Sentences with phrase «exactly model past»

The ten or twelve IPCC climate models all had very different climate sensitivities — how, if they have different climate sensitivities, do they all nearly exactly model past temperatures?

Not exact matches

I do think they can be taught in the classroom — I think most of us can think of a teacher in our past who helped us develop one or more of those skills — but I don't think we yet have an ideal model for exactly how to teach them in the classroom.

But over the past year, physicists at CERN have found that the Higgs boson is acting exactly as the incomplete standard model of particle physics predicts, leaving us with no clues about how to extend it.

The auto industry hasn't exactly been predictable over the past decade, but one thing we have learned to count on is that if there's an all - new Mini model, a John Cooper Works (JCW) version won't be far behind.

I've had almost exactly the same vision of the «future of book stores» kicking around inside my head for the past year or so... it's the only model that makes any sense at all.

According to the paper, Orange County Animal Control considered Loews» past efforts a «model program» — exactly what one would expect from a chain of «18 distinctive luxury hotels and resorts» that's gone out of its way to appeal to vacationing pet owners through its Loews Loves Pets program.

Well, exactly this assumption, that the model climate sensitivity is about 3.5 °C, has been seriously challenged in the past few years in the scientific literature.

Gavin's statement that attribution — which only deals with phenomena in the past or present — is necessarily «model based» is exactly the sort of revelatory statement that means that he spent exactly zero time trying the benchmark his attribution approach against the accumulated wisdom of the experts.

How often in past years have we heard that weather is not climate by alarmists when it behaves in ways that does not support AGW but then when it does, all of the sudden it is exactly what AGW models predicted?

RealClimate is wonderful, and an excellent source of reliable information.As I've said before, methane is an extremely dangerous component to global warming.Comment # 20 is correct.There is a sharp melting point to frozen methane.A huge increase in the release of methane could happen within the next 50 years.At what point in the Earth's temperature rise and the rise of co2 would a huge methane melt occur?No one has answered that definitive issue.If I ask you all at what point would huge amounts of extra methane start melting, i.e at what temperature rise of the ocean near the Artic methane ice deposits would the methane melt, or at what point in the rise of co2 concentrations in the atmosphere would the methane melt, I believe that no one could currently tell me the actual answer as to where the sharp melting point exists.Of course, once that tipping point has been reached, and billions of tons of methane outgass from what had been locked stores of methane, locked away for an eternity, it is exactly the same as the burning of stored fossil fuels which have been stored for an eternity as well.And even though methane does not have as long a life as co2, while it is around in the air it can cause other tipping points, i.e. permafrost melting, to arrive much sooner.I will reiterate what I've said before on this and other sites.Methane is a hugely underreported, underestimated risk.How about RealClimate attempts to model exactly what would happen to other tipping points, such as the melting permafrost, if indeed a huge increase in the melting of the methal hydrate ice WERE to occur within the next 50 years.My amateur guess is that the huge, albeit temporary, increase in methane over even three or four decades might push other relevent tipping points to arrive much, much, sooner than they normally would, thereby vastly incresing negative feedback mechanisms.We KNOW that quick, huge, changes occured in the Earth's climate in the past.See other relevent posts in the past from Realclimate.Climate often does not change slowly, but undergoes huge, quick, changes periodically, due to negative feedbacks accumulating, and tipping the climate to a quick change.Why should the danger from huge potential methane releases be vievwed with any less trepidation?

You state exactly that which you know within an acceptable confidence interval that is the norm for that discipline, but not by hindcasting, but by making predictions of key variables whose values were not determined in the past, to show the validity of your theory / model.