Recent projections show that for
even the lowest emissions scenarios, thermal expansion of ocean waters21 and the melting of small mountain glaciers22 will result in 11 inches of sea level rise by 2100, even without any contribution from the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.
Not exact matches
Even with a
low climate sensitivity, high
emissions scenarios will lead to warming exceeding the nominal 2 °C target.
Alarmists would like to eat the cake, and to have it at the same time: when pressed why temperature didn't go up according to
scenario A, they say
emissions,
even without drastic cuts, were
lower than projected.
PV conversion also has
lower GHG
emissions throughout the life cycle than do cellulosic biofuels,
even in the most optimistic
scenario for the latter.
Even in «
low emission» climate
scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide
emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20 - 25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century.
Compiled by 80 scientists from 12 countries, it highlights detectable scientific evidence of impacts on marine life, from microorganisms to mammals, which are likely to increase significantly
even under a
low emissions scenario.
If the entire grid were coal, you could double that (7,800 pounds), so
even in that worst - case
scenario, you'd still have far
LOWER CO2
emissions from a plug - in Prius than from the average new car on the road running on gasoline.
Note that
even with the
lower climate sensitivity, the model shows the planet warming 3 °C by 2100 in this
emissions scenario (see the figure caption for further details).
With the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs thus unlikely to stabilize in this century (
even for the
low SRES
scenario) without major policy changes, from an
emissions perspective, we are not on track for meeting the objectives of UNFCCC Article 2.
If the growth rate is brought to zero linearly over the next 15 years, the Chinese
emission rate curve looks like the
lower (blue) curve and would have
lower cumulative
emissions than the abrupt
scenario even if there are no reductions in
emission rate beyond 2030.
This inertia is also the reason for the relatively small difference in sea - level rise by 2100 between the highest and
lowest emissions scenario (the ranges
even overlap)-- the major difference will only be seen in the 22nd century.
I suspect that given the paucity of knowledge in relation to clouds and aerosols (not to mention cycles)... the original X factors for the equation ranged through values that at the
lower end produced no scary warming
scenarios for the future doubling (ie at or
lower than 1.5 C) to those that were very scary at 3 - 4.5 C — or
even 6 C if you add strong feedbacks from melting ice, permafrost and
emissions of methane.