Sentences with phrase «even decadal changes»

Once Perlan is fully tested, says Austin, she hopes to get funding to use the glider as a long - term scientific platform that would examine how hourly, seasonal or even decadal changes in the stratosphere affect weather and climate.

Not exact matches

It is the top priority of my research group to try to solve this problem to improve our climate predictions and, depending on the answer, it could affect predictions on all timescales from medium range forecasts, through monthly, seasonal, decadal and even climate change projections.

When I read the media PR on this, it looked like BEST claimed better statistical methods, leading to lower estimates of the uncertainty in the temperature change - even at the decadal level.

There is even evidence of annual - decadal heat content changes down to 1500 meters.

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

When this reinforces the anthropogenic change, it can cause RILEs [rapid ice loss events]-- but it can also counter that change and cause brief periods of near - stability (or even small increases on a decadal scale).

And they all assign large economic damage to sea - level rise — even though there is no observational evidence for an influence of short - term (decadal) temperature changes on the rate of rise of sea level.

Even a perfect model can deviate significantly from past observed trends or changes, just because the physical system allows variability at decadal time scales; the climate and its trend that we're experiencing is just one of the many climates that we could have had.

But why would the first two land use decadal blobs, which represent negative forcing, result in positive temperature change, even if small?

Meanwhile, we can recognise the basic patterns and maybe even predict (multi)- decadal global climate changes.

Eg, even over a 30 - year period (statistically significant WRT climate change), the range of decadal trends starts at -0.05 C for the South pole, and is greatest at 0.45 C at the North pole.

There is so much decadal randomness that small changes in even quite a long baseline can make a big difference.

«These campaigns are going to help us better predict the changes we may see on seasonal scales, and even decadal scales.»

* Bearing in mind the accommodation with nature that humans need to make with even relatively short periods of «different to normal» weather, perhaps it might be more useful for the authorities to consider «noticeable» climate change as covering decadal rather than 30 year periods

I judge the models implausible on the basis of describing fundamentals — ENSO, PDO, AMO etc — and in predicting even decadal temperature changes.

The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.