And the TLT data are more sensitive to ENSO
events than surface temperature data (Figure 1).
Not exact matches
The visualization shows how the 1997
event started from colder -
than - average sea
surface temperatures — but the 2015
event started with warmer -
than - average
temperatures not only in the Pacific but also in in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
But sea
surface temperatures in tropical areas are now warmer during today's La Niña years (when the water is typically cooler)
than during El Niño
events 40 years ago, says study coauthor Terry Hughes, a coral researcher at James Cook University in Townsville, Australia.
The CPC officially considers it an
event when the sea
surface temperatures in a key region of the ocean reach at least 0.5 °C, or about 1 °F, warmer
than average.
They combined this information with the land
surface temperatures measured by satellite and found that more
than half a million people — about 10 percent of the population — inhabit neighborhoods that are most vulnerable to heat
event health impacts.
To be an «extreme»
event, sea
surface temperatures have to drop over 1.75 degrees Celsius lower
than normal, as the map below shows.
What this will mean is that a El Nina will have more effect on
surface temperatures than a similar sized
event in the past.
It is clear that the random occurrence of a summertime block in the presence of the projected changes in future
surface temperature would produce heat waves materially more severe
than the 2010
event.
17 El Nino verses La Nina El Niño La Niña Trade winds weaken Warm ocean water replaces offshore cold water near South America Irregular intervals of three to seven years Wetter
than average winters in NC La Niña Normal conditions between El Nino
events When
surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are colder
than average The southern US is usually warmer and dryer in climate
If the magnitudes of El Nino
events are greater
than the magnitudes of an equal number of La Ninas, which they have been, sea
surface temperatures for Australian waters should rise, and they did.
-- In the
event that the Administrator or the National Academy of Sciences has concluded, in the most recent report submitted under section 705 or 706 respectively, that the United States will not achieve the necessary domestic greenhouse gas emissions reductions, or that global actions will not maintain safe global average
surface temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration thresholds, the President shall, not later
than July 1, 2015, and every 4 years thereafter, submit to Congress a plan identifying domestic and international actions that will achieve necessary additional greenhouse gas reductions, including any recommendations for legislative action.
Again for example, during multidecadal periods when El Niño
events dominate, the tropical North Atlantic trade winds would be on average weaker
than «normal», there would be less evaporation, less cool subsurface waters would be drawn to the
surface, and tropical North Atlantic sea
surface temperatures would rise.
Then, less
than seven months later, what he called «an unusual sea -
surface temperature spike» caused another moderate to severe bleaching
event.
Their two main results are a confirmation that current global
surface temperatures are hotter
than at any time in the past 1,400 years (the general «hockey stick» shape, as shown in Figure 1), and that while the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are clearly visible
events in their reconstruction, they were not globally synchronized
events.
As recently as a few thousand years ago, sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) in the South China Sea were at least 2 °C warmer
than they are today, and mass coral death
events routinely occurred due to severe bleaching.
El Niño
events tend to show up more prominently in tropospheric
temperatures than in
surface temperatures.
Perhaps solar cycles or volcanoes coincided with some of the ENSO episodes thus moving
surface temperatures more
than they usually do for an ENSO
event.
The IPCC has already concluded that it is «virtually certain that human influence has warmed the global climate system» and that it is «extremely likely that more
than half of the observed increase in global average
surface temperature from 1951 to 2010» is anthropogenic.1 Its new report outlines the future threats of further global warming: increased scarcity of food and fresh water; extreme weather
events; rise in sea level; loss of biodiversity; areas becoming uninhabitable; and mass human migration, conflict and violence.
I read: Concurrently, the
temperature in the ocean
surface layers was lower
than normal during the warming
event and higher
than normal during the cooling
event.