ESMs and combined observation / ESMs use what are called «threshold
exceedance budgets».
Still this unfounded probabilistic interpretation is at the heart of making threshold
exceedance budgets.
This is called a «threshold
exceedance budget» or TEB — Glen Peters has a nice explainer on that (see his Fig. 3).
Not exact matches
This is a multi-faceted problem and there is no one correct way of making a
budget, nor is there a single accepted target temperature or
exceedance likelihood.