By
examining public betting trends, sharp money indicators and betting system matches, I have been able to identify which sides and totals offered value to bettors.
Last week in this space
I examined the public betting trends for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals and determined that the Warriors were offering tremendous value as 7.5 - point favorites against the Thunder.
Not exact matches
With that in mind, here are 10 best
bets for 2016, based in part on research from Renaissance Capital, the IPO adviser, which
examines public offering deal pipelines.
Let's
examine the opening lines to find out how
public betting is affecting the lines.
The table below, with data taken from Pinnacle,
examines the performance of road teams on Monday's as we become more selective with our
public betting percentages.
Using
Bet Labs, we
examined how NFL lines move throughout the week to show how one - sided
public betting affects line movement.
Although the only picks we officially endorse are our Best
Bets, I wanted to
examine two heavily
bet conference championship games involving one - sided
public betting.
The sweet spot for tracking reverse line movement varies from sport - to - sport, but our 2016 MLB
Betting Against the
Public Report found that the ideal threshold comes when we
examine teams receiving less than 30 % of moneyline
bets.
Although the return on investment increases as I
examined increasingly one - sided
public betting, our units won drops off significantly.
The first step to creating a good reverse line movement
betting system is to make sure we are
betting against the
public, so we selected the «spread %» filter and chose to
examine those receiving 40 % or less of
public bets.
For example, knowing that teams receiving less than 30 % of
public bets is valuable information, however, if you only
examined the specific data points (i.e. 17 %) with the highest units won, you could create a system with a greater ROI but you wouldn't have learned anything particularly valuable — especially considering that the
public betting percentage could move a single point after placing your
bet, thus falling out of your system.
The next step was
examining whether
public betting was responsible for this line movement.
Using our historical database, I wanted to
examine how
betting against the
public has performed in smaller games (fewer
bets than the daily average) as compared to heavily
bet games (more
bet than the daily average).
The line graph below, which is available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers,
examines how
public betting has affected the spread at Pinnacle.
The line graph below, which is available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers,
examines how
public betting has affected the spread at CRIS.
By
examining historical trends,
public betting trends and sharp money indicators (like steam and reverse line movement), I was able to pinpoint which team was offering contrarian value to bettors.
Typically in this space we
examine the top contrarian teams, and
examine the success of
betting against the
public.
Using the information available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers, I have
examined the latest
public betting trends to determine what's moving the line in three Week 2 matchups.
That's why Sports Insights» team of analysts
examines historical data, line moves,
public betting patterns and our proprietary power ratings each day to identify the most profitable
betting opportunities throughout the MLB season.
We were already well aware that the
public loves to
bet on favorites and thusly the value would come from
betting against the
public and
examining solely underdogs.
Knowing that we would be unable to use our
public betting trends to create a profitable
betting system, we instead chose to
examine how line movement impacted our system's record.
Although
betting against the
public has a winning record at the 35 % threshold, this system doesn't actually become profitable until we
examine teams receiving less than 30 % of spread
bets.
The table below displays how underdogs with high totals perform when we
examine increasingly one - sided
public betting.
Using our
Bet Labs software, we have
examined over 27,000 games to determine the optimal level for
betting against the
public.
The table below
examines the results from
betting against the
public using our money percentages from the 2016 college football regular season.
Since the beginning of the 2005 season, we have released a College Football
Betting Against the Public Report before the start of each new season which examines the optimal threshold for betting against the public using the ticket percentages from our contributing sport
Betting Against the
Public Report before the start of each new season which examines the optimal threshold for betting against the public using the ticket percentages from our contributing sports
Public Report before the start of each new season which
examines the optimal threshold for
betting against the public using the ticket percentages from our contributing sport
betting against the
public using the ticket percentages from our contributing sports
public using the ticket percentages from our contributing sportsbooks.
Knowing that our contrarian strategies have continued to be profitable, we wanted to
examine the line movement in two Sweet 16 games with lop - sided
public betting.
By
examining heavily
bet games, the value derived from
betting against the
public, particularly on home teams, improves by leaps and bounds.
Betting against the
public has been profitable when we look at very basic filters (teams receiving less than half of all
public bets), but the results as we
examine increasingly lopsided
bet games are quite surprising.
As we approach the All - Star break, we wanted to take a step back and
examine how MLB
betting against the
public has fared using a broader prism.
You'll notice that the return on investment continues to improve as we
examine increasingly one - sided
public betting which gives us more confidence in the system.
Our next step was to
examine the profitability of this system when teams are receiving less than 40 %, 35 % and 30 % of
public bets.
Having our initial expectation confirmed, we wanted to see how visitors fared when we used our proprietary
public betting data to
examine the success of
betting against the
public when focusing on road teams.
By
examining the ticket and dollar count in Vegas alongside the
public betting trends from our contributing sportsbooks, we're able to offer a more complete picture of the sports
betting marketplace.
Keeping with our theme of ridiculously one - sided
public betting, we
examine this weekend's AFC West showdown between a potential Super Bowl contender and the favorite to land the number one overall pick in next season's draft.
Using the data available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers, I have
examined three Week 11 games featuring extremely lop - sided
public betting.
This week we will
examine line movement from three of the most interesting games, while comparing
public betting trends from our seven contributing books and the Las Vegas based William Hill sportsbook.
This week's analysis
examines three interesting matchups, and helps to explain how
public betting is impacting the line across the sports
betting marketplace.
Examining the individual
betting trends at our contributing sportsbooks provides additional insight into
public betting.
In this week's episode David and Dan break down recent NBA
betting trends,
examine potential upcoming series prices, highlight the importance of game time when
betting against the
public, and much more.
Instead of focusing on these large road «dogs, we wanted to continue highlighting contrarian value by
examining our
betting against the
public strategy and teams fitting our most profitable late season trends.
Knowing that our contrarian strategies have continued to be profitable, we wanted to
examine the line movement in three games with lop - sided
public betting.
In this week's edition we
examine three games with extremely one - sided
public betting, including two divisional rivalries.
Last week in this space, we
examined three of Saturday's most heavily
bet games and re-iterated how the value of
betting against the
public is amplified in marquee games.
In this week's edition, we chose to
examine three of these heavily
bet games and determine how the influx of
public money has affected the line.
This season we have already posted our latest
Betting Against the
Public Report and explained which teams were being overvalued according to oddsmakers, but we wanted to
examine the most interesting line movement for the early Week 1 games.
Although we're admittedly dealing with a fairly small sample size, it's interesting to note that the return on investment (ROI) continually improves as we
examine games with increasingly one - sided
public betting.
Knowing that contrarian favorites with low totals had been consistently profitable, I wanted to
examine increasingly lopsided
public betting.
This system, which
examines the sweet spot for
betting against the
public, has gone 147 - 84 ATS (63.6 %) all - time including an 11 - 7 ATS (61.1 %) record this season.
By
examining some of the top historical
betting trends and identifying sharp money indicators, we can inform bettors on how they can capitalize on
public perception.