will turn to this afternoon's FOMC Meeting Statement followed by reports tomorrow on UK PMI,
Eurozone PPI, CPI, US Challenger Job Cuts, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Markit Services PMI, ISM Services, Durable Goods and Factory Orders for near term direction.
It also appears that the ECB will concentrate on reducing its purchases of government (rather than corporate)
bonds, but here issuance is increasing, with the net amount of
eurozone government debt set to expand in 2018, in contrast to the contraction seen over the previous 18 months.
Bond yields in some
eurozone countries hit new lows, including countries that might benefit most from the central bank's program.
It was almost exactly a year ago that the E.C.B. set
eurozone precedent by buying government
bonds and other assets.
The impact on asset prices from such a shift in policy gears in the
Eurozone would likely dwarf any negative
bond price effects.
In another unprecedented step for the
eurozone, the central bank will begin buying corporate
bonds as part of the monthly asset purchases.
FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank said on Thursday that it would begin buying hundreds of billions of euros worth of government
bonds in an aggressive — though some say belated — attempt to prevent the
eurozone from becoming trapped in long - term economic stagnation.
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced last Thursday, April 26, 2018, that it would maintain its monetary policy and
bond - buying program, as growth in the
eurozone slowed in the first quarter.
Global
bonds are represented by Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index; EM
bonds by JP Morgan GBI - EM Index; Japan by Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX); the
eurozone by Euro Stoxx 50; and the UK by FTSE 100.
Treasury yields fall after tepid
eurozone inflation data spark German bund rally European government
bonds strengthened as inflation weakensTreasury yields retreat on Thursday by falling rates in European government
bonds after
eurozone inflation data came in weaker than expected.
-LRB-...) their bets against the
bonds of «core»
eurozone countries — not just France, but Germany and the Netherlands too — represent a new, deeper level of bearishness on the single currency area's prospects.
After years of buying
eurozone countries» sovereign debt, the ECB announced in March that it would begin buying select corporate
bonds as well.
We see the inflation outlook as negative for US Treasuries but potentially helping
eurozone government
bonds.
Government
bond yields are negative across much of Northern Europe, amid fears of deflation and stresses in the
eurozone.
We also like US inflation - linked
bonds relative to the richer pricing of medium - term
eurozone equivalents.
European
bond markets initially welcomed the deal made at the July summit, although the narrowing of spreads for peripheral
bonds over German Bunds was relatively muted, perhaps signaling a measure of skepticism among investors about the ability of the
eurozone to survive in the absence of a formal mechanism that ensures the sharing of liabilities among member states.
In reaction to the polls, the spread on French five - year government
bonds rose to its highest level since the
eurozone debt crisis.
The
eurozone does not have a single Pan-European government
bond similar to United States Treasuries.
Admittedly, there has been a visible flight from erstwhile «risk - free» assets in other areas (such as the
Eurozone) to AAA - rated Commonwealth
bonds (see charts below).
Investors were cautious after a largely weak performance on Wall Street on Thursday as some disappointing earnings reports offset strong economic data, while
bond yields slid after a surprising slowdown in
eurozone inflation.
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The conditions have fueled a rally in Portugal's sovereign
bonds so far this year, although they remain the second - highest yielding
bonds in the
eurozone, behind those of Greece.
We also see selected opportunities in inflation - linked
bonds in the U.S.,
eurozone and Japan.
We think the speculation about a potential future tightening of monetary policy by the ECB — whether in the form of a tapering of
bond purchases or a rise in interest rates — has moved too far ahead of the economic and political realities within the
eurozone.
Eurozone inflation has suddenly dipped to its lowest level in more than a year, calling into question plans for the bloc's central bank to end its vast
bond - buying programme.
-LRB-...) The strength of demand for
eurozone «periphery» debt reflected increased investor appetite for higher - yielding government
bonds as well as rising confidence in the creditworthiness of
eurozone economies.
All markets will continue to focus on the volatility in the equity and
bond markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil prices, and will turn to earnings from Apple after the bell today, and reports tomorrow on Japanese PMI, Chinese Caixin PMI,
Eurozone GDP, PMI, Unemployment, US MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Oil Inventories, and the FOMC Meeting Statement for near term direction.
Growth in most of the
eurozone has remained tepid and reliant on continued central bank stimulus, though the European Central Bank's (ECB's)
bond - purchasing program has been hampered by a scarcity of eligible
bonds, as issuance from member governments is restricted by their austerity - driven policies.
Currency, eur, EUR - USD, EUR / USD,
Eurozone Core Flash Estimate,
Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate,
Eurozone Final Services PMI,
Eurozone PPI,
Eurozone Retail Sales, Forex News, French 10 - year
Bond Auction, German Bubas President Weidmann, Market Pulse, Spanish 10 - year
Bond Auction, US Average Hourly Earnings, US Challenger Job Cuts, US Factory Orders, US Final Services PMI, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US Natural Gas Storage, US Nonfarm Employment Change, US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity, US Preliminary Unit Labor Costs, US Trade Balance, US Unemployment Claims, US Unemployment Rate, usd
Assets eligible for purchase in the ECB's $ 1 trillion program are government, agency and supernational
bonds that are domiciled in the
eurozone.
Outright Monetary Transactions are a
bond - buying program announced in September 2012 in which the European Central Bank would offer to purchase
eurozone countries» short - term
bonds in the secondary market to bring down the market interest rates faced by countries subject to speculation that they might leave the euro.