Sentences with phrase «even decadal»

Seasonal, annual and even decadal variations would cancel each other out if measured over a long enough period.

The models do nt attempt to predict weather, are poor at regional prediction and have no skill at even decadal level prediction.

I judge the models implausible on the basis of describing fundamentals — ENSO, PDO, AMO etc — and in predicting even decadal temperature changes.

At the larger, synoptic, scale of oceans and continents, this effect is seasonal or even decadal.

«These campaigns are going to help us better predict the changes we may see on seasonal scales, and even decadal scales.»

«The ECS series was never created to examine annual, or even decadal, time - scale temperature variability.

Borehole reconstructions aren't able to give annual or even decadal variation, yielding only century - scale trends.

If even decadal values are eratic, as is apparent, than a seven year interval is also going to be eratic, and not necessarilly projectable for future trends.

This way, it's crystal clear that even a decadal interruption is perfectly compatible with long term warming, and doesn't indicate low climate sensitivity.

Once Perlan is fully tested, says Austin, she hopes to get funding to use the glider as a long - term scientific platform that would examine how hourly, seasonal or even decadal changes in the stratosphere affect weather and climate.

Not exact matches

Even a business - as - usual strategy, without pursuing any of the new projects recommended in the decadal survey, would leave the agency with roughly $ 200 million in annual commitments to manage its ongoing projects, out of a budget of about $ 250 million.

«Such decadal climate fluctuations are superimposed on the general warming trend, so that at times it seems as if the warming trend slowed or even stopped.

However, that same decadal survey went on to state that «it is too early to determine what the design of that space mission should be, or even which planet - detection techniques should be employed.

The scientific opportunities provide a compelling case for optimizing and advancing the country's system of observatories, even if the National Science Foundation's Astronomical Sciences Division (NSF / AST) does not yet have the resources to implement all of the report's key recommendations without severely impacting program balance — the long - standing priority of the NRC's decadal surveys.

It is the top priority of my research group to try to solve this problem to improve our climate predictions and, depending on the answer, it could affect predictions on all timescales from medium range forecasts, through monthly, seasonal, decadal and even climate change projections.

Willis has even stated that a smaller, but still possibly significant fraction of the annual to decadal heat content variability takes place below 700 meters.

For the most part, I've not seen much evidence to suggest that internal variations alone can bring the climate to a new state on decadal timescales, even if the internal fluctuations do not completely average out over decades (e.g.,, the PDO being in a positive phase more than a negative phase during the timescale of consideration).

When I read the media PR on this, it looked like BEST claimed better statistical methods, leading to lower estimates of the uncertainty in the temperature change - even at the decadal level.

There is even evidence of annual - decadal heat content changes down to 1500 meters.

But to argue against the basic soundness of an average decadal increase rate because there was an EN event or even a large EN event (1998 or 2015/6) seems silly to me because the EN LN wobble is simply a component of the weather in each decade reviewed.

Even in scenario A2 the models produce still slightly negative or near zero decadal trends until 2040 or so.

Pieter Tans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stressed the persistent uncertainty in the range of warming expected from a buildup of greenhouse gases as cutting against the idea of specific thresholds: «Our biggest science problem is that we do not know how strong the climate feedbacks are, or even whether we know all of the ones that are important on decadal and longer time scales,» he said in an e-mail.

If Dan is right on at least part of this, then are there perhaps other GW - induced factors that go into hurricanes, perhaps even go into the decadal cycle which goes into hurricanes, aside from SST?

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

You aren't even discussing decadal trends, which makes me wonder whether you even understand the term.

Even the negative values don't seem negative enough, even after decadal averagEven the negative values don't seem negative enough, even after decadal averageven after decadal averaging.

Even if the paper is wrong and there isn't a decadal interruption this time, there's bound to be one eventually.

Remember that the ocean has a very long memory of initial conditions, and I doubt you wash these out even in multi-decadal predictions, but certainly not in decadal forecasts.

Even in our paper last year we stated that earlier reported decadal variations were not well simulated.

«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations on decadal scale, even on a global scale.

You even admit that your decadal forecasts are «still experimental».

Looking over long term simulations in some of the AR4 models, I've often gotten the impression of a decadal warming / plateau alternation (and in some the Dust Bowl warm years even line up with a warm phase).

When this reinforces the anthropogenic change, it can cause RILEs [rapid ice loss events]-- but it can also counter that change and cause brief periods of near - stability (or even small increases on a decadal scale).

But I would suppose that equilibrium climate sensitivity [background] and even global mean surface temperature on a decadal scale could be better nailed down by model pruning and better ocean data.

«When it comes to decadal predictions that explain anything more than a tiny fraction of the variability in anything more than a tiny fraction of the land area, I have yet to be shown any result that says that this is possible, even theoretically...»

«When it comes to decadal predictions that explain anything more than a tiny fraction of the variability in anything more than a tiny fraction of the land area, I have yet to be shown any result that says that this is possible, even theoretically,» Dr. Schmidt said.

Charles Muller Says at 30 October 2007, 3:49 AM «Lombard et Cazenave 2005 have showed that 20th century sea level thermosteric evolution is still dominated by decadal oscilations, with eventually negative values, even in the second part of the century.»

Lombard et Cazenave 2005 have showed that 20th century sea level thermosteric evolution is still dominated by decadal oscilations, with eventually negative values, even in the second part of the century.

My understanding is that the response of the climate system to even a constant solar influx is highly chaotic, even on decadal time scales.

In general, to have a mean decadal increase in energy imbalance of 0.3 W / m ^ 2, it must be the case that the growth in forcing times (1 - TCR / ECS) = 0.3 Even with ECS and TCR at, respectively the upper and lower end of the likely range from AR5, that requires a decadal growth of forcing of 0.39 W / m ^ 2, significantly more than the figure you derived from the AR5 chart.

And they all assign large economic damage to sea - level rise — even though there is no observational evidence for an influence of short - term (decadal) temperature changes on the rate of rise of sea level.

What any atmospheric scientist knows (I suspect even Judith knows this) is that these brief shallow «pauses» in - between the stronger upsurges are noise from the periodic decadal and multi-decadal oscillations (PDO, AMO) plus strong ENSO years.

Even under unchanged climate and sea level conditions the town site could only have been considered «temporary» on the decadal and century scale.

Nor is anyone informed that during an earlier cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the droughts of the 1950s brought even less precipitation to the region, yet there was still greater river flow and less damage to the bay's fisheries.

Chiefly, there was never any expectation that decadal trends would constantly match the ensemble mean and there was never any expectation that cooling trends across specific decadal periods were now impossible, or even particularly unlikely.

Even a perfect model can deviate significantly from past observed trends or changes, just because the physical system allows variability at decadal time scales; the climate and its trend that we're experiencing is just one of the many climates that we could have had.

I agree that the ambition to make (regional) climate predictions even at decadal or longer time scales can not be supported by the current apparent feasibility, given the studies that demonstrate the lack of predictive skill.

And his predictions are even worse:» The continuing planetary imbalance and the rapid increase of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel assure that global warming will continue on decadal time scales.»

This is why there is little faith placed in CAGW forecasts, any one who knows anything about how the weather really works, understands the real drivers are not even understood enough to used in models yet, and with out considering the background patterns of the seasonal, annual, decadal trends that determine how the weather works, are even used in weather forecasting, in a viable active method, why should ANY confidence be placed in CAGW long range unverifiable modeled forecasts?

Even after this is done, some longer term natural variations remain, most notably a phenomenon called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that causes irregular shifts in the climate roughly every few decades.