As for CO2 concentrations, i find it interesting to note that they stay «on the tracks» of projections, while CO2 emissions seem to recently
exceed emissions projections (see Global Carbon Project).
Not exact matches
Since 1880, 531 gigatons have been emitted and
emissions should not
exceed 800 gigatons of C for a better than 50 - 50 chance at keeping global temperature rise below 2 degree C.) «We can not emit more than 1000 billion tons of carbon,» Stocker says, noting that the IPCC numbers on which such regional and global climate
projections are made will be available to anyone.
This isn't news to top climate scientists around the world (see Hadley Center: «Catastrophic» 5 — 7 °C warming by 2100 on current
emissions path) or even to top climate scientists in this country (see US Geological Survey stunner: Sea - level rise in 2100 will likely «substantially
exceed» IPCC
projections, SW faces «permanent drying») and certainly not to people who follow the scientific literature, like Climate Progress readers (see Study: Water - vapor feedback is «strong and positive,» so we face «warming of several degrees Celsius»).
Chris Field, the director of the department of global ecology for the Carnegie Institution, was widely cited for warning last month that
emissions of greenhouse gases were already
exceeding recent
projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of which he was a member.
On the other hand the Atmospheric CO2 content did not rise as predicted by Hansen and even though the world has
exceeded the
emissions level of scenario A; the concentration has not followed suit and is below the scenario A
projection.
Anthropogenic carbon
emissions lock in long - term sea - level rise that greatly
exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies.
Further, it is pointed out that the enhancement of carbon sinks is already included in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change agreements, and, moreover, that IPCC
projections rely on unspecified negative
emissions (often inappropriately assumed to be implausibly large deployments of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)-RRB- to prevent high probabilities of temperature rises
exceeding 2oC.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model
projections for 2100
exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas
emission scenarios.
Davis et al., 2013 note that «actual annual
emissions have
exceeded A2
projections for more than a decade,» citing Houghton, 2008 and Boden et al., 2011.
The report's co-author, Prof Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and professor at the University of East Anglia, says, «Global CO2
emissions since 2000 are tracking the high end of the
projections used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which far
exceed two degrees warming by 2100.