The radiocarbon determination will be more than two standard deviations (of the combined radiocarbon and calibration uncertainty level) below
the exact calibration curve value for the true calendar date in 2.3 % of samples.
The SRLR method sets its 97.7 % bound at two standard deviations above the radiocarbon determination, using
the exact calibration curve to convert this to a calendar date.
Not exact matches
The key point here is that the objective Bayesian and the SRLR methods both provide
exact probability matching whatever the true calendar date of the sample is (provided it is not near the end of the
calibration curve).
One can think of there being a nonlinear but
exact functional
calibration curve relationship s14C = c (ti) between calendar year ti and a «standard» 14C age s14C, but with — for each calendar year — the actual (true, not measured) 14C age t14C having a slightly indeterminate relationship with ti.
For both variants of the uniform prior subjective Bayesian method, probability matching is nothing like
exact except in the unrealistic case where the sample is drawn equally from the entire
calibration range — in which case over-coverage errors in some regions on average cancel out with under - coverage errors in other regions, probably reflecting the near symmetrical form of the stylised overall
calibration curve.